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Maestro: Greenspan's Fed And The American Boom

Maestro: Greenspan's Fed And The American Boom

List Price: $25.00
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Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Good reporter, poor book writer
Review: Woodward has never, in my opinion, written a good book. His specialty and genius is the newspaper article. As a result this book is another in a series by him that I find informative but written without verve or excitement. He makes the obvious points: that Greenspan endures political pressures, that he studies a massive amount of data, that he makes statements that are vague and leave room for face-saving exits. Other interesting tidbits include how Greenspan uses cocktail parties with the political elite to find out who is up and who is down and that Greenspan once rubbed elbows with the superficial social philosopher Ayn Rand.

However, I found reading the book a chore, which is sad. I think Woodward has good stories to tell but books are not his medium.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: ALAN GREENSPAN SUPERSTAR
Review: There is a danger of adding to the hype that has already been given to this man and his UNACCOUNTABLE GOVERNMENT AGENCY. It is the danger that such people don't have to answer to ANYONE, including the contitutioned institutions of public government. We should always QUESTION the motives and directions of ALL government officials, ESPECIALLY the popular ones who come riding on a white horse. Has any Senator or Congressman ever broke into his gobbletiegook replies by demanding that he speak ENGLISH so viewers on C-Span or the other networks can understand what he plans to do? If you want a more Main Street version of the Fed and what it means to John and Jane Q. Citizen, read SECRETS OF THE TEMPLE, by WILLIAM GREIDER. Don't waste your time with this book by Woodward.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Much ado about nothing
Review: I found the book Maestro an easy read, but in the end I came away with the impression Woodward's attempts to liven up the often dry matter of macroeconomics as off the mark. To me it reflected another mixed attempt at livening up the dismal science, and the major source of its weakness. For instance, there were severeal references to instances where Greenspan would be concerned that if a certain policy action did not happen, the whole system would "crack" or fall apart. While the 1987 crash and events surrounding the LTCM failure in 1998 were in that category, attempts to sensationalize many other policy dilemmas in this manner between 1987 and 2000 implies either Woodward's lack of a grasp on how complicated economic policy is on an ongoing basis, or is just an attempt to stir the reader's attention.

The other major flaw in the book is the author's numerous attempts to portray Greenspan as some kind of statistical and probability driven humanoid. The (sad?) truth is that every well-trained economist thinks in the mathematical and probabilistic way described, and the good policy economist is one who can temper it with judgment, based on the unseen. Greenspan's genius to me is not his logical style of thinking, but rather his ability to temper it with a good dose of common sense and judgment. And his other genius us clearly his political savvy. Woodward does not emphasize enough the relative importance of these two attributes. The author instead seems enthralled by Greenspan's logical thought process, which to any economist or scientist is only a necessary but not sufficient condition for sound analysis. In any event, Greenspan's policy choice is unidimensional, of raising or lowering interest rates, to maintain growth with low inflation, in a country that has the best available economic data in the world. His genius is not in figuring out what the correct policy is, but rather in seeing the correct policy implemented and building a consensus around it.

What the book does do quite well is demystify the man behind the myth, and shows his insecurities as well as his dilemmas. At some places, it alludes to things that can not be proven (such as his role if any in Felix Rohatyn's failed bid to be Vice Chairman but strongly suggesting Greenspan may have pushed some levers). This comes across as more a starry eyed fan's perpetuation of a mythical figure rather than a hard journalistic hypothesis that we would expect from someone with the immense stature of Bob Woodward.

Overall, the book is interesting to read, but not satisfying in understanding either Greenspan's economic skills, or his ability to carry out policy.

Rating: 1 stars
Summary: Maestro Gone Mad
Review: The appropiate title of this book should be "Maestro Gone Mad". Greenspan overstepped his judgement of the pace of the economy. Instead easing the interest rate rise he continued to bellow the flames. Now the economy has slowed to the point of recession. Tens of thousands of people are layed off. I bet they have a Merry Christmas! No this man Greenspan is no Maestro, at least not any more. He has gone MAD! If he doesn't reverse his policy immediately he should be prosecuted for criminal neglegence!

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Well Worth The Money
Review: Forget the negative reviews others have posted about this book. It is well worth the $15 price that Amazon is currently charging for it.

