Rating: 
Summary: Much to think about
Review: Please correct the review I've already written: instead of "Combine all this and the next millenium may see us ...", it should say "Combine all this and the next century may see us ..."
Rating: 
Summary: My highest recommendation
Review: Of all the books written in recent years concerning the soon-to-be-felt effects of rapidly advancing technology, Ray Kurzweil's is the best. He combines a confident grasp of technical and scientific complexities with the unusual ability to express far-reaching ideas in a way that is not only understandable but compelling. Kurzweil is a noted inventor, a wealthy entrepreneur, a genius, and a fine author. It's too bad he hasn't published more books (this is only his third), but apparently he has his hands full running high-tech companies, participating in think tanks, and contributing to his fabulous online chronicle of technological advancement. The Age of Spiritual Machines serves as a sweeping review of the historical development of intelligence and computation, as a grand introduction to the fields of nanotechnology, virtual reality, and artificial intelligence, and as a mind-blowing summary of where we are headed in the next thirty years. Kurzweil's scientific credentials are impeccable and lend credence to his often startling extrapolations. For the non-technical reader, the book is very engaging and highly readable. For the more serious student, it includes a comprehensive series of notes and an exhaustive bibliography. On all counts, I give it my highest recommendation.
Rating:
Summary: Inventing the future
Review: While Kurzweil makes it clear that he believes it is "inevitable" that machine intelligence will exceed human intelligence--see especially page 253--he adds some clarifying "Failure Modes" on page 256. The most significant one is the possibility that "the entire evolutionary process" will be destroyed (think: a supernova in the neighborhood); but there is also the possibility that humans "together with...[our] technology may destroy" ourselves before we get there (think: replicating Osama Bin Ladens, perhaps as nanobots). But more interesting than the general theme are the implications. Kurzweil writes, "Improving our lives through neural implants on the mental level, and nanotechnology-enhanced bodies on the physical level, will be popular and compelling." (This is sometime after machines have gotten a lot smarter than we are and can help us with these tasks.) Kurzweil adds, "It is another one of those slippery slopes--there is no obvious place to stop this progression until the human race has largely replaced the brains and bodies that evolution first provided." (pp. 140-141) What Kurzweil is getting at might be expressed with these words, "Au revoir, carbon-based, humanoid bipeds!" In effect, he is saying that we will go the way of the dodo. It has long been a staple of science fiction that humans will be replaced by artificial intelligence, what Kurzweil calls "spiritual machines." We are toast, it's just a matter of when. What we didn't know was how and how soon. Kurzweil has the answer. We will replace ourselves with the artifacts of our technology, and we'll do it sooner rather than later. He believes there will no longer be "any clear distinction between humans and computers" by the year 2099. At the same time "Most conscious entities" will "not have a permanent physical presence." (p. 280) We will have become "software." Incidentally there will be no pain or sense of death along the way. It will happen as gradually and as imperceptibly (to us) as grass growing. To paraphrase T. S. Eliot: This is the way our world ends. Not with a bang, not even with a whimper. One of the striking things about Kurzweil's perception is that our children may live to see such a day, our grandchildren almost for sure. The implications of this spiritual transformation (to conjure up some perhaps apt New Age terminology) are beyond mind-boggling, they are mind-deleting! Yes, get ready to have your mind deleted. But it will be no big deal. This will happen some time after it is downloaded into a secure and long-lived spiritual machine. You won't care. The old biological you will transpire and the new happy you will live a long, long time. Or, another scenario is that you will be replaced so gradually that at no time will you realize that you are being replaced. The incremental changes will all seem positive and life-enhancing. As Kurzweil reminds us, the atoms in our bodies are replaced again and again as we pass through the events of our lives and at no time do we have any sense of dying. It may seem a bit astonishing but I think Kurzweil is on to something here. And I'm not the only one. Futurists around the world are very excited about the prospects that Kurzweil discusses in this book. For example, futurist John Smart believes that the rapidly accelerating pace of technological change is so explosive that as early as the year 2040 our technology will be so far in advance of today's that it will constitute from our viewpoint a "singularity." We cannot see across the event horizon from this side, but even if we could, we would not be able to comprehend what we saw. In effect, the future is invisible but can be discerned by the implications of our present technology and by an appreciation of what Kurzweil calls the "Law of Accelerating Returns." I've always been one for fantastic ideas. I love the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum mechanics mainly because of the wondrous way it frees the mind. To imagine that a new universe is created with every quantum event is about as fantastic as it gets. The implication of such a mind expansion is that the reality of existence is vastly greater than anything we can imagine, and--guess what?--it is. For this reason alone I consider this a wonderful book, and I will not quibble about Kurzweil's many predictions, nor will I point out that the "Law of Accelerating Returns," which he derives from his more fundamental "Law of Time and Chaos" are laws in the same sense that Moore's Law is a law; that is, not in a scientific sense but in an observational and logical sense. They are predictions made from limited observations, and like all such predictions are subject to conditions and influences we know nothing about. What is absolutely fascinating about the ideas presented in this book is the way they make us think about what it means to be alive and have consciousness. The Eastern idea that we don't die and that our ego is an illusion fits very comfortably into a scenario that includes the gradual transformation of ourselves from carbon-based beings to software, or put another way, our gradual transformation to pure information. For a rationalist, being pure information may be what is meant by being spiritual. In short, what Kurzweil is postulating is nothing less than the end of life as we know it. For those who imagine that we are the immutable handiwork of a supernatural being, this is a heresy. For others who see humans as part of a larger process on the way to becoming, this book is something akin to an important sutra.
