Rating: 
Summary: Incomplete Analysis
Review: I really enjoyed this book. First of all, it is an excellent introduction to Bayesian statistics, which is interesting in its own right. Second, it provides plenty of food for thought in a step by step, logical, and yes, entertaining way. You can think for yourself, right?
There are some flaws, however. He states very briefly (on pg 95) that he is assuming that the evidentiary areas are not correlated, and then he never returns to the issue. I think that this is probably pretty important, and I would have appreciated at least an appendix on this subject for the more mathematically muscular -- perhaps instead of the muddled discussion of faith and belief. It appears to me that this is important because I believe that treating correlations correctly is the mechanism by which one avoids "cooking" the analysis by introducing a number of basically equivalent pieces of evidence that differ only in how they are stated. If these equivalent evidentiary areas all point in one direction but if they are treated as if they were independent, I think that this will yield a grossly erroneous result.
That makes me want to understand just how independent the evidentiary areas he presents are, and although I have a feeling that he did a pretty good job of choosing them fairly, I don't know how to test this. I also don't know how to test whether additional evidentiary areas I might make up are fair in this sense.
Rating: 
Summary: Good God
Review: I really loved this book. It seems to be a completely revolutionary way (at least to me) of looking at belief in God. There is a math part to it, but the author is very good at explaining it. I wish he'd been my math teacher. On top of all this, the book is really very funny. He seems able to work in the humor at the same time as keeping the serious theme moving along. My guess is that this book will open up a whole new line of enquiry into God and religious beliefs.
Rating:
Summary: Fun to read, don't take the philosophy seriously
Review: I thoroughly enjoyed reading this, as the presentation of both Bayes' Theorem and a number of topics in physics & cosmology were interesting and simply stated. Although the author could be criticized for treating these topics too lightly, then I'd balance this with his witty style and numerous examples as being a good way to interest people in math & science. Chapter 11, "An Existing Question," is alone worth the price of the book.
As for the existence of God, his statements, methods of attack, and assumptions fare no better than any other not-conclusive thought put forward since Thomas Aquinas (or maybe Augustin?), e.g.:
1. Look carefully at every probablility assumption that Mr. Unwin makes. They assume that God exists even before testing to see if God exists! This seem to be the most common source of error from the Ancients to present day.
2. Even if all Mr. Unwin's numbers are correct (whatever that means), you could plug in "Little Green Man," "Merlin the Sorcerer," "Buddha's Thumb," instead of the word "God" in all of his equations. Really. The logic leading up to the conclusions would be the same, no matter what deity or fantasy you chose.
3. The mathematics part of it is flawed in that a choice of 50% for the pre-probability of God is incorrect. It's zero percent, as you have to show evidence that God existed before making that assumption -- therefore unproved, the correct plug-in is zero. That obviously makes "P-after" equal zero.
But the book is so much fun! I have to commend Mr. Unwin for the work, as he clearly enjoyed writing it. I'd call this one of those good old-fashioned hell-raisers of a book. No pun intended at all.
Rating:
Summary: A thoroughly enjoyable and stimulating read
Review: It's rare indeed when the tools of the scientific community are useful in contemplating fundamental concepts of faith in God. However, Dr. Unwin has accomplished just that by applying an established theorem of probability to grope with life's most basic question: "does God exist?" His proposed approach reaches out to those of us who feel the need to rationalize or substantiate our belief in a living and benevolent supernatural being.Amazingly, the author achieves this feat without burdening the reader with heavy theology and abstract mathematics. Nor does he reduce man's search for the Divine to trivial arithmetic. Rather, he proposes an intriguing way to view the subject. It's also a thoroughly enjoyable read because he presents his case in an informal, conversational style and with a sense of humor that balances the gravity of the subject. Perhaps the most appealing feature of the book is that it's basic ideas stay with you long after you've finished reading. For example, Dr. Unwin presents six "evidentiary areas" for estimating the probability that God truly exists; for example: the universal notion of good and evil, and life-saving events that defy physical explanation (miracles). He uses these concepts as a basis for developing a probabilistic argument that God exists; that is, the evidence suggests it's more likely he exists than he doesn't. Soon after finishing the book, I found myself playing with the numbers and applying them to my own ideas of evidence for and against the proposition that God exists. This is the stuff that stimulates great discussion around the dinner table or (God forbid) at happy hour.
