Generations : The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069

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Summary: The Generational Model as a Guide to Stock Market Investing
Review: "Generations," by William Strauss and Neil Howe was the most important book I read in the whole decade of the 1990s. It was so seminal that I devoted a whole chapter (number 20) of my new book, "A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing" (Wiley) to discussing the implications of the different generations on the stock market. Strauss and Howe show how the "bad blood" during the mid-life "hand-off" between the post- Civil War "Missionary" generation and the "Lost" generation coincided with the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression. A similar constellation between the post World War II Baby Boom generation and Generation X leads me to believe that a similar result is unfolding today. Apart from that, Strauss and Howe showed over ten years ago how the "crisis" era that is only beginning was not only possible, but almost inevitable.

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Summary: Buy Two Copies!
Review: A friend of mine lent me this book a few weeks ago. Skeptical about any book purporting to predict the future, I immediately read their predictions section - after all, the book was published ten years ago. To my surprise, I found that their predictions for 1992-2002 were largely correct! So I started again, at the beginning. The book is a work of genius.

The central tenet of this book is that generations don't age the same way, and when looking at generations through history, the correct way to look at them is by cohort - that is, by groups with similar birth years - rather than by age. In other words, if you're born in 1950 and grow up in the '60s and '70s, you'll be different at age 50 than you will if you're born in 1970 and grow up in the '80s and '90s. Strauss and Howe then trace a number of generational cohorts through American History, and find evidence of a cycle of generational types - usually a four part cycle, but in one case a three part cycle. For example, they liken Gen X (whom they call "13ers"), born in 1961-1980, to the "Lost" generation born in the late 1800s.

As a trailing edge boomer, born in 1960, I was not surprised to find that the authors, both boomers, correctly identify the defining characteristics of my generation - characteristics that I happen to dislike, as I'm in the minority that don't fit the mold that well, but that I have to acknowledge as accurate for the majority. On the other hand, the description of the Silent generation, to which my parents belong, was an eye opener - it explained well why my fathers views of what different stages in a man's life are like seemed so alien to me. The description of Gen X was likewise enlightening, both in terms of explaining some of my previous business interactions with Gen Xers (they always seem so surprised when someone actually gives them a break - turns out it's because they hardly ever get breaks) and helped me understand and interact much better with one particular Gen X who is very important to me - my wife. The description of the Millenials seems to be accurate so far for undergraduates I work with.

Two caveats when reading this book - first, remember it's American history, and the conclusions don't apply to those born overseas; second, the authors seem to emphasize the optimistic view of the future, for example focusing on the possibility that the current cycle will be a triumphant four part cycle, rather than an agonizing three part cycle as the Civil War cycle was.

At any rate, I'm now buying my own copy. I just wish I could find a hardcover, but hopefully it will still be in print when the paperback I'm buying wears out from repeated reference in a few years.

Rating:
Summary: Buy Two Copies!
Review: A friend of mine lent me this book a few weeks ago. Skeptical about any book purporting to predict the future, I immediately read their predictions section - after all, the book was published ten years ago. To my surprise, I found that their predictions for 1992-2002 were largely correct! So I started again, at the beginning. The book is a work of genius.

The central tenet of this book is that generations don't age the same way, and when looking at generations through history, the correct way to look at them is by cohort - that is, by groups with similar birth years - rather than by age. In other words, if you're born in 1950 and grow up in the '60s and '70s, you'll be different at age 50 than you will if you're born in 1970 and grow up in the '80s and '90s. Strauss and Howe then trace a number of generational cohorts through American History, and find evidence of a cycle of generational types - usually a four part cycle, but in one case a three part cycle. For example, they liken Gen X (whom they call "13ers"), born in 1961-1980, to the "Lost" generation born in the late 1800s.

As a trailing edge boomer, born in 1960, I was not surprised to find that the authors, both boomers, correctly identify the defining characteristics of my generation - characteristics that I happen to dislike, as I'm in the minority that don't fit the mold that well, but that I have to acknowledge as accurate for the majority. On the other hand, the description of the Silent generation, to which my parents belong, was an eye opener - it explained well why my fathers views of what different stages in a man's life are like seemed so alien to me. The description of Gen X was likewise enlightening, both in terms of explaining some of my previous business interactions with Gen Xers (they always seem so surprised when someone actually gives them a break - turns out it's because they hardly ever get breaks) and helped me understand and interact much better with one particular Gen X who is very important to me - my wife. The description of the Millenials seems to be accurate so far for undergraduates I work with.

Two caveats when reading this book - first, remember it's American history, and the conclusions don't apply to those born overseas; second, the authors seem to emphasize the optimistic view of the future, for example focusing on the possibility that the current cycle will be a triumphant four part cycle, rather than an agonizing three part cycle as the Civil War cycle was.

At any rate, I'm now buying my own copy. I just wish I could find a hardcover, but hopefully it will still be in print when the paperback I'm buying wears out from repeated reference in a few years.

