Rating: 
Summary: Great economic insight - Large government solutions
Review: A fascinating book! When he is talking about his assessment of global economic conditions, he is very convincing, and the book is extremely well-written. He backs up his statements with lots of charts and tables. The book is divided into four sections - one on the origins of economic bubbles, one on the flaws of the dollar standard, one on the death of monetarism, and the final one on a global solution to the problems he outlines.
It is this last part - on a global solution to the problems outlined - that is the reason I deducted one star from my review. It is not because it is not well-written. Like the rest of the book, it is. I just happen to disagree vehemently about the solution proposed. The solution he proposes requires working within the framework of the World Trade Organization, and/or the International Monetary Fund. In the words of Micheal Badnarik, the Libertarian candidate for president, "[The WTO and the IMF] rely on thousands of pages of confusing regulations and corrupt agreements between multinational corporations and oppressive governments". My belief is that anytime you trust a governmental, or in this case quasi-governmental, organization to fix a problem, the cure tends to be worse than the problem itself. To me, the best fix is to entrust the individual nations, and the individuals within those nations, to make decisions about their future, rather than relying on centralized planning. After all, it was big-government policies that caused the problem in the first place, when it was decided to rescind the gold standard.
Having said that, I highly recommend the book for anyone who wants to know some of the origins of the current global economic situation. I found it fascinating.
Rating:
Summary: Well written and researched
Review: A well written and researched book however I totally disagree with the solution. It appears to me that the solution is not to impose minimum wage controls on the rest of the world to stop them being more competitive than the US, rather the solution is for USA to stop living way beyond it's means. When an individual has gotten himself deep into debt to the point where default seems likely, then the way out (other than bankruptcy) is to increase income, reduce expenditure and pay down debt. This is essentially the same problem but on a much bigger scale. The solution is collect more taxes, reduce public spending and stop borrowing (USA). America has only been able to get away with this for so long because they are the only reserve currency. This is not rocket science and is the most obvious way forward. However this will cause pain for Americans who have gotten too used to a lifestyle that they can no longer afford and only a brave politician would try to implement the harsh realities that need to be implemented to solve this problem. Over time (10 - 20 yrs) a mixture of a falling dollar value(reducing imports)and debt repayment (reducing money supply)due to increased taxes and reduced expenditure will deflate this bubble somewhat. This will only be acheived if the US public is prepared to bite the bullet. The longer they leave it the harder they will have to bite when it blows. One obvious place to start with taxation, is oil. I believe that despite having only 5% of the world population USA consumes 25% of the worlds oil production. The world oil consumption amounts to $500bn per year. I understand that in the US, petrol is around $1 - $1.50 a gallon compared to Europe where it is over $5 a gallon due to tax. Why not double the price by phasing in tax rises each year over 7-10 years. Also tax cars with large engines (over 3ltrs) punitively to conserve oil and reduce its import. Having to give up a 4 ltr car for a 2 ltr one to save money isn't much of a hardship. Taxes could rise by a small amount slowly over many years to bring in more revenue. If America could balance its budget it wouldn't keep flooding the world with fiat dollars. The solution is simply that America must realise that the American dream ended a long time ago and is now a nightmare waiting to happen. No one wants to do anything about it because the solution is one that involves sacrafices. But the party is over so WAKE UP AMERICA.
Rating: 
Summary: Wow! What a waste of time.
Review: After waiting for someone to address the issue of the coming Dollar Crisis, I couldn't have been more disappointed. It seemed the writer just couldn't let go of his Keynesians roots. His attempt at grasping the Austrian Theories was feeble at best. This book is full of redundancies and repetitiveness ( no pun intended). By the time I got to part 4, looking over the chapter titles, I just couldn't take anymore. Any self-respecting Austrian Theorist would have to dismiss the Cures just based on the chapter title alone. Mr Duncan should be embarrassed to have his name on this piece of work. In fact, Mr. Duncan, if you read this I would like my money back.
