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In an Uncertain World: Tough Choices from Wall Street to Washington

In an Uncertain World: Tough Choices from Wall Street to Washington

List Price: $35.00
Your Price: $22.05
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Excellent
Review: Robert Rubin's view of the world makes one nostalgia for the days when public officials owed their first loyalty to the commonweal. His cogent analysis of the world is must reading for anyone with an interest in the economic underpinnings of the world around us.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Preventing Economic Crises in the New World Economy
Review: Robert Rubin, former Secretary of the US Treasury, under President Clinton has written an account of both his life and years in the Clinton Administration. It is clear though, that instead of intending this to be a biography, it is Rubin's attempt to explain to the general public the challenges posed by globalization and the post-Cold War economic system.

During Rubin's tenure as Secretary of the Treasury the Administration dealt with two major economic crises in foreign nations. The first involved Mexico. The Mexican government borrowed too much money abroad and attempted to pacify creditors with payments that would be tied to the US dollar to avoid fluctuation. Unfortunately, the debts were so huge Mexico simply lacked the currency reserves to make these payments. When this became apparent, the Peso, their currency dropped dramatically in value. Mexico was on the verge of defaulting on its foreign debts. Despite heavy criticism and and initial public unpopularity, the US put together an aid package that kept Mexico from defaulting on its foreign debts and possibly precipitating a regional default on debts by other Latin American countries.

The real test for Rubin and other government officials came later in 1997 and 1998 as economic problems developed in Asia. Fixed exchange rates for currency, high import/export ratios and huge foreign debts caused investors to pull huge amounts of capital out of these nations in a short time. Bail out packages involving both the US and the International Monetary Fund had to be put together for Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia. Rubin strongly feels that such bailouts are occasionally necessary simply because the self interest of the US and other modern industrialized countries requires it. Rubin describes the circumstances in which bailouts should occur. He ultimately focuses on whether the country being helped is willing to undertake internal economic reforms to prevent similar problems in the future. If so, generally speaking, a financial bailout may be warranted. Rubin praises those who worked with him, Larry Summers, and, of course, the esteemed head of the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan.

Rubin's description of his years at the Treasury Department are highly interesting. Those outside government may be unaware the Secretary of the Treasury manages such diverse areas as tax collection (Internal Revenue Service), trade and tariff policy, printing the currency (Bureau of Printing and Engraving), and Secret Service (protection of the President). Its a challenging job and perhaps partisan politics is not the best way to pick the head of such a complex organization.

Finally, Rubin worries openly in the book about current government policies. He believes long term deficit reduction is the best guarantee of low interest rates and a growing economy. This can only be obtained by a combination of disciplined spending by Congress and sufficient taxes to decrease the deficit. Rubin sees an unwillingness by Congress to raise taxes even when it would be in the best long-term interest of the economy.

Anyone interested in current affairs simply should not miss this book.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Page turning economics
Review: Robert Rubin, in recounting his years on Wall Street and years in the White House has provided an excellent description of the politics of money, no matter where you are. Rubin recounts his 26 years at Goldman Sachs and describes how the company rose to great stature. He then goes on to describe some of the difficulties that they encountered. In large part, because of politics, not the Washington politics, but office politics. This part of the story was fascinating and Rubin even manages to make something like arbitrage somewhat understandable to the average reader.

The real meat of the story comes when he moves to Washington to work in the Clinton administration. Rubin describes the problems that he and the administration faced in trying to deal with specific financial crises around the world and the difficulty of solving those crises in a political environment that is filled with ad hominem attacks. His central theme is that of an internationalist, the United States must work to promote solid economic systems around the world because it is in our best interests to do so. If we simply sit by and let things happen, the repurcussions will come back to haunt us.

There are several examples that Rubin utilizes to make his point, from Mexico to Russia to Indonesia, he highlights the various economic problems that he encountered as secretary of the treasury. The descriptions he provides of the solutions point to the fact that not all nations can simply pick themselves up by their own bootstraps and make it on their own. Sometimes assistance is necessary. In making this case, he also makes a strong case for both the IMF and the World Bank.

When I received this book, I had to wonder how interesting the job of the Treasury Secretary could be, especially compared to the Secretary of State, or National Security Advisor, but Rubin makes the role of the Treasury Secretary stand out as more than the person who signs the dollar bills. His insights into economics, both supply side and Keynesian is the most readable that I have seen. The explanations and difficulties are covered and even though there is a bias, he is not unwilling to admit that there are flaws.

In addition to the clear writing and explanations, Rubin keeps to the topic he is addressing, his role as Treasury secretary or manager of a major company. He mentions problems that the Clinton administration went through, but only in the context of how it affected his job, which was minimal. When addressing the issues of working at Goldman Sachs or Citigroup, he stays on those issues and doesn't go off into major tangents. Finally, he does show that he has a sense of humor and others in the government have one too.