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Summary: Heroes, but Fools
Review: Authors Neil Howe and William Strauss explore the history of American generation more in depth than in their other book The Fourth Turning. Generations is most valuable for giving the reader insight into the mind set and behavior of different generations and how they react to one another. It gives you a greater understanding of people, generations, and how they affect history. Strauss and Howe take a diplomatic approach in their evaluation of different generations stating that they have their strengths and weaknesses and hence I came up with the above title for the review to describe the book.

A basic explanation of their theory is that history moves by seasons from spring to winter. In spring, there is a civilizational high of good behavior, peace, and prosperity but also stultifying conformity and spiritual deadness. In summer, there is a consciousness revolution, in which the younger generation rebels against their elders and their institutions. In fall, there is an unraveling in which people turn inwards and focus on their private satisfactions and let public institutions and the community values fall into neglect. In winter, there is a crisis of usually war or economic depression that forces everyone to become more communal and morally strict again.

The generations are of 4 types. A prophet generation is born in a civilization high of springtime. They are inwardly focused on spiritual values. They rebel in youth, but become morally authoritarian in old age during a crisis. A nomad generation is born in a summer of consciousness revolution and aren't raised very well since their elder parents are more focused on themselves than their children. This generation is considered a lost or bad generation in which crime and immorality increase with its rising. A hero generation is born in the fall of an unraveling; they become the heroes during a crisis when they are young adults. An artist generation is born during a crisis; they are a meek and mild generation who are sensitive to other's needs and are indecisive as leaders.

When reading the book I couldn't help noting that a prophet generation often generates an unneeded crisis to solve. President George W. Bush is of a prophet generation and I kept thinking of him as a prime example of that, making Saddam Hussein to be bigger threat than he really is. I also made judgements against the artist's generations emphasis of plurality and diversity and the expense of cultural cohesion. I made judgements against the hero generation for hogging most of the public spending on themselves, letting young people fend for themselves. I made judgements against my own nomad generations for their excessive love of tasteless entertainment and general down in the dumps depression and negativity.

It was also interesting to note that during civilizational crisis and high, society is generally anti-female and pro-male in its outlook. In a consciousness revolution and an unraveling, it is general pro-female and anti-male. Depending on the times, people will general espouse philosophies that celebrate or denigrate either sex.

The current generations now living in large numbers are the G.I. elders who are heroes passing on, the Artistic Silent generation who are in elderhood, the Prophetic Baby Boomers who are entering elderhood, The Nomadic Gen Xer's who are beginning to enter middle-age, and Heroic Millennials who are beginning to move into rising adulthood. A new artistic/compromiser generation will eventually replace Millennials in the youth category.

A heroic generation usually values conformity over individualism and they tend to be rationalistic and secular. They build public institutions and generally are young adults during a prosperous, optimistic age. An Artist generation is known for its high educational level and professional expertise. A Prophet genereration is known for its focus on inward idealistic spiritual values and its weakening educational levels. A Nomad generation is known as pragmatic, cynical, unbelieving, pessimistic and poorly educated generation who are middle-aged technical managers of a crisis era. They are wild as kids and young adults, but cautious and reactionary as older people. Each generation rebels against the values of the others, which has a tendency to balance out any excesses given to any one value.

The authors give famous examples of different generational types, some of which fit the type while others don't. The ones that don't are interesting to note: Norman Rockwell, that creator of wholesome Americana art was from the bad Lost generation. He seems more like Hero generational type. Andrew Jackson, that Southern hell-raiser who chased a rival with a knife in the days of his youth was of the supposedly meek and mild Artist/Compromiser generation. He seems more like a Bad/ Nomadic generational type.

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Summary: Useful for political/consumer predictions?
Review: Despite the generally rave reviews of "Generations...", I must admit that I was skeptical. I have found during several years of interdiscplinary historical research that certain basic events such as the invention of iron by primitive man or the steam engine or computers led to fundamental change in peoples' habits of thought and behavior as they struggle to adapt to the cascading effects of these inventions. Strauss and Howe, on the other hand, tell us that four individual types of generations continually rotate through 90-odd year generational mindsets that are entirely independent of more basic historical events. They claim that understanding this pattern of generational repitition will allow us to predict the future (hence the subtitle, "the history of America's future, 1584 to 2069"). If true, the possibilities for forcasting trends in consumer preferences and political trends would be staggering. I had to give this book a chance despite its implausibility. After a careful reading I remain unconvinced. First, whatever they may in fact be able to predict is so vague and general as to be practically worthless. In constructing their types, they specifically "strip away the cumulative shape of civilization that [each type] inherits from the past"; this effectively excludes just about anything we would want to know - like "affluence, technology, basic social mores and cultural norms, and established political institutions". Yet even at this level of generality, they confess their predictions will often not hold up ("...surely bring many surprises"). Second, the regularities they do find in the past are easily attributable to such factors as the boom/bust business cycle, wars, and technological inovations. For example, of the "Transcendental" generation (b. 1792-1821), they tell us that as adults they "felt nostalgia for their childhood". But this should come as no surprise since the prosperity they experienced as children was replaced in their adulthood by an economic bust period accompanied by the nation's first intense labor conflicts. While the authors seem to argue that the bust itself was caused by the mood of that generation, I know of no serious student of society that would find this argument convincing. As a businessman or politician I would be very leary of using "Generations..." to predict anything useful. Other far less pretentious methods already exist that yield far more useful detail and accuracy. Example: Faith Popcorn's prediction that the "cacooning" would grow in popularity. Based on a fine tuned reading of the media of the early 90's and an implicit understanding of the demands of the new workplace, Cacooning became part of a dominant lifestyle. Hard, detailed, and intelligent work - not an overly general and unsubstantiated theory - produced a useful prediction. The Vals approach similarly produced useful results. Both reached five to ten years into the future, a reasonablely useful timespan. (Note: for the full version of this review, contact me at [e-mail] and/or [e-mail])

