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Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

List Price: $19.95
Your Price: $13.97
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Love it.
Review: I play a lot of poker and really enjoy games where brain and hard work gives you an edge. I think this book was fantastic and from a historical perspective it was very educational.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Must Read for Accountants et al
Review: The author's (Bernstein) handling of history and the role that risk has played beginning with ancient times and continuing through to today's theories underlying investments such as derivatives (options, etc.) is superb! Beginning with the significance of numbers (which leads to such important developments as probability theory)and running through to modern day risk management techniques, the author develops his points in intriguing style reminiscent of the "James Burke" Connections series. He adequately covers the development of game theory via ancient games and original problems, all the way to modern portfolio theory. Along the way, he helps accountants appreciate the history of their groundbreaking forefathers such as Luca Paccioli, the inventor of double-entry bookkeeping (with extremely interesting insights into his student, Leonardo da Vinci !) and Leonardo Pisano Fibonacci (fibonacci numbers, etc.)while introducing actuaries and other dull souls to the bell curve, regression to the mean, life insurance tables and much, much more. It is exciting reading indeed for us "stereotypical" math and accounting majors! I can't reccommend the book more than to say it is definitely a permanent addition to my library as a CPA, and that I have returned to read it several times since its publication in 1996. It is well written and a "must read" for anyone interested in why history is dependent upon accountants, numbers, and such theory in arriving at today's standard of living.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Biased
Review: This book was an interesting one about risk management. However, I found Bernstein's depiction of the Catholic Church, or any belief in God, to be too simplistic. Perhaps his own bias came out in this book. He fails to mention that for the last 1000 years it was through the support of the Catholic Church that science saw many of its greatest achievements. This isn't a major part of the book, but he does convey overtones of his bias against the Catholic Church. He could have easily edited these parts out, but left them in for the wrong reasons.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Perhaps insurance isn't a Ponzi scheme after all
Review: As a historical reference, this book is a rich and entertaining story, but the greater value is in the understanding of risk it imparts to the reader. While requiring very little business background (other than a natural curiousity in its subject), it succeeds in promoting an awareness about the nature of risk management and lends insight regarding the operation of economic systems. The book explains much about the analytic backbone of capitalism, and how the core of our financial markets have grown alongside our understanding of risk. At the same time, the author always maintains an even keel regarding the use of statistics and their value as a guide. A great work for the non-professional.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Not Bad
Review: If you are a statistician or a mathematician you will find this book a little slow at times. The first half is about the history of Probability and Statistics, the second half deals more with Economics (some applications of Game Thoery) and Finance. If you are new to the filed of Risk manegment and decision making when faced with uncertainty this is a good introduction. If you have been in the field of speculation for a while; this would be a good review of the history of Risk and Probability.
The book does a much better job with introducing the History of Probability and Statistics than it does with Game Thoery and Economics.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Gaming Paves the Path for Economic Development
Review: Peter L. Bernstein postulates that mastery of concept of risk is the divide between the past and modern times.

The book tells the story of a group of thinkers who struggled to understand risk, measure it and weigh its consequences. Their work equipped us with the ability to define what may happen in the future and to elect between the alternatives. Risk management lies at the heart of modern society.

It is not that we are less superstitious or more rational than our forefathers, but this group empowered us to make decisions in a rational mode. Our lives teem with numbers, yet numbers are only tools. Models rarely lend themselves to reality leading many to worry that our break with the past ushered us into an existence that is as confining and arbitrary as the old.

"Markets look a lot less efficient from the banks of the Hudson than from the banks of the Charles," Fisher Black, the pioneering financial academic who moved from the Ivory Tower to Wall Street, once said.

I was struck by how the dice and the roulette wheel were the laboratory for many of the early quantifications of risk. The result of gaming naturally lends itself to a mathematical expression.

The word "risk" derives from the early Italian "risicare," which the author says means to dare. In that sense, risk is a choice; an option we, not the muses, dare implement.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: The Story oif Risk
Review: Very concise reprise of how faith's grip on the mind of man was pushed back a bit to make room for "thinking". The book brings statistics and probability to the fore as a seminal process at the inception of the reformation. It clarifies an important age of mankind. I think the book gets a little skimpy on some of the examples of risk by big players in its history, but this may be due to my sketchy backgrouind in the subject. I was tempted to give it only three stars, but I am in my second reading, that fact alone is worth another star.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Painful, but Intriguing
Review: It was hard to finish this book. I couldn't put it down though, as I kept hoping the author would get to the point. He posed many good questions, but it didn't seem like he answered many. He lost credibility with me because of numerous logical errors.
A technical person should not read this book, maybe it's more for psychiatrists, sociologists, or some other "ists".

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Interesting
Review: If you like philosophy and ideas about how to explain how you are treated in life, then you must read this book. It provides the reader with a mathematical description about how the world works. I am a scientists myself so I enjoyed his arguments and the evidence to support his points. I think the book gave me a new perspective on life, we are all simply a statistic!!

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: What Is Life About: A Book That Adds Insight.
Review: Centuries ago it was considered evil to predict the future. Even games of chance were played with little understanding of the odds. Today predicting the future, while no longer the forbidden fruit, is done with reckless gusto. Games of chance are centuries old demonstrations of how poorly humans deal with the future. Games provide an unbroken leak to modern man that is willing to enter a billion dollar casino and believe there is money there just for him despite the odds.

Those of us that predict for a living understand that it is extremely difficult and the casualness that the average person applies to the task entitles them to poor outcomes. This book has great appeal for those wanting to start over again. The author addresses the history of risk management and puts into better prospective the opportunities for financial reward. There is a degree of risk in any investment or savings strategy. Owning your own business lacks diversification and yet is the shining path to freedom and independence. This book adds to the dogma of throwing away every analytical approach you would use in investing in your own business. The trauma created for individuals and society by treating the stock market as one giant casino is very real. This book encourages that mentality. It has become a seductive point of view as we approach 24 hour trading. You won't learn much about what makes businesses and the economy tick but it will help you consider the wild, dark side of the stock market.

The first half of the book is a historical review of writings on risk and probability. As a history of mathematical ideas about risk it is a good start. The last half of the book in its treatment of stock market concepts and ideas becomes very shabby. As a professional investment person for the last 40 years, I can not help but wonder why the author was so lazy in the writing effort. We can all accept the idea of trying to make a small minor point in building an argument, but why do it clumsily only to then leap at the main points with the reader surprised and unprepared. In the book's last half on the stock market, he superficially reviews academic points that were make by surveys of investor feelings and viewpoints. Bernstein leaves us with the conviction that the quality and construction of these surveys are not to be questioned as they are put together by academics he respects. Sorry, with statistics the devil is in the details that he conceals. Through out the book are sloppy sentences and paragraphs. The editor really fell down on this book. There are many clumsily described observations.

Don't be turned off by the many errors in fact and concepts that other reviewers have pointed out. This may be the first book of its kind that tries to find the foundations for dealing with forecasting the future. Read it as a historical story that gets close to the facts though not dead center. Their is the exciting possibility that the author will encourage greater minds to deal with human behavior and forecasting the future.

The author knows a lot about the stock market and is constantly pulling his punches to simplify the material and broaden the readership of the book. What he starts to reveal to the lay reader is that despite the unremarkable results of institutional investors that dominate the stock market, their resources to research with computers, data bases and human interchange with corporate managers are well beyond imposing and intimidating relative the individual investor.


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