blue wave millennium

Rating:
Summary: Technology in the Tropics
Review: Hawaii ought to be as vital a center of high technology (albeit smaller in scale) as Silicon Valley or the Miracle Mile in Boston, or Fairfax, VIrginia or even Bangalore India. Hawaii has a climate that is wonderful, natural beauty all around, a time zone break that lets you talk in real time to New York and Tokyo in the same business day and (big secret here) is one of the most wired states in the country. You can surf in the morning, be at your computer by 10 a.m., work, catch an afternoon of golf or sunset tennis, work some more. On the Big Island of Hawaii you can do all that and add skiing. Lifestyle is perfect, housing prices are lower that Silicon Valley and forget the smog and traffic congestion. It has not happened (with a few exceptoins, like the astronomy center atop Mauna Kea or the Super Computer on Maui, etc.) but why? Tony Clapes explains why -- in a word, most people still stuck in the Old Economy of tourism and even plantation agriculture. And he tells us what needs to be done about it. Nothing short or a grass roots crusade, he says. There is lots to argue about here and Blue Wave Millennium is a great way to get the discussion started.

Rating:
Summary: Blue Wave Millennium: NOT A Future for Hawaii
Review: This book affirms that Hawaii's economy is in trouble and that changes are required. The author proposes that high-tech is the best, if not only, means to develop a sustainable economy in Hawaii.

The need identified is a fundamental truth to be embraced: Hawaii must be able to function in the New Economy.

A central premise of the book is sound: that, in the new millennium, knowledge and communications are the primary engines of growth.

The author's Blue Wave Millennium strategy (BWM)is that Hawaii be "a center for specific types of R&D and technology related business." While this concept has appeal and prospect, the book does not credibly present BWM as a plan for sustainable economic development.

The "traditional vision" is defined as reliant on a tourism industry that has stalled and is self-limiting. The author provides a clear synopsis of Hawaii's excessive reliance on a non-sustainable visitor industry and asserts, "Tourism won't be, can't be, and shouldn't be the main source of our economy's growth."

It is stated that agriculture "will never again have the strength that sugar once had" - mistakenly equating the fate of Hawaii agriculture with the fate of sugar. Sugar has lost, forever, its position as king of the island economy, but Hawaii agriculture is in resurgence. In 1980's and 1990's, the sugar industry declined due to reasons the author articulates well. During this same period the value of diversified agriculture increased by 200%.

The author faintly acknowledges the merit of agriculture contributing to Hawaii's economy via import substitution. The actuality of this taking place and the potential of a larger contribution is disregarded. Such disregard is unfortunate in the context of a discussion of high-tech, since agriculture in the new millennium is utilizing high-tech and will continue to do so at an increasing rate.

As the author points out, coffee, macadamia nuts, and exotic tropical fruits are all grown elsewhere, so that Hawaii is one of many competitors. This is also true for computer technology - it is produced elsewhere and any new entrants into this market will be one of many competitors.

In critiquing components of the Hawaii economy, the military sector is not mentioned. An informed analysis of Hawaii's economy, as it exists today and in the near- to mid-future, requires including the impact of the military.

The high-tech successes of Ireland and Bangalore, India in the 1990's are given as examples for Hawaii to follow.

Contrary to what is implied, Ireland being an island does not make it analogous to Hawaii. That Ireland is further from the US than Hawaii fails to prove that Hawaii's remote location is not an impediment to establishment of a high-tech economy in the islands. Ireland is close to, part of, and has special market access to, the European Union, a large market.

Bangalore does not, as the author claims, prove "that the Blue Wave Millennium is achievable." The author praises policies that made Bangalore a high-tech economic success, particularly the Indian government's approach to getting high-tech parks built. Would industry development policy from Bangalore be suitable in Hawaii? A notorious case of industry development in India was the location of the worst chemical disaster in history: the 1984 gas leak at a chemical plant in Bhopal, India. Does Hawaii want to use as a role model, industry development policies that resulted in such a catastrophe?

There is a fundamental economic reason that emulating Ireland's and Bangalore's leadership in the high-tech boom of the 1990's is unlikely to replicate their successes in Hawaii. An entrepreneur, company, or community contemplating investment must recognize that early innovators capture high returns and followers compete to sustain lower returns. Being a follower will not result in Hawaii having sustainable prosperity in the twenty-first century.

BWM would have Hawaii become "a place where high-tech gets done." Perhaps, instead, Hawaii should be a place where high-tech gets used. High-tech (computer technology), properly utilized, reduces the cost of activities. This cost reduction comes from two sources: gains in efficiency realized by those who use high-tech, and, in the year 2002 and beyond, a declining price for computer technology. It is preferable to pay a low price for and then use cost-saving technology, instead of investing in an industry that produces low priced technology.

The steps to BWM include improved quality of education; private sector alliances; partnership between government, industry and academia; competitive government; financial incentives; tax reform; support from large corporations, entrepreneurs, and the public; and venture capital. All of these steps represent good ideas. None are new ideas and none are unique to high-tech.

The BWM selling point is that "Hawaii has unique advantages in lifestyle, telecommunications facilities, existing expertise, and time zone." These advantages, properly exploited, can make Hawaii more attractive for business investment. However, they are not so unique as the author implies.

The author alludes to biotech, but emphasizes computer technology. More elaboration on what biotech has to offer Hawaii would have been good.

It is imperative that knowledge become the engine for Hawaii's economy. The challenge for Hawaii is not to duplicate a model that has been successful for another place, at another time, with another set of circumstances. The challenge for Hawaii is to create and use knowledge, including high-tech and biotech, as an economic engine to do what no one else has done. This would be the way for Hawaii to create a sustainable social and economic future in which the health of the natural environment is constantly improved.