Rating:
Summary: Much to think about
Review: Kurzweil asks "What will the world be like when computers are more intelligent than humans?" His answers to this question are interesting, but the truly thought provoking material are the questions. Kurzweil makes a convincing argument that machine intelligence will, quite soon, surpass ours. Consider: -
* While computers are much faster than humans at easily definable tasks such as adding up a column of figures, they are woeful at tasks that a child finds easy - such as distinguishing a dog from a cat. But with neural nets and learning software, if we had enough computer power there seems nothing that a human intelligence can do that a computer couldn't do.
* Moore's Law has been driving down the price/performance of computers so that they double in power about every 18 months. Most commentators think that Moore's law will continue to about 2020, when transistors will be so small that quantum effects will prevent their working. However Kurzweil argues that Moore's Law applied to silicon planes is just the current phase of an exponential curve from 1900, and that new technologies (several promising ones are discussed) will continue the trend well past 2020. By 2020 a $1000 computer could be capable of human-like levels of parallel processing and reasoning.
* In the 1950's we had our first glimmerings of the structure of DNA, and dreamed of being able to read the genetic code. Today we can sequence a DNA strand - if not yet a routine process, it soon will be. Today we have a rudimentary ability to scan human brains and understand the neuron structure and the way that experience and learning is stored. Perhaps in another 50 years our ability to scan and understand brain structures will be similar to today's ability to understand DNA. Combine all this and the next millennium may see us transferring our total experience into a computer by scanning our brain. Such a computer would know everything that we do, be capable of any human intellectual process, yet also have a computer's ability to communicate and process vast amounts of data extremely rapidly. Will such a computer be conscious? It will be hard to argue that it isn't. By any definition, it will be much more intelligent that any human, or group of humans. Some thought experiments: what if we replaced a person's failing brain with such a computer, having scanned their brain first. How does this differ from things we do now, such as cochlea implants? Would this person be any less human? Would they be superhuman? Now imagine that the person's body fails, so we electronically transfer the machine intelligence to another person whose brain was destroyed but has a good body. Is this Fred (brain) or Joe (body). Or Joeline? What if there's no available body, so we (temporarily?) store Fred's mind just in a computer. In fact, do we need a body? Would pulling the plug be murder? Does it make any difference if there's a backup? Kurzweil is not Orwell, and this book is not 1984 revisited. Relatively little time is spent speculating on possible scenarios. Instead, the emphasis is on the inevitability of the trends, and the options that will become available. I found this a fascinating read, and I'll be pondering the implications for a long time.
Rating:
Summary: Open mind needed
Review: The book is truely mind provoking and stimulating, and has put information in a wide spectrum together, (including technology, biology, philosophy, sociology etc).In order to truly enjoy this book, one has to have an open mind, regarding whether computers can exceed human intelligence. I find Ray Kurweil has presented a solid argument, with good examples and reference to back it up. Kurweil's writing style is humourous with high energy, which drives the book a quick & enjoyable read.
Rating:
Summary: Thought provoking
Review: There is a lot of incredible information in Spiritual Machines. It is a little slow at times, but such is the material it covers. Perhaps its one fault is the intelligence level-it is written so intelligently that the vast majority of people will not be able to keep up. Those who can keep up probably are just seeing an extension of their previous thoughts on the matter of increasing computer intelligence. His ideas are backed with a lot of facts, this is obviously a guy who took this book very seriously. Still, this book is an incredible read, and I personally feel he is not far off on his predictions. This book is well worth reading, but it perhaps won't reach a state of brilliance until his predictions come true-and they will.