When I started reading this book, I couldn't put it down. This is a fascinating insight into the world of finance.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Packed with Knowledge!
Review: Robert Rubin, Treasury Secretary in the Clinton Administration, believes in studying probability and risk. To him, uncertainty is part of life. Therefore, his inside look at the Clinton presidency and its global financial policies is carefully considered. He admits his mistakes and recounts his efforts and his successes. He offers tremendous insight on how the U.S.'s top leaders rescued other countries from financial quagmires, and he sounds an important alarm about the disconnect between the country's growing dependence on global trade and its public lack of support for world economic relationships. Rubin carefully walks the line between being self-serving and providing sharp insights. He doesn't offend the Clintons, though he presents events and himself - for this has an autobiographical side, as well - with apparent candor and honesty. He hasn't taken a lot of risks here, but that could reflect his experience. After all, Wall Street might be nearly as cutthroat as Washington. getAbstract.com highly recommends his book for its exploration of the Clinton presidency, its insights into fiscal policy making and its understanding that a nation's economic fate doesn't stop at its borders.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Nice Guy Finishes First (but Doesn't Write a Great Book)
Review: Rubin begins in media res-on the evening after he was sworn in as Treasury Secretary-with a gripping story of how the Clinton administration handled the Mexican currency crisis. His memoir has three phases: his twenty six years spent at Goldman Sachs that culminated in a co-Chairman role, his six years serving under the Clinton administration, and his return to private life as a sort of consigliere at Citigroup. Most of the book, of course, recalls the Clinton years (i.e., 1992-99, where he went from head of the National Economic Council to Treasury Secretary) and they consist largely as a series of budgetary battles, public relations trials, and averted currency crises.

Rubin likes to "tell" almost as much as he likes to "show," so the themes aren't all that hard to find. First, clearly this is a treatise on, and justification of, the importance of probabilistic decision-making in an increasingly complex, interdependent world. And with nary a number, he repeatedly demonstrates a key weakness of traditional market models: they are not able to incorporate the potentially devastating impacts of certain events which are extremely unlikely to occur, but nevertheless are possible (e.g., what if the U.S. government defaulted on its debt?).

Second, politics is yucky business. Here is where I was most fascinated. Rubin manages to paint his political life as much more difficult and challenging than any of his private sector roles. This is virtually a unanimous verdict, as I read it, stretching from the expected (e.g., government strains to serve multiple, conflicting objectives while business ultimately gets to serve only the profit master) to the counter-intuitive (e.g., he apparently had a better work-life balance at Goldman). On important questions-in this book and in his speaking-he likes to divide the issue into a "substantive" piece and a "political" piece, tackling them separately.

Third, this is a modern day Aesop's fable, specifically the one where "nice guys finish first." By finishing first I mean to say that he amassed $100+ million along the way (not in the book, but elsewhere documented) and ended up at Citigroup without direct line responsibility! But seriously, you can see why even Rubin's critics respected him. He is possessed of humility ("anyone who has done well will acknowledge the enormous role played by chance"), candor ("I had no interest in becoming polished at television appearances, nor I suspect the capability to do that"), wisdom, and unbelievably good manners. For example, he was clearly wounded by ad hominem attacks during the 1995 budget fight (in particular, Newt Gingrich has a reoccurring nemesis role, calling Rubin "untrustworthy" on television), but when it comes to personal retorts, Rubin can only manage to praise Gingrich for his understanding of the dimensions of the Mexican crisis.

Finally, experience has led Rubin to believe that it is almost impossible to help ordinary voters understand the complexities of fiscal and foreign policy. He illustrates this expertly when he reviews his role in the debate around Bush's tax cuts in 2001 and 2003, where he dishearteningly cannot find a succinct way to warn of the long-term consequences of a structural deficit in the face of politically resonant messages that attach to tax cuts and spending increasing. He does find a terrific analogy in global warming: no one person experiences current suffering, but there is a small chance that inaction will hurt everybody gravely at some future time.

I wanted to give five stars, having really looked forward to this book. But as a literary work, the book does not reach the greatness of the man. It is ironic that Rubin, who excels at self-deprecating candor, reveals so little that is particularly new or insightful considering that he ran one of the most mysterious, successful organizations (Goldman) ever created; held a catbird seat in the Clinton administration; and is uniquely qualified to opine on the lessons of the raging bull market of the 1990s. The virtue of humility, alas, often makes his achievements appear all too easily-won. His favorite management technique appears to be taking interview notes on a legal pad (it is really endearing the first couple or few times but eventually...).

