Rating: 
Summary: Not how but then
Review: What is important and valuable about this book is not its own well-researched and informed story of AI and its positive hopes for a bright AI future. But the new perspective on being human and on machines that you will have after you read it. Every good book ought to remain in you, to change you deeply. This one may well do so.
Rating: 
Summary: The New Gnosticism?
Review: The hard part about rating this book is that Kurtzweil is on the one hand somewhat convincing while also being overly hopeful about the human condition. Kurtzweil makes the prediction that by 2019, computers will exceed human memory capacity and mental cognition. From there, he predicts that computers will essentially become better than human to the extent that we will have to become part of a world of cybernetic ubiquity. Part of this, like many futurist claims, is going through the arguments of extrapolation based on past and current data. Even Kurtzweil, however, admits that Moore's Law must end at one point and be taken over by some other form of technology. We are reaching physical constraints of being able to fit only so many transistors on a chip. You know that joke where the scientist is doing an equation on the board and then puts "then a miracle happens" to get to the next step? Kutzweil does a bit of that here by outlining several possible-but-not-yet-viable technologies that are out there (quantum computers, DNA computers, etc.) and too often invokes the Law of Accelerating Returns as proof it must happen. The fact remains that in order for his dates to be met, certain things have yet to be invented. Nonetheless, he may not be wrong, and history DOES show a geometric increase in the abilities of machines. His next jump is to state that eventually we will be able to download ourselves into a computer, into a virtual world. We achieve whatever reality we want, we achieve immortality because we have escaped the shackles of the prison of our human bodies. For those who know theological history, this is startlingly reminiscent of Gnosticism, without the religious overtones (though one could argue there is a good dose of scientific religion here). All we are are disembodied pieces of software, just like "spirit", which must be free of the physical. Finally, Kurtzweil is clearly what some call a "forward stampeder". Yes, there are things that technology has done wrong, so we just need MORE of it to fix it! In his sobering analysis of the Unabomber's Manifesto, Kurtsweil reaches a point of honesty by admitting that we are not guaranteed a rosy future. His response however is "we have the opportunity to shape technology, and to channel its direction" (p. 186) Indeed, for only the next 18 years we do. Then, if he is right, we will not have any control. If Kurtzweil is right, the world could just as easily be like movies we see like Terminator, where we fight a losing war with the machines. Or the dark future of The Matrix. For me, I hope he is wrong, but am afraid he is not far off.
Rating: 
Summary: The future will be swamped by intelligence
Review: The argument here starts with the observation that intelligent machines are already a reality. In the future we will be able to create ever more intelligent machines. A truly explosive increase in machine intelligence is described, up to unimaginable levels only 100 years from now. As far as hardware is concerned, the author insists that Moore's law, according to which computing power at a given cost doubles every 18 months, will continue unabated. Current computer technology will hit fundamental physical constrains in about 10 years, but the author insists that intelligence will find a way to grow explosively without slowing down because of mere physics. He describes several potential avenues through which computer power can increase. The most intriguing one is the possibility of building quantum computers. According to theory these can have immense computing power, because quantum phenomena allow for a huge number of calculations to be done in parallel. Nature does never give something for nothing, and, for my taste, quantum computers come too close to the edge - but who knows? More interesting is the question of software. When I was a student I was taught that hardware power is not very significant for defining the reach of computers, because algorithmic complexity almost always grows exponentially when related to the size of the problem to be solved. So fundamental advances will come from better algorithms, not from increased hardware power. The current state of affairs seems to agree with this view. After all, word processing 20 years ago using an Apple II is not fundamentally different from word processing today using computers a thousand times more powerful. Algorithmic design is a very costly process that few humans can do well, and this fact, it seems, would necessarily frustrate the rapid increase in machine intelligence. The author produces two solutions: One, to dissect a human brain and copy its "algorithm". To me this sounds rather similar to Da Vinci's idea of dissecting birds in order to build a flying machine. The second solution refers to methods where the algorithm builds itself, i.e. learns how to work. Two methodologies are mentioned here, genetic algorithms and neural nets. Many examples are given about the successful use of these to solve surprisingly difficult problems. These are powerful ideas. Certainly if we come to a point where an intelligent machine can design and maybe build an even more intelligent machine, then indeed we have the ingredients for a runaway explosion of intelligence. The author paints a rather scary near future. First we use machines to broaden our own minds, but we also build independent machines that become more and more powerful. The war between conscious machines and humans never happens, because it is won by the machines before it even starts: Human minds migrate into machines and lead a fruitful life within the more expansive means that this new medium offers. A few biological humans remain at a much lower level of intelligence, and presumably wilt away without remorse or bitterness. The next level of evolution is achieved by beings that are unimaginably more intelligent than we are now. At this stage it is not meaningful to talk about machines, they are just our offspring living in bodies that are not DNA based. In fact these immortal beings include persons originally born as humans, including, it is stated, Microsoft's Bill Gates. Again, all of this will happen in the next 100 years. Now, what is wrong in this picture, apart from the idea of having Bill Gates around for all eternity? For starters, for this vision to work the whole world should be like California, which it is not. On most places of this planet misery rather than intelligence rules. The book was written before the techno-bubble burst, an event not predicted in the book, and also before the recent power failures in California itself. The earth is in such bad working order that one must wonder if ever intelligence will take hold. Also, if the explosion of intelligence is a necessary natural phenomenon, something like an unstoppable supernova, then by now the universe should be full of manifestations of intelligence, it should be infused, drenched, saturated by intelligence. Why, entire suns would be cloaked in order to harvest their energy needed for the huge amount of computations going on. (Maybe this explains the mystery of the dark matter, i.e. the fact that most matter in the universe is not visible.) Also, why hasn't this cosmic intelligent fabric reached us? Well, maybe they wanted to leave part of the universe in its natural state, you know like we keep protected nature parks. Our corner of the universe may be just such a place. We do not listen to the noise created by intelligence elsewhere, but maybe this only shows our low level of development. Now, if we assume that the universe is not really intelligent, this leaves us with three possibilities: First, for some reason there may exist intrinsic limits to the growth of intelligence. This does not seem probable, particularly after reading this book. Second, depressingly, the explosive growth of intelligence may always bring about its demise, the same way that the uncontrolled growth of cancer kills the organism that creates it. This sounds rather plausible if we observe the way humanity manages the world today. The third possibility is that the growth of intelligence reaches a level where it decides to stop, where it understands that the "law of accelerating returns" is not conducive to happiness. So maybe the universe is filled not only by intelligent, but also by wise races, that look after their own small garden without disturbing the rest of creation, and live meaningful, biological, limited lives. All in all, this is an extremely interesting book to read. I withhold one star, only because I find that the catchy title has little relevance to its content.
