Rating: 
Summary: Poorly argued and at times borderline fantastical
Review: If this is what the rest of the world thinks of America (and I don't believe it, rather it's the result of a largely liberal/socialist dominated media) I am scared. Incoherent (and sometimes prejudiced) rant about wealthy but unequal american society, Jewish lobbies (yes, I forgot they control congress and the world). some of the assertions about afghanistan and iraq are delusional (we attacked to impress other countries). This book is complete trash. If I had to guess, Todd is longing for the old French empire
Rating:
Summary: Stunningly Ignorant
Review: If you believe that "women's lib" is a negative for America, that the United States is actually very weak militarily and economically as measured by a rather narrow and conveniently cherry-picked set of statistics and interpretations of those statistics, that America today actually bears a resemblance to past empires (which had small domestic populations and enforced external economies where their enrichment required your poverty, and where military expenditures consumed whole swaths of their economies), that the European Union is the true global power, that Japan is the unrivaled Asian giant, that Russia (despite it's hideous demographic trends) will return as a major power, and that somehow China barely figures into any of this except in some nebulously negative way for the American economy -- or if you're just a European with a burning hatred for the United States and are willing to believe anything a book tells you so long as it predicts coming superiority for you -- then this is your book.On the other hand, if you have half an inkling about virtually any American topic Todd covers, or even a few basic economics courses under your belt, the book will be little more than an exercise in picking your jaw up off the floor. Yes, as another reviewer notes Todd makes wild assertions "but then backs them up with facts and arguments". Unfortunately, this reads very much like an orange grower arguing that because oranges are stored in crates one will have more oranges if one purchases more crates. It's interesting, but in the end makes little sense, and is easily countered by the introduction of competing facts (or, in this case, reality). I also can't help but be amused at the constant reminder that Todd "predicted the fall of the Soviet Union" a whole 12 years before it actually fell. Any true student of economics, political science or history alive in the 60s, 70s, and 80s remembers well that there was no shortage of predictions of the fall of the Soviet Union and what the causes of that fall would be. (Just as there were, and continue to be, no shortage of authors claiming the United States would fall.) And as for the German author promising the book to be "painful truth" - I will only remind him that shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union not so long ago there was a similar flurry of books and articles predicting America's imminent demise. Europe was going to lead the way. And so on, and so on. Less than a decade later the United States improved its fiscal position and nearly doubled its GDP leaving both Europe and Japan far in the dust, all the while spending a small amount of its GDP on building and maintaining an even more formidable military. (I won't even go into Todd's utterly ridiculous assessments of American military power as 'weak'.) Perhaps the German reviewer should turn his attention to the realities of the European Union - deficits as large to the smaller European economies as America's are to its own. A massive military gap that the EU cannot bridge. A shortage of money due to already-high debt-to-GDP ratios. Demographic trends that are extremely negative for Europe's future. And future debt loads for social programs that dwarf anything the United States will face. But I don't expect we'll see Todd writing about this.
Rating: 
Summary: From the man who predicted the collapse of the USSR
Review: In Europe, Todd is highly respected because he was the only academic in the world who, already in the 1970s, predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union, exactly as it happened. He even gained respect among some American intellectuals and advisors to Ronald Reagan.
The style of reasoning is of course very European, but the method remains the same. Looking at trade balances, demography, educational standards and currency movements, Todd uses the same mix he used to predict the fall of the USSR.
Of course, it would be foolish to think that, simply because he's been correct once, means he will be right again.
Still, it's a very revealing study.
However, I deplore the fact that this book has become a bestseller in Europe, because it reinforces the pure "wish" of many Europeans to see the US decay. I don't want the US to collapse anywhere soon (not even if the current dollar low may bring the fall of the American currency as world reserve - with disastrous consequences). The US is our best friend, culturally, our best ally, militarily (hell, who cares if we disagreed ONCE on a military conflict, there will be plenty more where we WILL agree, as Westerners), and the US is our best economic partner.
