Rating: Summary: Disappointing - Not really about the stock market Review: I bought this book because it was suggested after I ordered other books relating to the stock market and investing. My initial impression after reading the reviews (before ordering) was that it dealt mainly with risk associated with stock markets, but after reading through, I find that it is more of a history book - related to risk, yes - but with very little content or correlation to investing. There are snippets and references but even after half of the book is complete, there is no definite flavour on investing.For those interested in the pure historical development of probabilistic reasoning and risk, this is a well researched book, but for those whose are misled by the notion that it helps you to understand these risks in terms of the market, well, you've been misled.
Rating: Summary: Great read! A must read history for any gambler or investor. Review: Bernstein is a true historian that writes in a very easy to read and engaging style. I had a hard time putting this book down. He takes you through the rise of mankind's understanding of risk from the intervention of gods to gambling with bones to game theory and beyond. This will also get you a quick diploma in the history of mathmatics along the way. Berstein also writes The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession which anyone who likes Against the Gods will also want to read (or anyone who wants to learn about the history of Gold and money).
Rating: Summary: Moral: There is very little new under the sun! Review: As I went through the book, one thing I realized was that we seem to attribute pathbreaking ideas to people without realizing the history behind it all. For instance, it was amazing to learn that Louis Bachelier had derived an option pricing formula (albeit not very robust) before Einstein could discover the properties of Brownian Motion and well before Norbert Wiener's discovery of the Wiener Process! The insight of Daniel Bernoulli on the logarithmic nature of the utility of wealth is in some ways the foundation for Marshallian Utility Theory which in turn, I would argue, is the basis for Lord Keynes' Consumption Theory. This is not to say that we should not give credit to M/s. Black, Scholes & Merton or Lord Keynes but that we should understand that discovery of something entirely new happens very very rarely like Sir Isaac Newton's discovery of Gravity. All in all, a wonderful book. The chapters on Game Theory and Behavioral Finance deserve multiple reads.
Rating: Summary: Very Comprehensive Review: Great book. Very comprehensive in its coverage of risk and risk methods.
Rating: Summary: Very Pleasant Risk Overview Review: Peter Bernstein has written a very entertaining overview of risk. Historical information and application to today's investment environment are both developed in a pleasant read. I wish Mr. Bernstein had included more current examples of fraud induced risks, but he wrote this book before recent structured finance scandals including Enron. I highly recommend a book that is for Wall Street finance professionals, explains how risk propagates due to cash flow manipulation (especially Chapter 8) by Janet Tavakoli: "Collateralized Debt Obligations and Structured Finance".
Rating: Summary: A brilliant primer on the evolution of risk management Review: "Against the Gods" retraces the historical journey of men and their battle in subduing the Gods. From the Oracle at Delphi to modern Chaos theory and Neural networks, Peter Bernstein weaves an enthralling story of the evolution of risk and how it has led to the development of modern financial economics, peppered with brief but colourful tales of the men who have contributed to this edifice. The book could not have found a better author. Bernstein has enough credentials up his sleeves for the task. A professional investor who is no stranger to risk management, he is also a scholar and historian in the area of financial economics. Without being pedantic and too technical, Bernstein did a wonderful task of compressing 300 years of risk-related literature into an entertaining book that can be enjoyed by even a layperson. Against the Gods increases our understanding of the evolution of risk, which is not as quite straight forward as we think. Though we have come a long way since Pascal and Fermat, the story of risk is not over. The book points out some of problems especially in the area of forecasting where a new way of interpreting and measuring risk may be needed. This is a brilliant book which I strongly recommend as an introductory text for anyone interested in risk management. The same goes to professionals and academics, for the historical treatment of the subject matter in the book can offer a new perspective on risk.
Rating: Summary: I'm a trading professional -- and this book is tops Review: Dear Reader: I've probably read 100 investment books ranging from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator to the Wizards trilogy. Much has been written about "Against the Gods" so I won't repeat all the accolades but this classic must be on your book shelf.
Rating: Summary: History of risk analysis, not of risk Review: The book is a reasonably interesting history of the mathematical analysis of risk. Bernstein discusses the development of probability and statistical analysis, and even some of the more modern concepts behind portfolio theory. However, I was disappointed overall. The cover and title misled me---I was hoping for a history of how the understanding of risk and the development of analytical tools led to the development of insurance markets, etc., and fundamentally changed how businesses operated in the face of uncertainty. When a shipper could insure his cargo, instead of just waiting for bad news, how did that change the world? I want to know! Instead, I got to read about who discovered the bell curve. I'm trained in a mathematical field, so I felt the discussion got a bit tedious. I felt, overall, that the discussion was aimed more at explaining the math in layman's terms rather than exploring the impact of these developments on how people do business and make decisions.
Rating: Summary: Insightful Review: Though I'm no investor of bonds and stocks, I happened to pick up Against the Gods in a need to read and learnt of the game of risk that's been so wonderfully played out in this book. There's little technical jargon and what's technical is made very comprehensive, interesting and (when it starts to tickle your mind whilst bringing in insights) entertaining. As if a ballet about Wall St, Against the Gods will offer anyone something for the long or short term, intangible or otherwise.
Rating: Summary: Against the Gods and Trading System Design Review: Firstly , this is an outstanding literature review on the history of risk. My interest in the book is how might help me design or select effective trading systems. The one central idea of the book is that price movements tend to revert to the mean. In other words if the price is breaking through a band or channel placed around a price. The price is most likely to revert to the mean price rather than continue up ( or down) through the band. In the short term. An example of a set of bands are Bollinger bands. Thats it. Simple but very useful piece of knowledge. Btw , a suitable platform and source of published trading systems is wealth-lab
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