BIG DRAGON : The Future of China: WHAT IT MEANS FOR BUSINESS, THE ECONOMY, AND THE GLOBAL ORDER

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Summary: A Realistic Perspective of China Today
Review: Another one of my highly recommended books is Big Dragon: What it means for Business, the Economy, and the Global Order. Overall, the authors have a good comprehension of China's economic and political structure. However, Big Dragon has one important omission. Although the authors casually mention the economic impact of FDI on China by overseas Chinese, I would have devoted at least one entire chapter to the subject. In fact, the vast majority of foreign investment continues to flow from overseas ethnic Chinese around the world (over 80% of FDI). Along with Taiwan, there are significant ethnic Chinese communities across Southeast Asia. Inspite of the war of words, Taiwan has over $40 billion and growing invested in China. The chances of a hot war between China and Taiwan are minimal. The overseas Chinese FDI permeates throughout China's economy in almost every sector including agriculture, biotech, services, high tech manufacturing, etc. Many Chinese officials that I have spoken to would disagree, but I would argue that China's economic renaissance can primarily be attributed to the skills, technology, and capital provided by the overseas ethnic Chinese across East Asia. The growing informal structural ties between the Chinese communities across East Asia and China illustrate the development of a Greater China with Beijing at its core. China's current government is similar in many respects to the earlier dictatorships of the Park regime in South Korea or the Chiang regime in Taiwan.

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Summary: a book to enlighten the ignorant Americans & Europeans.
Review: Big Dragon is a good account of the China issue presently facing the United States. The authors discuss a variety of topics including China's political and economic liberalization, China's role in regional stability (or instability), and the future of Sino-American relations. Particular emphasis is given to the role of the Communist party in China and how it may react to a more politically aware middle class.

The authors try to create the illusion that they are unbiased observers on China. However, it is apparent at the end of the book that they are fervently pro-China. By pro-China I mean that they are among those people who are willing to overlook the many human rights abuses committed by the Chinese government in pursuit of profits. They warn America against trying to improve the human rights situation in China by restricting access to the American market . But they never acknowledge that by keeping our markets fully open we are in fact reinforcing the Communist leadership in their belief that they may act as they wish with impunity.

I personally am not among those who wish to completely cut China off from the world. China holds one-fifth of the world's people and by ignoring their plight we are as morally responsible for their condition as the Chinese leadership. But we need to have a relationship with China that reinforces positive behavior. When the Chinese government loosens the control over the general population we grant them increased access. Only when they have created a truly multi-party political system should we grant them full access to our market.

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Summary: Excellent review of the present and probable future of China
Review: This book does what it sets out to do admirably well, although the reaction of certain readers makes it clear that its approach is lacking in certain areas.

This book is a comprehensive but well-focused review of the current political and economic system of China, recent trends in US-China relationship, and the emerging currents in Chinese society that will shape the country in the next quarter century. The book is written primarily from a business perspective, focusing on China's economic and market potentials (forecasted to match the US in total GDP by the 2020's though still much poorer in per capita terms) and the impact of political developments on the business environment. For those readers not yet familiar with contemporary China, this book is a remarkably well-informed primer. But even old China-hands will find the authors' detailed discussion of the probable future of China (some 100 pages are devoted to the section titled "Geomancing the Dragon") thought-provoking even if their own conclusions may vary.

However, the authors sought to instruct as well as inform. And their recommendations for improving US-China relationship - although perfectly sensible - may not persuade the human rights hawks in the US, who may consider arguments on strictly mercantilist terms immoral. But it's no accident that most of those intimately familiar with China are "pro-China" in the sense defined by a previous reviewer. China has plenty of human rights problems, but it has also come a remarkably long way in a amazingly short time. Progress cannot be measured without the context of history, and it's this area that did not receive sufficient treatment. The general normalcy of China today is an accomplishment that cannot be adequately appreciated without greater understanding of 20th century Chinese history.

There are issues of fundamental human rights and there are issues of political organization. While one is certainly entitled to avidly avocate the political system of his or her choice, one should refrain from waging moral crusades when we are all equally human and fallible.

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Summary: Actually about politics, sociology, and Chinese history
Review: Written about 5 years ago by a NYC investment banker and a China Mgmt consultancy based in CT, this book is naturally positive towards PRChina. This book covers the end of the second decade of Premier Deng's Reform and Opening to foreign investment. And before the Asian crash of 2000.