In short, I consider Todd's book as a thought experiment, nothing more. All in all, I think his biggest flaw is the fact that he underestimates the fantastic dynamic nature of American society, compared to the static nature of Soviet society. That fact alone will break his hypothesis.
Still, his assemblage of arguments is good to think.
Rating: 
Summary: Interesting, but inaccurate
Review: It's interesting reading if you enjoy eccentric writing, but a single statistic can effectively put the lie to Todd's claim of decline for the United States versus Europe: By 2050 per-capita income in the western EU (today's flagship EU economies) will be less than $50,000 (adjusted for projected exchange rates by Goldman Sachs, and this does not even factor in that the bulk of the EU population will be in the poorer eastern EU - this is the best-case scenario for Europe). By 2050, the United States will be approaching half a billion people, with a per-capita income of $84,000. That's nearly 70% higher than the western EU per-capita income. In other words, US per-capita income will actually increase relative to even the most advantaged western European economies. Today US per-capita income is roughly 50% higher than the western European average, whereas in 2050 it will be roughly 70% higher.
Rating: 
Summary: Let's Hope This Man Is Right
Review: Similarly to Todd himself, I found myself over the years the sole defender of America to most of my friends throughout Europe and Australasia. There was a time when I hoped that my country, the UK, would join with the US and abandon any moves towards Europe. However, as Todd points out, much has changed. America the once semi-democratic nation that defended the 'free-world' has now become a problem itself. As some of the American reviewers here demonstrate admirably, the mass of American people are woefully ignorant of most things outside their sphere of day to day life. Flying to the UK just a few weeks ago, the Canadian man sitting next to me explained how being able to receive both US and Canadian news channels he could see how little information the American people were actually getting from their networks. America is rapidly turning into a neo-fascist monolith full of frightened, ignorant and corpulent individuals.
What is clearly needed is a complete restructuring of the American media so that at least the people will be able to make informed decisions based on fact and not propaganda. If America wishes to be the 'hyperpower' that many in the current administration already believe it to be - it must earn this right from the rest of the world because, contrary to popular neo-conservative belief, the rest of the world will not allow a militant America to stormtroop across the globe at whim.
Todd's book admirably provides us with the alternative scenario if America is unable to change. It's well worth reading - particularly if you are an American because your great nation has produced so many wonderful individuals in the past who have helped to make the world a much better place, and it would be a veritable tragedy to throw all this away with abandon. The heart and soul of America appears to be under intense internal threat from a fusion of the Straussian ideologues in the White House, and the right-wing fundamentalist Christians of the Dominionism heresy. It's imperative that mainstream Americans grab their country back with urgency so that we can welcome them with open arms back into the international arena. Hopefully Todd's book will help to urge them on.
Rating:
Summary: Uncompetitive?
Review: Speaking of economic posers - the argument that the United States' economy "cannot compete with Europe and Japan" is mind-boggling, and is the sort of assertion that was made following Desert Storm before the US left its economic competitors in the dust based on a 'peacetime economy'. I'm not sure what economic circles you're running in, but even the Europeans don't believe they are more competitive than the United States, and certainly the Japanese have proven otherwise for themselves. I'm just stunned that anyone could make these claims with a straight face, for one, and then claim they are "widely accepted in academic circles" for another. Which circles, Todd's mercantilists? For the past decade, American companies have resurgently spread what is often derided around the world as commercial and economic imperialism, out-playing and out-muscling competitors in virtually every sector with a few notable exceptions (automobiles and commercial aircraft, for the time being, though these are very likely to shift as foreign markets cycle). These companies are not defense contractors or companies receiving massive amounts of money for defense-related research and development, they're simply American companies doing business 'the American way'. As for arguable per-capita figures, you can certainly argue those particular numbers (which came from Goldman Sachs, a group prone to seeing the glass half-full for foreign economies and half-empty for America's), but in almost every case of every survery regardless of the source you'll find the same trend - over, and over, and over, and that trend is that by 2050 the United States will remain an economic juggernaut, be joined by a handful of new economic superpowers, and that despite Japan and the EU being major economic powers head and shoulders above most others at that point neither will figure in the uppermost tier of economies. Both will have sparkles of greatness over the next two decades, but they are sparkles before long declines. And that is a truly "accepted fact" and has been the driving force behind much of the EU process. It is not to become a counterweight (despite the wishes of current Eurocrats) to the United States or stand eye-to-eye with America and China of the next half-century, it is to survive as an economic entity capable of being relevant in a world where America, China and India will far outstrip their economic muscle and nations like Brazil and Russia will be able to exert their own muscle on the global economic stage.