There are numerous insights into Alan Greenspan, the economy, interest rate hikes, and other issues that can be learned from reading Bob Woodward's work. The book is very well researched, and has dozens of references at the end.

I found the story of the early 1990's recession very interesting. Interest rates were raised much higher back then. It looks like Alan and the Fed learned their lessons during the last episode.

Among the more human interest items in the book, did you know that Alan Greenspan was a skilled jazz musician and could play multiple instruments before he became an economist? Or that he married NBC White House correspondent Andrea Mitchell?

Order the book. If you really want to learn more about Greenspan, you won't be disappointed at this price.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Not Economics
Review: Bob Woodward does an excellent job of describing the personality of Alan Greenspan but does not go deeply into the economic forces at play. Woodward seems to have written the book because the tapes of FOMC meetings older than 5 years were abvailable to him. I thought the writing was rather sloppy in spots. For instance he writes that Greenspan went to Juilliard School of Music for two years after high school graduation. Greenspan then spent some time with a 1940's-style band before attending college, but still managed to graduate with a degree in economics at the age of 22. If this is true I would like to know how Greenspan managed it, but there is no explanation. Also, there is a great deal of discussion about why there is no pressure on wages when the unemployment rate is below 6% Nobody seems to know, expecially Greenspan. It is because of foreign competition. The labor unions lead the way for wage increases and they are intimidated by the fact that many corporations have moved operations overseas to lower wage costs. Certainly, a thorough research would have shown that Greenspan as well as others were aware of this.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: A human view of a superhuman
Review: I just finished Bob Woodward's latest book, Maestro. It is an account of Alan Greenspan's Chairmanship of the Federal Reserve Board. Overall a well written work, it dwells mostly on the inner workings of the FOMC. It also delves into the relationship between the Fed and the executive branch of the government. Accounts of the tensions between Greenspan and various Presidents over the direction of interest rate directives provides for some of the most interesting reading. Also of note is Woodward's account of the Fed's role in various financial crises, particularly Mexico in 1995 and Long Term Capital Management in the summer of 1998. All in all the book offers valuable insight into the workings of the U.S. and world capital markets but does not express those insights in overly complex terms. One of the most important parts of the entire book is not actually in the book - it is instead in the epilogue. As he builds toward his conclusion on Greenspan's place in the present and in history, Woodward remarks that, "Greenspan stands at the crossroads of optimism and pessimism. Each of us is a character in the nation's great economic soap opera; Greenspan is both director and producer." This is a significant observation, for it forces us to acknowledge that our economic realities center not only on laws of supply and demand but also on emotions. Human emotions, at times subject to nothing more than unbridled fear or fervor. It is perhaps the simplest and most powerful realization any of us could reach - and one of the most laborious. Bob Woodward deserves our thanks for his masterful telling of the highs and lows of the economy and the apparent stoicism of Greenspan in dealing with them. Maestro is a profile of a pivotal figure in history. More than that, however, it challenges its readers to step into the shoes of the man who moves markets, leaving them with the distinct impression that he is often as unsure as anybody else (or ar least as unsure as any of his colleagues at the Fed). His attention to detail, coupled with an uncanny intuition for the nature of business gives him the courage to make difficult choices despite this uncertainty. Therein lies his genius.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Technical, but nicely written
Review: This is quite a good book. Eminently readable, although a bit technical and confusing. There are portions that seem to be lifted right out of "The Agenda", but otherwise this is a good book. Woodward's penchant for creating dialogue based on interviews moves the book along nicely, and his information is first-rate. Reccomended for reading!

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Star Struck
Review: Bob Woodward doesn't know much economics and worships Alan Greenspan. These are the two main things that readers will learn from this book. If it wasn't apparent from the title, this book is essential a tribute to the wisdom of Alan Greenspan. Woodward presents an account where Greenspan's judgement is shown correct at every turn, and the doubters are all proven wrong. The result is the best economy in thirty years.

Unfortunately, the history (and economics) is a bit more complex than Woodward would have us believe. To take the most obvious example, it is not clear that the U.S. economy is presently the bright shining star that Woodward assumes. The low unemployment, rapid economic growth, and low inflation are all good news, but there are serious clouds on the horizon. Specifically, the over-valued stock market and the over-valued dollar threaten the economy with a double whammy which could leave the economy reeling for years to come.

