War and Punishment

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Summary: Absorbing, Provocative, & Erudite Study Of War Termination!
Review: According to Clausewitz, an understanding of war cannot be meaningfully divorced from political life. Indeed, he maintains, whenever we attempt to do so, the many links connecting the two phenomena are lost and we are left virtually bereft of understanding. One of the several virtues in this tightly argued and scholarly tome by Stanford professor Hein Goemans is its meticulous and careful consideration of empirical evidence in assessing the interaction and influence of such interrelated factors in what he refers to as "war termination". Using the massive data concerning what specific factors helped to finally bring an end to the First World War to create a fascinating case study, Goemans marshals an articulate and convincing argument regarding the fashion in which these mutually reinforcing factors come to bear on the progress toward cessation of hostilities.

Goemans' thesis proceeds from a simple yet provocative premise; that leaders decide to either prosecute or cease fighting at least partly based on how the terms of settlement affect their postwar fate. The author argues that the belligerents make an initial assessment of their chances to succeed in their war aims based on what they learn from their engagements with the enemy, and that such battlefield assessment is a critical factor in determining what is possible in terms of settling the hostilities. He shows how different kinds of regimes blend this assessment with both their understanding of the international structure they are operating within as well as with their own domestic political considerations. According to the author, war settlement is only possible when a situation he refers to as "bargaining space" develops, i.e., both sides come to similar conclusions regarding the likely outcome as well as the advantages of settling now rather than later.

Goemans is at his best when arguing for a more sophisticated appreciation for how this multiplicity of factors interacts in a dynamic setting that is "realpolitik", and demonstrates how such mutually reinforcing factors influence the war goals and determination of future action by individual belligerents. For example, in a telling example Hoemans illustrates that in spite of a stunning defeat at Verdun, the French decided to escalate their war aims; their collective faith in the personal capabilities of Robert Nivelle were so great that they expected to gain the advantage despite all the setbacks. Likewise, his consideration of how domestic political circumstances and the subjective reading of the international situation by both German and Russian officials influenced the course and outcome of the war.

His scholarly approach as well as an unfortunate tendency toward continuing use of very carefully constructed terms and phrases may at times seem a bit repetitive and initially a bit off-putting to the general reader, yet understanding the academic tone of the book, seems perfectly understandable. The author is, after all, writing a book for other academics rather than for a general audience, even though I'm confident that many serious students of military history will find this particular academic book a fascinating and useful read. When all is said and done, this is a very interesting book, and it is one I highly recommend to those students of military history who appreciate the amazingly complex interaction of a welter of factors in determining the onset, progress, and termination of war.

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Summary: Amazing breadth, depth and multiple methods
Review: Goemans has written a remarkable book. He offers a new answer to an oft overlooked question: why do wars continue and why do they stop? This question is all the more important because, as he points out, theories on the causes of war often try to predict why a war broke out, amounting perhaps to an explanation of the first shots fired, or first day a border is crossed. Intuitively, however, this is not why the study of war has such a prominent place in International Relations. Rather, it is the enormous amount of destruction, the lives lost, the cities and towns ruined that make war such a compelling subject. These horrific consequences of war, however, are not explained by any explanations of when first shots were fired, or when borders were first crossed, but must be explained by answering the question what made the war go on! Moreover, as he points out, an understanding of the causes of war termination might be logically prior to any understanding of the causes of war initiation. After all, leaders think about war and its consequences before they decide to get involved. The book also does an admirable job at generating new hypotheses; to pick just one, he presents a novel explanation for why countries sometimes choose to employ risky military strategies. One of the most important strengths of the book is that it does not just pay lip service to different methodological aproaches, but indeed integrates insights from rational choice, quantitative analysis and in-depth case studies. Overall, this is a remarkably ambitious book in many respects; even more remarkable is that Goemans actually pulls it off.

Rating:
Summary: Goemans hits a home run
Review: It is the height of hubris to think that you can write something new, interesting, and important on the subject of war. Armed conflict has been at the center of discussion, writing, and study as far back as there has been writing. But Goemans has actually done it. This book is provocative, timely, and timeless. It should be read by anyone who is interested in war, peace, or history. (The case studies on World War I are easily worth the price of the book whatever you think of the main thesis!)

Rating:
Summary: Goemans hits a home run
Review: It is the height of hubris to think that you can write something new, interesting, and important on the subject of war. Armed conflict has been at the center of discussion, writing, and study as far back as there has been writing. But Goemans has actually done it. This book is provocative, timely, and timeless. It should be read by anyone who is interested in war, peace, or history. (The case studies on World War I are easily worth the price of the book whatever you think of the main thesis!)