Rating: 
Summary: Too linear
Review: This is a strange book. A history of the future, as it were. Kurzweil attempts to build a case for the eventual replacement of carbon-based intelligence, products of natural evolution, with other models whose ancestors would be today's silicon chips and software. The fundamental argument is quite simple: increasing computation increases capability in all areas currently considered specifically human. Since machine generations are counted in years (2), each generation providing something like an order of magnitude plus enhancement in computational power, and even that rate of change is increasing, it is inevitable that artificial "life" will out-think the human, neuron-based, intellect. That's about the sum total of the book's content. Plus a series of predictions that you can likely safely ignore (see 2 below). There are objections one can make: 1. it is not clear, given our present science, that consciousness, awareness, intelligence (or any other term along those lines) is reducible to simple albeit massive computation. In fact, what does computation actually mean in this context? 2. the book's predictions are fairly linear - i.e. extrapolate current trends and you have the inevitable result. History, and that of technology in particular, clearly shows that this approach is not a very good predictive model. The future, despite what futurists wish to believe, is deeply, inherently non-linear in the mathematical sense. The sophistic trick, used in this book, of picking a few successful predictions from a larger set of prognostications (most of which didn't pan out), is particularly painful here. Even if his past predictions were always dead on, in what way would that assure that this new set will be correct? 3. A subset of item 2, there seems to be no place for unintended and harmful effects of the trends discussed (this of course is the essential problem with forecasts). Strangely, everything in the future appears to be coming up roses. Food for everyone, longer life, better medecine and education etc. This is a lovely utopian outlook on current trends - however, again, looking backwards into scientific history, such a uniformly positive set of results from the development of new technologies has never happened. Anyone ever read Blake or Engels? Or a history of the WWI? 4. Finally, perhaps attendant to item 1: human intelligence is the result of a struggle...to survive and to prosper (here defined as encroaching upon then dominating ecological zones across the planet). Our brains have grown and developed in response to external factors (perhaps changing climates, species competition etc) - and internal ones as well (such as bipedalism). These have been our catalysts. What will drive the machine intelligence's evolution? Without a "fitness" environment, it's hard to see how even exponentially massive computational ability will amount to much.
Rating:
Summary: A manual for the fading MOSH
Review: Kurzweil has added a volume to the growing library of studies on the impact of technology on humanity's future. Like some others in the field, his technical background leads him to focus on the amazing gains made in computing in recent years. The background doesn't obscure his ability to formulate and present his forecast of where these gains will lead us in a few years. He's lucid, strongly convincing and precise in why he believes what he does. He opens by comparing the evolutionary rates of biological and computational change. From this contrast, he sees computers as achieving human mind processing levels in but a few years. Unlike most writers in this genre, Kurzweil bravely sets down a detailed time line of benchmarks indicating when we should expect each advance with its likely impact. In order to help readers comprehend his portentous scenarios, he provides reader/writer dialogs at the end of each chapter. An innovative step, these exchanges state likely questions readers are considering while reflecting on his ideas. These FAQ sessions offset some of the technical descriptions. Those of you with children should look carefully at his proposals while wondering where your offspring will fit into his scenarios. It is, after all, the reason the book's been written. The focus is the human mind. How does it process and store information? The mind uses parallel processing and is slower than the high speed serial algorithm method computers use. With even faster processing, coupled with enhanced interactivity, computers will easily match the human brain. Then what? Kurzweil sees the mind and the computer subtly merging until what is computer and what is human becomes blurred. Physical events, for example, are reflected in our memories. Experience is what the mind remembers of it and can be recalled, imitated or created at will. In Kurzweil's predictions, even at long distance. In another context, this would be considered speculative fiction. Here, it's done with sound technical assessment, carrying extra validity thereby. There's little to fault in Kurzweil's presentation of future progress in computing or even whether there's likely to be a merging of computers and minds. What is lacking here is breadth of outlook. Kurzweil would have done better to collaborate with a biologist or social thinker. The future he outlines is purely the product of the technical world. While the future scenarios he conceives are perfectly valid for those able to implement them, the number of likely affected people is drastically smaller than his book conveys. While changes in perception of art, music, poetry, even prose writing are, as he states, already taking place, they will not be universal. A large part of the planet will be bypassed in this transformation. In his future scenarios he considers what changes will occur in the prosecution of war. Who will the enemy be? In all likelihood, those who've been left out of the changes. What will the changes be in human character? His discussion of the technological Luddites is comprehensive, an often overlooked aspect of considering these changes. Yet even they are an integral part of this society, not those left outside its sphere. He suggests the human body as we know it will become superfluous. That will be true only for those willing or able to undertake the change. The rest of us, today's humans, will become Mostly Original Substrate Humans [MOSH]. This suggests a divided society, humans and merges. Is this division likely to result in new species? Kurzweil doesn't address this question, but it's one requiring serious discussion.