Rating:
Summary: A bit rushed, yet a valuable book nonetheless
Review: As I write, the Fed has declared victory over the deflationary threat and is getting ready to raise interest rates. Thus, one reading this book would think that its dire warnings regarding deflation constitute old, passe news. They should beware. Duncan wrote this book in order to further educate people amongst the common investor class as well as analysts/economists about how dire the *overall* economic picture is in America. I.E. Said deflationary threat may have seemingly dissipated, yet the larger trends outlined in the book beg the question over whether disinflation/deflation have truly been knocked out in favor of a genuine economic recovery. For any student of economics, political economy or investments, this book will serve as a rare and valuable primer regarding the real reasons why we are the richest nation on the planet, the core reasons for said status, the true nature of "money", and our relationships with other nations deemed as our "creditors". Quantitatively supplemented with charts, tables, graphs, quotes and figures cited directly from sources such as the IMF, Federal Reserve and luminaries/authors in the field (Stiglitz, Soros, Von Mises, Keynes, Friedman, Krugman, et al.), Duncan certainly backs up effectively his core assertions. If nothing else, the book serves as a mini course in global finance and macro-economics, and thus deserves a read. The book didn't get much press or publicity in the U.S. after it was published in 2003. No wonder. Its bearish tone and thesis are hardly qualities that Kudlow and Cramer would rant about, let alone even cite cautiously. However, the book does compliment other compelling texts with similar subject matters such as "Conquer the Crash" by Robert Prechter, Jr., "Financial Reckoning Day" by William Bonner, "The Case Against the Fed" by Murray Rothbard, "The Truth About Markets" by John Kay, "The Mystery of Capital" by Hernando de Soto and even "After the Empire" by Emmanuel Todd -- in describing what would otherwise be washed out in the mainstream media and press. I was initially put off by the grammatical oversights that pop up every now and then, yet later figured that the book practically went from author's computer to the printing press. That's rare, considering the large publisher, yet considering the urgency of the material, I overlooked it. Again, the majority of the content outweighs aesthetic concerns. Also, Duncan can be annoyingly redundant with many of his core points, which, coupled with the above complaint, gives the book's writing the sense that no one else really reviewed said text. Yet, again, the urgency of Duncan's arguments, that our current account and trade deficits are out of control, that foreign creditors are starting to show palpable concern, that current trends resemble past lead-ups to crashes while out-sizing them, amongst other points, mitigate such concerns. The language he uses in describing his latter proposals is rushed and not as empirical as what he revealed earlier, yet his proposals are bold enough to warrant attention. If the reader wholly disagrees with his proposals regarding how to confront and treat our Himalayan-sized global money imbalances, at least the reader has a sober, solid foundation after the first 3/4s of the book for trying to arrive at their own proposal(s). Great book, generally. The type of text that should be required reading at the *high school* level nowadays (yes, indeed, raise the bar...considering what future generations must contend with, debt-wise).
Rating:
Summary: A bit rushed, yet a valuable book nonetheless
Review: As I write, the Fed has declared victory over the deflationary threat and is getting ready to raise interest rates. Thus, one reading this book would think that its dire warnings regarding deflation constitute old, passe news. They should beware. Duncan wrote this book in order to further educate people amongst the common investor class as well as analysts/economists about how dire the *overall* economic picture is in America. I.E. Said deflationary threat may have seemingly dissipated, yet the larger trends outlined in the book beg the question over whether disinflation/deflation have truly been knocked out in favor of a genuine economic recovery. For any student of economics, political economy or investments, this book will serve as a rare and valuable primer regarding the real reasons why we are the richest nation on the planet, the core reasons for said status, the true nature of "money", and our relationships with other nations deemed as our "creditors". Quantitatively supplemented with charts, tables, graphs, quotes and figures cited directly from sources such as the IMF, Federal Reserve and luminaries/authors in the field (Stiglitz, Soros, Von Mises, Keynes, Friedman, Krugman, et al.), Duncan certainly backs up effectively his core assertions. If nothing else, the book serves as a mini course in global finance and macro-economics, and thus deserves a read. The book didn't get much press or publicity in the U.S. after it was published in 2003. No wonder. Its bearish tone and thesis are hardly qualities that Kudlow and Cramer would rant about, let alone even cite cautiously. However, the book does compliment other compelling texts with similar subject matters such as "Conquer the Crash" by Robert Prechter, Jr., "Financial Reckoning Day" by William Bonner, "The Case Against the Fed" by Murray Rothbard, "The Truth About Markets" by John Kay, "The Mystery of Capital" by Hernando de Soto and even "After the Empire" by Emmanuel Todd -- in describing what would otherwise be washed out in the mainstream media and press. I was initially put off by the grammatical oversights that pop up every now and then, yet later figured that the book practically went from author's computer to the printing press. That's rare, considering the large publisher, yet considering the urgency of the material, I overlooked it. Again, the majority of the content outweighs aesthetic concerns. Also, Duncan can be annoyingly redundant with many of his core points, which, coupled with the above complaint, gives the book's writing the sense that no one else really reviewed said text. Yet, again, the urgency of Duncan's arguments, that our current account and trade deficits are out of control, that foreign creditors are starting to show palpable concern, that current trends resemble past lead-ups to crashes while out-sizing them, amongst other points, mitigate such concerns. The language he uses in describing his latter proposals is rushed and not as empirical as what he revealed earlier, yet his proposals are bold enough to warrant attention. If the reader wholly disagrees with his proposals regarding how to confront and treat our Himalayan-sized global money imbalances, at least the reader has a sober, solid foundation after the first 3/4s of the book for trying to arrive at their own proposal(s). Great book, generally. The type of text that should be required reading at the *high school* level nowadays (yes, indeed, raise the bar...considering what future generations must contend with, debt-wise).