Rating:
Summary: wrong assesment
Review: The American empire is just beggining, not ending. One American order, that of the Nato and U.N, is falling this is true. But the reality is a new American century is replacing it, not to be outdone by the old. This book is simply flawed, little evidence shows a retreat of America from eminance, rather American power is growing in leaps and bounds and this book turns a blind eye. Seth J. Frantzman
Rating: 
Summary: A little US bashing is always worth supporting
Review: The writer of this book is claimed to have predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union on the basis of a declining birth rate. One wonders if maybe he just got lucky.
The oft repeated premise of this book is simple. America as a great power is in decline. This decline has been masked because a high level of capital inflow has allowed for the maintenance of high living standards despite the collapse of manufacturing. Whilst America retains a large nuclear arsenal and has a large navy and air force its army struggles to win a war against any but small nations. It from time to time will pick on small nations but always those who have a population of less than 30 million say about the size of Iraq.
One wonders if the central plank of the book is a bit wonky. Whilst American secondary industry has collapsed and that has led to pockets of poverty in reality cannot it remain a wealthy country if its service sector is strong?
However the book is not so much a scientific analysis of the modern world but a piece of provocative political writing. It broadly suggests that a move to a modern unified Europe will allow most of the world to simply ignore America. Europe and Japan are the areas in the world which are most productive and Europe's commercial interests are moving in line with Russia's a country which still retains its old nuclear arsenal.
America the author suggests has always been a very different country than Europe. It is a country that is based on the looking down on a large segment of its own society whether that segment be Afro-Americans or Hispanics. It is a country that has no sense of balance in terms of the environment as it has no history of peasant cultivation such as Europe, China or Japan. It is also a country that has not embraced the secularism that is so much part of the modern world.
In reality the book is a bit of a ramble. However it does contain vast amounts of interesting material. Some of the most interesting is the change in birth rates of Islam nations in line with those of Europe. The author suggests that this is due to a similar spread of literacy in the female population. He suggests that whilst America is keen on demonising Arab Islamics the reality is that there is much greater convergence with those societies than appears at first sight.
The book is in its own way an entertaining read if you find America and Americans a bit annoying at times. It can easily be read in a couple of hours.
Rating:
Summary: This is misinformation. The arguments don't make sense.
Review: There are plenty of excellent books criticizing U.S. policies. This is not one of them. The author arguments all fall apart under scrutiny. These arguments include: a) The U.S. is experiencing an inevitable economic decline due to its chronic trade deficit. It is waging wars worldwide solely to maintain its arbitrary will to import cheap goods; b) Europe is the World number one economic power; c) Japan is the economic model by excellence due to a high domestic private savings rate and large trade surpluses; d) Russia will regain its status as a World Power due to its vast oil reserves, and its trade surpluses; e) The Middle East will democratize by itself due to declining demographic growth, and women's rising literacy rates. Emmanuel Todd defends most of the above arguments based on trade balance alone. He belongs to a group of French economists called Mercantilists. They believe you can look at trade balances in isolation. Judging solely on this one measure, he comes to the quick conclusion that the economies of Europe, Russia and Japan are in great shape, and that the U.S. one is in terrible shape. As you already know, this is not so. Adam Smith, in 'Wealth of Nations' proved the Mercantilists wrong back in 1776. So, Emmanuel Todd arguments are more than two hundred years out of date. Adam Smith indicated that labor productivity is far more important to creating wealth of a nation than is trade balances. Adam Smith was the first promoter of free trade, attempting to overcome the predominant protectionism beliefs of the time. But, Emmanuel Todd is a protectionist explicitly against free trade. He states that free trade has lowered the living standards of workers worldwide. You won't find any established economist holding such view. For a simple reason, it does not hold up to the data. Within