The authors' point-of-view is towards the political, sociological, and militarily first, economics second, and corporate investment third. They obliquely discuss US corporate investments, but this is neither a How To book, nor a B-school reader. Many remarks and keylines are more towards an extended discussion of temporal news and the sensational, as opposed to business facts and analysis. Like a fleshed out Neisbitt text of glittering generalities.

The strengths of this book are in interpreting and extended discussion on the how's and why's socialism with Chinese characteristics work as it does. When the Western press lays down emotionally charged words of democracy, free market, entrepreneur, etc, these concepts need careful explanations on what, exactly, this means in the Chinese context and the surrounding business milieu. These explanations, implications, and why they are so, as the reader will discover is quite different from straight Western interpretations.

The first half of the book deals with China history since Mao after WWII. Then Deng's Opening in Chap 2, p47 there is a 2-page discussion on Overseas Ethnic Chinese and their investment into the homeland in the Shenzhen SEZ. On p127, the authors agree that a "Greater China" exists including Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the OEChinese business dominated ASEAN countries all cooperating. In Chap 8, they discuss the enormity of the State-Owned-Enterprises which are largely non-performing by western standards, but who employ over 70% of the domestic urban workforce of 170 million people. Many SOEs are producing obsolete products, with a featherbedded workforce, that have been superceded by a market economy in other sectors. The new Premiers Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji appear serious in slowly reforming the SOEs, the bedrock of the socialist empire.

The second half of the book deals with China's problems and issues, starting with Chap 8. Most Western press criticize the apparent lack of responsibility from leaders on these issues, SOEs, banks, SOL, SSI, etc. The authors, in contrast, evaluate this criticism in context of the larger whole and cite how deliberate progress is being made. As illustrated by three entrepreneurial case studies in Part III covering 30 pages, Chinese entrepreneurship is fostered by the Politburo as an experiment to help shore up the SOE profitability. So-called capitalism with Chinese characteristics is fostered in order to quickly develop real estate, along with large OEChinese capital infusions, so that there are suitable industrial parks (SEZ) to attract foreign investment to setup hi-tech manufacturing. The Politburo then covets corporate America with deep pockets in order to gather hard currency, implement new technology, create new jobs, and expand exports to further fund national and educational infrastructure and technology upgrades in SOEs. This conclusion is consistent with Jim Mann's book a decade earlier in "Beijing Jeep," and the authors agree on p90 that for corporate America to be successful in PRChina, it will require both manufacturing and technology transfer to the Chinese JVs. All under the watchful eye and blessing of the Politburo. Pretty crafty!

In Chap14 and 15 The Next Five Years, on p278 significant political and social change will not occur until the Chinese GenX, 5th gens who grew up in a post-Mao era, come to power in about 20 years, about year 2020.

Lets see if any of the author's prophecies came true. While discussed along with MFN status p364, they did not predict that China would win WTO admission in 2001. Also they didn't predict the Millennium crash in Asia, their forecast was for 2004 p341. On p340, they said that the Three Gorges Dam's first generators would turn on in 2003, actual is 2004. On p309, the authors did write about 2 inches on the oil, Persian Gulf, and Islamic issues, but did not predict the US-Iraq War. Pretty myopic vision for globalists? Score is 1 for 4. Not good. There are many more prophesies to 2024, Year of the Dragon, which includes Taiwan's return to the China fold.

In the last Chapter 18, the authors continue harping on US-China Cold-War. They plead that after 30 years, an updated Shanghai Compact 2002 needs to be enacted. I fail to see the significance in ending their book with 20+ pages on the subject, including many shorter US Hawk rampages on the subject spread throughout their text.

The book's rear dust jacket poses 6 fundamental questions on the coming changes in the new world order. These questions must have been written by the editors, because I'd say that the authors did not really specifically address these questions in any detail, read: don't judge a book by its cover, which I read at a local public library.

The authors have 18 Chapters and a 14-page index. Each page has a sidebar quote from important dignitaries, both western and Chinese, hence the inflated 400 page book. There are no tables of World Bank numbers, no pictures or figures or maps. There are 10 pages of Notes, mainly from US / UK periodicals. The Acknowledgement pages give recognition to about 150 people that they interviewed, more than three quarters have Chinese surnames. However, for security reasons, they are not footnoted in the book.