20:21 Vision: Twentieth-Century Lessons for the Twenty-first Century

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Summary: Extrapolation is a pessimist's favourite vice.
Review: That's the central point of this book by the editor of the Economist (the best newsmagazine in english). We cannot assume what afflicted us yesterday will necessarily afflict us tomorrow; the day after, and so on. That's the problem too many suffer from, and not just in today's world. It is a recurrent proclivity that people incline to, probably because it's the path of least intellectual resistance. Folks bemoan pollution, amongst other things, and extrapolate certain figures into self-perceived doomsday scenarios. The problem, according to Bill Emmott, is that too many people are more inclined to see the faults of capitalism than its benefits. It is the only system capable of responding to ever changing situations, stimuli, and new opportunities. Inherent in such a system, of course, is its destructive nature---competition is going to produce successes and failures; companies, industries even, will be eclipsed, over time, by other competing forces. It's a regenerative cycle; and not without painful effects. The job of governments, thus, is to mitigate such pain without overly stifling the system that gives rise to it---for it is this system of capitalism, warts and all, that is responsible for the phenomenal improvement in western societies and substancial gains almost everywhere else. While reading other reviewers of this book it struck me that many were, seemingly, not at all keen on "Capitalism" itself and thus were writing to criticize the system and/or Mr. Emmott for his (hedged) praise of it. The problem for such folks is that they want all the growth that capitalist market forces generate, but with none of the side-effects of it; as if one could have the results desired while removing the drive that creates such in the first place. Mr. Emmott, however, does believe we can mitigate some of the negative side-effects herein, but only that; to be too proactice with regulation and/or central planning is simply going to kill the golden goose, so to speak. Progess is not inevitable, but opportunity does exist---and not just for the part of the world that is already wealthy. And what accounts for the divide between the wealthy world and the poorer is that the former has actively embraced such opportunity. Our global sysyem is not a failure because all haven't shared in it equally. It has been remarkably successful actually, and not because of exploitation either. Colonialism and imperialism were not the cause of the West's success, as Dinish D'Souza has argued. They are the result of that success; thanks to the natural embrace of science and technology by capitalist systems. The system, in other words, is not loaded against any possible participants. Look at the achievements made by many previously dirt-poor states in Asia and---more recently---India, Brazil and Mexico. Embrace of market forces does work and is why states interested in growth eagerly wish to join the World Trade Organization. The idea that because the global economic system bears an American imprint it is an exploitative one, thus, is a canard. China, amongst others, did not embrace the WTO to be exploited. If anything, America is but an enabling power and is, moreover, "the first preeminent power in history whose ideas, if they triumph, would bring about the loss of its dominance." America, ie., wasn't hurt economically by enabling Japan & Germany to recover after WW2. Riches, after all, are not a zero-sum game: the pie grows biggger and bigger through increased globalization. Globalization equals a more stable world & a more stable world is possible as long as America remains engaged & remains willing to deal with threats to such a world. The author hopes, in addition, that more and more participating states will partake of the opportunity to embrace the free, market-driven world & break out of their ideological cul-de-sacs which heretofore have confined them to poverty. It's Bill Emmott's vision for the Twenty-first century. Cheers!

Rating:
Summary: America the all-powerful
Review: This lengthy philosophical treatise from the editor-in-chief of The Economist wanders all over recent history and offers some cautious, well-hedged ruminations about the shape of things to come. It's a pleasure to read, like lounging in a posh boat and drifting down a slow river of thought. The current of thought is almost directionless. Emmott shifts from subject to subject, time period to time period, perspective to perspective easily, with no restraint. He has a little pro-Americanism here, a little underestimating of the Chinese there, but nothing sharp-edged. Readers looking for a succinct point of view will be disappointed; so will those seeking fresh, new ideas. But we understand that those who enjoy considering and decoding the complex web of political and economic forces will be delighted.