Forecasting Terrorism: Indicators And Proven Analytic Techniques

Rating:
Summary: A Must Read: The Future of Intelligence
Review: Forecasting Terrorism demystifies intelligence methodology and demonstrates how relatively simple and cost effective it is to implement sound, effective intelligence systems, with our current capabilities, resources, and technology.

The key to preventing acts of terrorism is to identify and examine indicators of terrorist activity. As the findings of the 9/11 Commission confirm, terrorist attacks occur after years of careful planning, and these plans always leave a trail, such as movement of weapons, training, target surveillance, travel, and tests of security. Forecasting Terrorism is a methodology that plots 68 indicators of terrorist activity in web-based hypotheses matrices that are linked to raw reports, which are updated daily. It provides near-real-time assessments per location for threat, risk, and vulnerability, and provides safeguards against 38 of 42 common warning pitfalls, not the least of which are policy and politically driven intelligence decisions. By utilizing an intelligence methodology based on indicators and proven analytic techniques tied to daily-updated raw reports, we can more accurately recognize and assess terrorist activity and provide warning to prevent attacks (and unnecessary wars) and save lives.

People who know my daughter and I know that in many ways we are ideologically oppossed, but running good intelligence is one example of a place where we can, and the people of our country must come together to build agreement on common ground.