the field of comparative international economics, Emmanuel Todd avoided mentioning any measurements of economic growth, GDP per capita, and labor productivity. Had he looked at any of these measures, his comparative analysis of the U.S. vs. Europe, Japan, and Russia would have unraveled his arguments. Contrary to Emmanuel Todd's stand, the U.S. is not experiencing a relative economic decline, and a weakening military. Over the past two decades the U.S. GDP per capita has grown much faster than Japan and Europe. The U.S. economic growth is boosted by a high capital investment rate (from both domestic and foreign sources), rising labor productivity associated with flexible labor markets. Demographic and fiscal factors are also supportive of the U.S. maintaining its faster economic growth relative to Europe and Japan. Europe is not bypassing the U.S. in economic performance. Instead, it is falling further behind because of inflexible labor markets, and declining working hours, resulting in now slower labor productivity and economic growth. Europe economic growth rate has steadily declined since the seventies. Over the same period, the U.S. economic growth rate has been far stronger and sustainable. Emmanuel Todd's vision of Japan as the perfect economic model is laughable and over twenty years out of date. Since 1989, Japan's economy has been stagnant with flat or negative economic growth. Also, Japan is a fiscal basket case. For the past several years, its budget deficit has been 6% of GDP, compared to only 3.5% for the U.S. in 2003. Japan government debt as a % of GDP is nearly double the U.S. level. Japan's banking system is bankrupt. Japan needs to reform its banking system, capital markets, and reign in its government spending. But, its political system does not encourage any such reform. The Middle East will not democratize itself on its own because of declining fertility rates and rising literacy rates. The Middle East is stuck with a combination of unfavorable demographic forces, including high fertility rates, women being repressed and lacking access to education. This combined with flat economic growth, results in a youth demographic bulge that is unemployed and frustrated. Many of these youths become terrorists. Russia as a rebounding World power is another absurd argument that does not hold up to the data. With a GDP per capita of only $2,403 (OECD data. 2002), it is a third World country in disguise. Additionally, Russia is experiencing a demographic crisis (rapid shrinking in population) that may unravel any economic progress it has made in the past few years. But, to Emmanuel Todd, Russia is doing great because it has a trade surplus due solely to oil exports. This is nonsense. As a demographer, Emmanuel Todd missed the most important trend: aging. This demographic trend will have far more influence on the relative economic strengths of the U.S., Europe, and Japan, than whether the U.S. has a trade deficit of 4% or 5%. Currently, France spends 15.8% of its GDP on the Elderly vs. only 9.4% for the U.S. This represents a 6.4% of GDP handicap relative to the U.S. This handicap is expected to increase to 9.0% (29.3% vs. 20.3%) by 2040. Trends with other European countries may be more moderate, but the direction is the same. Concerning the fiscal impact of aging population, U.S. demographics are more favorable than European ones. There are more mistakes within the book. But, by now you get the point. This book does not inform, it misinforms.
Rating:
Summary: Interesting ideas even if he is wrong
Review: This book has been a best seller in Europe and is only recently available in English. I heard about it from a politically astute friend in Germany. Emmanuel Todd, who is French, offers a fascinating perspective on world political trends. The United States is the focus of the book but the book also deals with several other countries and regions. One of Todd's theories is that the United States can't succeed as an empire because it doesn't have the productivity to do so. Other developed areas of the world that have been dependent on the United States and have supported the U.S. with investment dollars will soon discover that they no longer need us. Todd believes the theocracies we see in many Muslim nations are only a temporary phenomenon that will be replaced by democracy in this century. He uses information on literacy and birth rates to argue that this conversion is already underway. Todd has some interesting ideas about the relationship between family structures and political systems. He suggests that democracy will take a number of forms, depending on the culture of the country. Todd's credentials include a book he wrote in 1976 predicting the fall of the Soviet empire. Even is his ideas are wrong, they are interesting and provocative.
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