Perhaps because they are especially memorable, he spends too much time introspecting on his transitions; e.g., virtually all of Chapter Eleven is about him stepping down from Treasury and figuring out where to go next. Oh the agony, but you can skip this chapter and I'll summarize: it's a lot like your last job change, but Sandy Weil is trying to sell you instead of some slimy headhunter. Also, I don't think you should buy the book for the "Rubin Doctrine." These principles are sort of like the Ten Commandments (Number 9: never let your rhetoric commit you to something you cannot deliver...translation: don't make promises you can't keep). You will recognize them, as they are important clichés. It's not so much you need to read them, as politicians need to follow them.

I was disappointed by the lengthy and expected discussion of the rise and precipitous fall of the stock market. Forget the Monica Lewinski admission, the real scandal in this book is that Rubin adds virtually nothing to the stock market discussion beyond the familiar refrain of pent up imbalances that inevitably had to unwind (to his credit, he pretty much confesses as such). He cites the usual culprits, including profitless dotcoms and myopic investors. If you are looking information which is helpful to investing, you won't find much here. But Rubin totally redeems himself in Chapter Thirteen, to my mind easily the best chapter in the book, where he expertly explains both the politics and substance of fiscal policy. This Chapter is worth the price of the book

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Understanding Economics
Review: Rubin spent two terms in the Clinton White House, most of them as Secretary of the Treasury, yet less than a page and a half of this book deals with the Starr Scandals. The Starr conspiracy stole over $70 million taxpayer dollars from the US Treasury under his watch, but that influential scandal passes without mention.
There are enough books on the Starr Scandals and it's likely Rubin decided there didn't need to be another, but it still seems very odd. He is a man self-isolated in finance, admittedly politically naive when he entered government. He exited much the same.
The book succeeds wonderfully for what it is, however. If you want an inside look at high level Wall Street and Treasury Department operations, the managerial process, economic theories, and the like, you won't find anything better than this. It, like the author, is focused.
It's also very biographical. I personally felt that Rubin at the Treasury gave too much weight to Wall Street and free trade, but that the economic philosophy he and the Clinton Administration advocated, as a whole, was correct and good. (the Bush administration, on the other hand, is correct only if you wish to destroy the government, the safety net, and the middle class. As Bush said during his inaugeration "Our long national nightmare of peace and prosperity are finally over.")
RJMcD

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: A Declaration of Interdependence
Review: Rubin's artful tome describes the often tumultuous relationship between economics, politics and philosophy. Rubin touches on all three of these aspects and how his continuing education in life has led him to hold a skeptic's position in modern society. Its incredibly imoportant that one understand this when reading Rubin's work.

Rubin begins his description of his time in the White House by relating to the reader the monetary crisis in Mexico. Step by step, Rubin explains the complicated economic issues involved in dealing with currency policy as well as the deep political issues and tactics he had to use to get US loans secured to the IMF and Mexico. What follows is an insiders account of the major financial events of the 1990's. Rubin explains his reasoning for the boom of the 1990's and provides several reasons for readers to critically evaluate the claims made by his detractors. All in all, Rubin does an excellent job with the economic issues of the day and ends with his vision for a new global economic order.

Perhaps one of the most pleasant characteristic's of Rubin's writing style is that he creates a vivid cast of characters who come alive in the reader's mind. In his almost 35 years on Wall Street, Pennsylvania Avenue, and back, Rubin has done it all. However, his modesty is reflected throughout this book and one almost forgets that the characters in the book are the Secretary of Treasury, or the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, or even the President of the United States.

Rubin ends this book with a theme that is incredibly prevalent but never quite stated, and that is the idea of parallel agenda policies which seek to inspire both political and economic change. The book would no doubt have been clearer had Rubin expressed this theme at the outset of the book. However, even without it, one is presented with a meticulously written and well organized memoir of one man's arrival and stay at the crossroads of politics, economics and philosophy.

Insightful, and almost a little tragic.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Informative
Review: Rubin's book is definitely a page turner. While he does not discuss his own personal wealth and gains throughout his career in detail, he does a great job talking about global economic issues. His detailed account of his time in Washington under Clinton is worth noting. You really get a sense of his thought process, his initial hesitation to issues and finally the ultimate way he is able to understand complex issues relating to globablization and economic policy.

This is an excellent read for anyone interested in economics, public policy, and/or Wallstreet.

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Rationalizing my time with the creep
Review: Take one intelligent, successful man and have him spend more than six years of his life working with and for some of the most unprincipled cretins to ever run this country's government and what you get is 400 pages of self-delusion masquerading as insight. According to Mr. Rubin, the Clinton White House was run like a well-oiled machine, Hillary was open to those critical of her views and George Stephanopopopolous isn't really as dumb as he looks. If you want to take the most fascinating trip through a parallel universe since one of the original Star Trek episodes, read this book. But if you like your nonfiction planted firmly somewhere this side of reality, you would have a better chance of finding it watching Survivor.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: In an Uncertain World: Tough Choices from Wall Street to Was
Review: The 70th U.S. treasury secretary knows about making tough financial decisions.


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