Rating:
Summary: A valid crisis - an unlikely resolution.
Review: Author Richard Duncan may not have been the first to highlight the dollar problem, nor is he the only one presently voicing concern. The 'problem' is that global economic growth is primarily driven by the US trade deficit, principally as a result of the strong dollar. The rest of the exporting world reinvests the US$ receipts back into the US to avoid selling dollars and appreciating their own currency (this would make their exports less competitive) and ...well, Duncan's contention is that it can't continue. According to the author, how will the wheels fall off the trolley?
1/ The ability of the US to generate sufficient dollar denominated debt instruments is tied to the large budget deficit.
2/ The budget deficit will eventually contract and balance of payments will be restored.
3/ The effect of (2) will be to force repatriation of the trade surplus ie. widespread selling of the dollar. There is already a well argued case for depreciation of the dollar, and the US Fed appears to have acquiesced to this weakness since the beginning of '03, but Duncan would (correctly) argue the order of depreciation required to solve the problem is much greater. Should the consumer credit binge supporting the US economy falter, perhaps as a result of a housing collapse, a chain reaction of reduced investment and downgraded commercial creditworthiness could be the trigger for a major decline. A decline in the dollar would likely become self feeding through speculative action and a 'rush for the exits'. The book's weakness is in its closing chapters. Duncan proposes a global minimum wage as the solution to persistent trade imbalances. This is a fine academic proposal, but why argue for something that so patently will never occur? 'Crisis argues that a status quo in which the United States trades off its own financial assets in return for imported goods cannot be maintained. The conclusion: a significant fall in the dollar, is made very convincingly.
Rating: 
Summary: wow
Review: been reading lots of eco books of late trying to make sense of how unbalanced things seem (overburdened household sector, japan's problems, internet bubble). here's a book that finally offers a plausible explanation to so many things. don't care much for his suggestions, but his diagnonis of current problems strikes a cord within me. read richard koo's balance sheet recession for additional plausible unconventional interpertation of current global problems.
Rating:
Summary: Well Researched
Review: Duncan does an excellent job of explaining in a technical but understandable way the current dollar crisis. Worth the read, but the reader will need a basic understanding of economics to truly understand the book.
Rating:
Summary: Tremendous effort towards economic literacy
Review: For the uninformed, semi-informed or even the informed who are willing to connect the dots about today's seemingly strange economic times, this book will guarantee a cold sweat. Duncan's book is a comprehensive, one stop portrayal of the prevailing bubble economics that have dominated the planet over the last decade. That process is currently running full tilt and seems terminal. He presents (sometimes redundantly, but bears repeating) the mechanics and impacts of the massive Dollar recycling operations (engendered by America's 5% of GDP trade imbalance: $500 billion plus annually). This in turn creates malallocations of capital, overcapacity, and rolling asset bubbles and busts, that regularly require costly bailouts and cleanup operations. Of course the bailouts are affected by applying even more "liquidity" in the form of more dollars and debt that the world (and especially the US) sorely does NOT need. This monetarism encourages even more moral hazard and bizarre economic behavior (borrowing against inflated assets such a homes to buy even more foreign made goods). The strength of Duncan's book lies in his use of an excellent set of tables and graphics, that allow the reader to piece together the variables and evolution of the dollar and credit bubble. He also offers a clear and concise snapshot of the history of several late 20th century bubbles such as Thailand, Japan and the United States. Additionally an understandable description and history of the reserve system of international trade and capital flow is presented. As the book was writtten in June, 2002, the inquistive reader may be tempted to try and update the book's data. The updates can be tracked by going straight to the sources (Federal Reserve flow of funds data, etc.)that Duncan provides. I can only advise the reader to take anti-nausea medication and skip lunch during this process, as the picture is not pretty.