Rating:
Summary: Mind Opening
Review: This book was an extremely interesting read. It gave me a much broader perspective when thinking about life and the amazing possibilities of the future. Being one who works in the tech field, it has been interesting to already witness some of the changes discussed in the book gradually occuring right on schedule; ie wireless internet and devices, voice recognition and translation software, various medical developments, the shrinking of computers, etc etc. I would recommend this book not only to techies, but to everyone, it really altered the way I think about life and the possibilities of higher artificial intelligence.
Rating:
Summary: Brilliant
Review: Kurzweil has been getting a lot of press lately and rightfully so. This man is on the edge of modern thinking. I has a good understanding of where computer technology is at and how it will advance. If your really interested in where technology is going and want to see what the future has in store you must get this. It's written in a way where you don't have to read it straight through either, so you can skip various sections on historical fact and read what's coming up. Great stuff!
Rating:
Summary: More interconnections than atoms in the known universe?
Review: First, the book is a great read. Kurzweil's style is informal enough to be enjoyable but technical enough for the scientifically inclined to see the plausibility of some of his predictions. His high-level descriptions of the problems facing AI and the subsequent analysis of technology's solutions convincingly shows that, given an increasingly short amount of time, we can do anything. I would also like to address a statement made in the very prominent first review for this book: "This means that the total number of connections in a human brain is greater than the number of atoms in the known universe." Doesn't this also mean that if every one of these synaptic connections consists of at least one atom (I would guess they consist of quite a few more) then every human brain would have more atoms than are available in the known universe? I could be off here, but that doesn't sound right.
Rating: 
Summary: Highly disappointing...
Review: I don't understand why this book has generated so much hype (and that many stars on Amazon...). Poorly written, philosophically hollow, scientifically light, it failed to captivate me despite a very interesting subject. I find it also very superficial (maybe Kurzweil had to hurry to meet his century deadline). I want my money back...
Rating:
Summary: Fascinating Predictions, but not technical enough
Review: A prediction of the future with a strong scientific basis to back it up. This is what sets it apart from most other predictions. To reiterate what others have said about what this book contains, it describes Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence and how these may change the world in the future. It describes how by 2019, computers will have the memory capacity and computational ability of the brain. This will be coupled with computers replacing most of what humans do. Then, by 2029 nanotech will replace humans in production and agriculture. Machines are easily passing the Turing test. Then, by 2099 enough of the brain will be known to create fully conscious machines. We could then merge our brains with them, and live in a virtual body and/or a cybernetic body, effectively achieving near immortality. As well as this, Kurzweil describes the technologies that will advance and allow us to achieve this. This is where he is weakest, because he does not go into enough depth. His final chapter, "How to build an Intelligent Machine" has some very clever ideas on combbining neural networks with genetic algorithms but does not explain it in enough detail. Overall, the layman will find it fascinating, but the more technical reader will have wanted something more scientific.
Rating:
Summary: The most inspirational guide to the future awaiting
Review: Ray Kurzweil's book is an intriguing, easy to read, inspirational book on the upcoming revolution of machine intelligence. All the predictions he makes, all his ideas, all his speculations and hopes are based on scientific fact. They are not exageration or science-fiction, he is an amazing scientist who has already changed the world and will continue to do so. IGNORE ALL THE BAD REVIEWS, READ THIS BOOK TO UNDERSTAND THE BEAUTIFUL WORLD YOU WILL BE LIVING IN, LOOK AT YOUR FUTURE AND REALIZE THAT IT IS AMAZING. YOU WILL NOT BE DISSAPOINTED, RAY KURZWEIL IS AN EXCELLENT WRITER! Get this book, it is not ramblings, it is not fiction, it is our future. Take a look: www.kurzweiltech.com
Rating:
Summary: Unfounded fictional ramblings
Review: If you read this as speculation that purports to be based in reality, then it is a good read, much as The Blair Witch Project is a good movie. But this book smacks far too much of goofy 1930s predictions about two-legged vaccuming robots and lunar outposts. We're apparently unable to create a word processor that doesn't crash, and yet we are going to create superhuman machine intelligence in the near future? Anyone who has followed the history of AI knows that we haven't made much--or any--progress in that area, aside from a few novelties based on brute force, millions of dollars, and thirty years of research, like highly paralell search engines that compute chess moves in a thoughtless manner. Some of Kurweil's visions are downright dumb, such as AI artists that will create art in lieu of humans. Now that's an interesting gimmick, much as chatter bots--programs that converse in chat rooms--are, but nobody really wants such things.
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