Rating:
Summary: An original book on religion - what were the odds?
Review: Probability of God is a wonderful book. I am a person of faith and a scientist (chemist). As such I tend to struggle with some of the beliefs held by my fellow faithful, particularly beliefs that my education has made unavailable to me. The reason I love this book is that it provides a very eloquent and powerful basis for faith that doesn't intrude on the magnificent achievements of science. The thought process that Unwin goes through is very original - and originality is not a word I often associate with books on religious themes, which tend to be stale and repetitive. The probability numbers are fun, but that's not where I see the value of this book. The idea that uncertainty about religious ideas has a positive benefit is the most intruiging to me, i.e., faith needs uncertainty. I noticed an earlier reviewer said this book is not for the certain on either side of the debate. I agree completely. This book is a very quick read given the weight of the subject matter. I found it fun, edifying, and very uplifting.
Rating:
Summary: A Recommended Read
Review: Recently I wrote a review of the book 'The Probability of God' for a skeptical magazine. Looking over the reviews here on Amazon I was surprised to find that one or two people had used negative excepts from my review to sandbag the author and his work, awarding him only one star. This will not do. The Probability of God is an outstanding and thought provoking book, one with which you can disagree and still appreciate what it has to offer. I award the book four stars. Do I regard the authors core argument for belief in a God as flawed for the reasons you have read? Yes. I do. But in the interest of restoring balance allow me to highlight the strengths of this book. First, Dr. Unwin has presented a new and innovative way to look at belief in God. In an area where the standard arguments for theistic belief have become calcified and tedious, the author delivers a breath of fresh air through Bayesian probabilities. The mathematical framework of Bayesian probabilities also provides a badly needed field of commonality on which both sides can meet to debate the merits of the issues. The math is easy and accessible due to the effortless way the authors has with words. Second, the provocative 67% probability figure has energized the debate and provoked a lot of interest in the issues, as evidenced not just by the flurry of reviews here on Amazon, but by the guest appearance of the author on NPR, as well as by all of the human-interest news items generated in the press. Most theistic books never manage a blip on the public radar, while the authors work is seismographic in comparison. Third, the supporting material is worth the price of the book. The author challenges currently popular evidences for God, and his discussions on what it means to 'exist', on quantum behaviors, and the bigotry of 'Scaleism' are delightful! In conclusion, The Probability of God is vibrant. It sparkles with wit and thought provoking arguments. Weather you are a believer in God or not, you will find something in this book the challenge you and engage your mind. If you don't agree with the author, run your own numbers. Cast your own criteria and see where the calculations lead. Dr. Unwin will show you how. In spite of the fact that I am agnostic and have no particular belief in gods, I find myself in the unusual position of recommending that people buy this book which argues for the existence of God. That is how special this book is. I call this book is a recommended read.
Rating: 
Summary: Boring
Review: Seldom does a book come along that I just cannot finish. "The Probability of God" is one of those books. What can I say? The book is boring to me.
Rating:
Summary: An Excellent Framework for Consideration
Review: Some reviewers have focused too much on Dr. Unwin's conclusion, ignoring the valuable and provoking framework he provides for the overall discussion. In an easy-to-read and witty manner, the author provides a mathmatical context in which to discuss not only the existence of God, but the role of faith in our beliefs. Within that framework, Unwin offers up his own proofs, while leaving adequate room (and clear instruction) for the reader to substitute their own proofs. For any reader that wishes to risk examing their beliefs within a proven, established and logical discipline such as Bayesian probability theory, this is a great read. In the end, it is a means whereby each reader can determine for themselves where belief ends and faith begins.
Rating:
Summary: Humorous and Enlightening!
Review: The title alone intrigued me and the witty writing style kept me reading! Whether you believe in a higher being with 100% certainty, are atheist, or somewhere in between, this book applies thought and theory to God's existence in a fresh and insightful way. Great book for fun and meaningful discussion and debate among friends and book clubs.
Rating:
Summary: Really Unique
Review: This book is pretty unique, and a lot different than I expected. It's funny but deep and authoritative at the same time. It seems pretty bold to calculate the probability that God exists, but the author does it anyway. What's interesting is that he doesn't rely on the usual old arguments of intelligent design of the universe as the case in favor of God. In fact, he completely blows away that sort of argument. His cases for and against God seem balanced, so his conclusions seem convincing. This is definitely worth a read.
|