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Summary: Excellent
Review: Generations is brilliant for the most part because evidence of it is littered all over America's pop culture. From song lyrics to dress styles, this book hits the nail on the head. The only reason I took off a star is because he hammers the point home too hard and he tries to stretch it. Yes, it may seem implausible at first, but it will convince you. It explains so many things. For one, it explains why the average fighting man of the civil war is never considered as heroic as a revolutionary fighter or a WWII soldier. Generations also explains completely the cynical and depressed nature of Generation X or the 13er Generation as Strauss and Howe call it.

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Summary: Fascinating, but take it with a grain of salt
Review: I found Strauss and Howe's hypothesis of a four-stroke generational cycle fascinating, and it does have a lot to say about groups behavior, especially how society treats its members of different ages at different points in time. It also suggests points of departure for other historical studies, like why bebop, modern science fiction, and slapstick Hollywood cartoons developed at about the same time. (A personal note; many of my favorite classical composers were born between 1860 and 1885, which nearly coincides with Strauss and Howe's "Missionary" generation.) Finally, the book has a lot to suggest about the nature of historical interpretation--how similar events occuring at different times might inspire very different reactions. The idea becomes problematic when the writers extrapolate from the behavior of groups to the behavior of individuals. First of all, some of their examples don't fit with the generations they cite. (Grace Slick, for example, was actually born in 1941, putting her in the "Silent" generation instead of the "Baby Boom".) Secondly, the profiles Strauss and Howe construct for "typical" members of particular generations are so general, it's easy to find some things descriptive of oneself and the people one knows. Because human beings tend to want to impose patterns on behavior where none may exist, these generational profiles don't necessarily have any more validity than, say, horoscopes. Another problem is that the hypothesis is only extended to the USA. While the appendix has some speculations on how the four-stroke cycle might work elsewhere, the writers don't provide the support for it that they do for this country. This leads one to wonder if the cycle applies outside the USA at all. Then too, in a time when nations interact more than ever, how societies whose generational cycles are out of sync affect one another? Again, there are some good ideas in this book, but readers should approach it with some skepticism.

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Summary: Should be required reading for all college students
Review: I only recently read this book. It has been on my list of books to read for years, and I now deeply regret that it took me so long to get around to it. I have been a history buff all of my life. I started out as a history major in college, but then switched to sociology because all of the criminology courses were in that dept. and I had decided to go into that field. This book is a double delight to those who like sociology as well as history. Senator Albert Gore was correct when he said that anyone who reads this book will never look at history the same way again.

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Summary: Winner - Best American History book
Review: I read this hardcover book when it was first published a decade ago. It is kept in my library in the "most important books" section, on the "most treasured" bookshelf. Along with many of my books, I keep related magazine and newspaper articles. GENERATIONS is packed with clippings, both inserted in the book and in manila file folders next to the book. For nearly 10 years now, I've been adding clippings, making notes, or referencing this book on a monthly basis. Back in 1994, I knew this book was the perfect candidate for encoding on a CD-ROM (in HTML) with "hyperlinks" in nearly every sentence. That was when CD-ROM's, HTML, and Hyperlinks were relatively "new" technology.

Quite simply put, this is the best American History book I've every owned. It ties everything togther magnificently.

Buy it. Hardcover or Softcover. If the CD-ROM version I envisioned comes along, buy that too. You can use the paper version in conjunction with the CD-ROM version.

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Summary: An excellent resource AND a good read!
Review: I used this book as a resource for my master's thesis three or four years ago. Not only is it packed with great information and a really interesting premise that there are four basic generational cycles that repeat themselves, it's a good read. It's well-written and interestingly presented. One you can even take to the gym and read on the Lifecycle; work your brain and your body at the same time. Very enlightening, too, and will help you understand where your elders were/are coming from. Needs a rewrite at the end to include more on the Millennials. Second edition guys?