Even with the recent decline in the stock market, price to earnings ratios are still close to double their historic average. The Congressional Budget Office (the agency that makes all the projections for the budget that everyone uses in political debates) projects that real corporate profits will actually shrink by about 10 percent over the next decade. This implies that the market is over-valued by 100 percent, or more. A decline of this magnitude would destroy approximately $10 trillion in wealth, or $70,000 for an average family.

Similarly, the United States is running a huge trade deficit which is leading it to borrow $450 billion a year from abroad. A trade deficit of this magnitude is no more sustainable than a budget deficit of $450 billion, as Alan Greenspan and every other economist knows. Reversing this deficit will inevitably require a large drop in the value of the dollar, perhaps by as much as 30 percent. A decline in the dollar of this magnitude will crimp living standards in the United States, as the price of imported goods rise, and also lead to more inflation.

While the fault for the over-valuation of the stock market and the dollar may not lie entirely at Greenspan's feet, he does bear a large share of the responsibility. Back at the end of 1996 (when the market was about half its recent highs), Greenspan did warn about the possibility that irrational exuberance had overtaken the stock market. But most of his subsequent comments were more oblique, leaving open the possibility that stock prices could make sense. Given the seriousness of the problem, it would have been entirely appropriate for Greenspan to use his bully pulpit at the Fed to warn of the consequences of a seriously over-valued stock market. He could have presented lectures on this topic in his Congressional testimony, in the same way that he has lectured about the dangers of budget deficits on numerous occasions. Given Mr. Greenspan's standing in financial circles, it is hard to believe that such lectures would not have had an effect. The same applies to the over-valuation of the dollar.

Woodward is almost completely oblivious to this set of issues. While the possibility of a stock bubble is mentioned at several points, it is never treated as though it were a serious problem. The history of the Great Depression and the current example of a Japanese economy left to stagnate for a decade after the collapse of its bubble in 1989 should have been sufficient to get Woodward's attention.

Similarly, Greenspan gets the final, and often only, word on the disputes of the past. For example, we get the account of his decision to raise interest rates in 1994-5 to head off inflation. Woodward tells us about the objections raised within the Clinton Administration to a policy which slowed the economy and cost jobs. However, at the end of the day, Woodward tells us that inflation remained under control, and the unemployment rate eventually fell to its current levels of close to 4.0 percent.

Woodward seems to feel that this history vindicated Greenspan's rate hikes, when the reality is the opposite. Greenspan raised interest rates because he accepted the prevailing view within the economics profession at the time, that unemployment rates below 6.0 percent would lead to higher inflation. The subsequent history showed that there was no necessary link between the unemployment rate and inflation, and that the unemployment rate could fall far below 6.0 percent without triggering inflation. Had Greenspan not raised interest rates in 1994 and 1995, the economy would have grown faster in these years and the unemployment rate would have dropped more quickly. Millions of people needlessly went unemployed in these years, and the economy lost more than $100 billion in output. History has shown that Alan Greenspan was wrong.

There are many other places where Woodward's naive hero worship and ignorance of economics lead him to go astray. The Greenspan story is certainly an interesting one which deserves to be told. It is unfortunate that this book could not have been written by someone with more understanding of the subject matter and a more open mind on the subject.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Recommended Additional Reading
Review: After reading a review of two new books about Alan Greenspan, I was eager to learn more about this enigmatic man. The question: which book? The long and short of it is that I bought both, and here's why I enjoyed Justin Martin's Greenspan far more than Bob Woodward's new book that is receiving a fair amount of fanfare. Martin's book gives us a vivid picture of Greenspan's early years and the winding path he took to becoming the most powerful economic force on Earth. At each turn, you realize that Greenspan's decisions, while primarily personally motivated, ultimately led Greenspan to a position, which has great influence over our lives today. What would the "new economy" look like if Greenspan had stuck it out as a professional Saxophonist? To me, it is far more interesting to learn about what made the man than to follow a detailed narrative on the Fed (Woodward's book) most of which is recent history and well documented. When Martin explains Greenspan's policy, its implementation and its ultimate influence on the world's economy, we feel we know the man behind it all. If you're really interested in Greenspan (like I am) it wouldn't be a mistake to buy both books, but, by all means, be sure to read Martin's first.


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