Rating:
Summary: Highly Recommended!
Review: Ray Kurzweil, an inventor of new technologies, discusses how today's rapid advances in computer intelligence will eventually lead to machines that are more intelligent than human beings. He suggests that these machines also will develop human sensitivities, leading to an increased blurring between machines and humans. Drawing on the latest developments in science and technology, Kurzweil presents a fairly compelling argument, though some readers may find the discussions hard to follow since he frequently cites physics, biology and other scientific disciplines. Kurzweil is trying to simplify a complex theoretical and technical subject, so we [...] forgive the occasional repetition of his main arguments, and recommend this fascinating, well-researched and well-reasoned book.
Rating:
Summary: Is it us or them or us is them!?
Review: An online Amazon.com friend, Dan McCreary, suggested this book to me when he learned I was interested in the concept of sentience in computers. I have to admit The Age of Spiritual Machines is very impressive. I'm not sure I'm totally in agreement with the author's rather euphoric prognostication with respect to the future of computer technology however, especially in view of the human capacity to screw things up royally. Perhaps if the consciousness of machines and their degree of control and intervention is able to forestall our peculiar bent for self-destruction, the world may become the place that Mr. Kurzwell foresees; but I bet it's a close race! Actually Kurzwell's belief that a machine will ultimately pass the Turing test and that when it says it's sentient we will believe it was an interesting concept, more especially still, since he believes it will probably occur before the end of the century. Personally I'd be more inclined to believe it'll end up a case of "they are us" instead. Certainly it appears that Kurzwell thinks that that kind of phenomenon will occur along with the increasing sentience of machines. Working as I do in intensive care nursing, I have already seen some remarkable achievements with respect to equipment designed to improve and lengthen life. Even the recent neural implants to help control intractable seizures and clinical depression are already being tried at our medical institution. These devices are really only a step away from the more massive changes in personal "equipment" that Kurzwell sees as the ultimate destiny of mankind. I'm not too sure, however, that I could cope with the kind of constant paradigm shift that would be involved in, among other things, downloading myself to a more "permanent" me. Already I feel the difficulty of dealing with the stress of a world that changes technologically, morally, and ethically with almost staggering speed with each passing year. What took a century to do in my grandfather's time, half a century in my father's time, and a decade in my youth, is now taking a year to occur. In the not too distant future--baring a cataclysmic event, some sort of modern day "dark age"--major changes may well occur over months or even days. I'm not certain my capacity to change along with the times will be quite up to it. I can't help but think of my own mother's unwillingness to make use of common "conveniences" like ATMs, answering machines, etc. She's dropping further and further out of the loop as she ages, because she no longer sees the changes of modern life as "helpful" but more as needless complications. Perhaps if my silicone or nanotech "me" is inherently changed in some way--able to think faster, more globally, etc.--by virtue of changes in my "software" design and an enhanced memory capacity, I might adjust. I'm sure that's what the author would say. But I'm left wondering who the "I" of me would be then, after all the changes, not just from carbon me to silicone me, but from the ethical me of here and now to a me who changes her ethics prn (as needed). Sounds a little psychotic. I also found the notion that chaos and increased complexity (such as is seen in evolution) are intertwined in a feedback loop of particular interest. So was the theory that both evolution and technology are growing exponentially. In fact the author believes the exponential growth of technology is growing exponentially. In support of this contention he provides both a graph (p. 24) and a time line (pp. 261-280). The latter makes interesting and informative reading all by itself! One of the things I definitely agree with is Kurzwell's time line for computer advances. That we will see a 1000$ machine (after accounting for inflation, of course!) computing with the power of a human brain in 20 years seems entirely likely. If you think at all about it, as I have ever since I was a kid, the first chipped rock of early man has evolved into the computer/space age in only about 100,000 years--depending upon with which of our species you start. Given the almost unstoppable momentum of these changes, I'd be inclined to say that, if anything, Kurzwell may have over estimated the length of time it'll take to achieve that goal. The Age of Spiritual Machines certainly gives one a lot to think about. It's definitely worth a read.
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