Rating:
Summary: No one can afford to ignore this book
Review: Globalization is here to stay. Walls have tumbled and so have the barriers to trade. But in the process of creating a global economy that has seen rapid growth in global trade in the last three decades, have we committed any major blunders, atleast in economic terms ?. The answer seems to be an affirmative YES according to the author. During the days till the First World War, gold was the only currency that was acceptable across international borders. While the war led to the departure from this standard, paper currency flooded European markets, leading ultimately to the great depression of the 1930's. This was our first concrete lesson to realize that money, cannot be created out of thin air, for that matter even out of plain paper. Bretton Woods restored the relationship between currency and gold and thereby linked exchange rates. The author explains how a country with trade deficit had to part with gold which in turn led to shrinkage of credit, increase in lending rates, fall in consumption and ultimately the restoration of trade balance. Gold clearly played the role of being the conscience keeper in international markets. A noble metal indeed. With gold standard, everything was working fine and global accounts were balanced. Suddenly Uncle Sam with his insatiable need for foreign goods, thanks to the growing consumer demand at home and increasing military expenditures in his self proclaimed capacity to police the rest of the world, goes on a spending (and borrowing ) spree. The greenback is no longer exchangeable with gold, but in fact would have to be treated to be of value in itself. The rest is history as so well explained in this book. This book devotes atleast a third of its space for graphs, charts and tables taken from published international sources to support the arguments in every chapter. What follows the departure from the gold standard is the generation of a huge US trade deficit with its trading partners over the last three decades. This deficit is paid alteast in terms of accounting, in Dollars that are not backed by gold. This paper money creates the following : - Increase in investments in manufacturing capacities by multinationals in low wage countries
- Increase in capacities creates fall in prices of manufactured goods
- Fall in prices leads to higher purchases by Americans
- Higher consumer spending on foreign goods leads to increase in trade deficit
- US trade deficits lead to more Dollars with trading partners
- Trading partners experience asset appreciation in their countries
- Investments by trading partners in US leads to asset/housing/stock market appreciation. Till here it is fine. It is like the first couple of drinks at the party and everybody is enjoying. But then it does not stop there, unfortunately. The drinks keep pouring in and the music turns to noise. The party soon becomes a nuisance to society. In the above sequence, the asset appreciation leads to asset bubbles and over investments leads to deflationary pressures. This leads to fall in corporate profitability which is followed by the collapse of stock markets and banks. Banks collapse and soon the party is over. The hangover unfortunately lasts longer than the duration of the party. Tigers soon become kittens as we saw in the second half of the last decade in Asia. And the kittens are too drunk even to move. This book presents a very powerful case to argue that America will not be able to continue its trade deficits and that the global economy is on the verge of a collapse thanks to the overvalued Dollar. Overvalued by how much ? 50 % by one estimate. When will the dollar collapse ? Anytime from yesterday. Consequences to various trading partners from Asian Economies including Japan, Latin America to the European Union is well analyzed. China will be the worst hit with its banks already facing up to 50 % non performing loans. Europe seems to be the safest, atleast relatively. Any rescue package ? . Certainly, says the author who advocates a demand side stimulation of the global economy through increase in wages ( in export oriented companies in developing countries) over a ten year period, which would not hurt multinationals since daily wages are too low at $ 4 in countries like China and we can afford to take it to $14 by 2014. With Multiplier Effect, the author explains that this will lead to surge in demand to offset the slump in US Consumption. There is also the need for a Global Central Bank to restore normalcy in international currency standards. Monetarism will fail since we are on the verge of a liquidity trap with near zero interest rates as experienced in Japan. It helped me to brush up my understanding of Macroeconomics and it is advisable to do so before reading this book. What has happened till date is supported by facts. What is likely to happen is frightening. Can I have a drink please ?
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