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Beating the Dow (Revised and Updated)

Beating the Dow (Revised and Updated)

List Price: $15.00
Your Price: $10.50
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Not a totally bad method of choosing stocks
Review: "Beating The Dow" by Michael O'Higgins offers the following simple investment strategy. You simply buy the ten highest dividend paying stocks among the Dow Industrial Averages. The Philosophy is that as the value of the stocks increase, via stock price lagging or falling below the market, the dividend yield will tend to rise. (i.e. the assumption is that dividend yield is a proxy for value. One problem is that not all Dow stocks pay out the same level of earnings, so some stocks will tend to have higher dividends.)

While I tend to be skeptical of any investment strategy that is too simple, if you must use such a simple strategy, then you could do far worse selecting the highest dividend paying stocks from the Dow. Of course, the other option is just to index your money in a mutual fund that buys the entire stock market. Vanguard Funds is the leader in such index funds. But, I like dividends.

The difficulty with simple investment strategies is that they tend to be arrived at via data mining. The proponent of the investment method asks "What worked in the past?" and then tries to draw up a canned investment method. Almost always, the proposed method then starts to lag behind in the present and future stock market performance. (the recent performance of this strategy is discussed in another person's great book review. See that.) This is not due to market efficiency or that the method is becoming well known. It just means that the method wasn't entirely valid as a predictive method.

There is the old joke about the "X investment strategy." When a computer was asked to vigorously evaluate the stock market and look for predictors of future investment success, the computer spit back the answer, "Invest in stocks whose name begins with an 'X' and whose name ends with an 'X.' " Xerox was the top performing stock over the period.

"Beating The Dow" is one of those books, if read all by itself, might mislead a new investor into an over-simplified investment strategy. Yet, you might enjoy reading it. And, as stated, you could do worse than holding the ten highest dividend-paying Dow stocks.

"Beating The Dow" also mentions what Michael O'Higgins calls the "Penulatimate Profit Prospect (PPP)" which involves buying just one stock. The Stock with the second lowest price among the ten highest yielding stocks. I consider that Penidiotic. We conservative investors do love our stock dividends, and the focus on dividend yield gets "Beating The Dow" a solid honorable mention.

Peter Hupalo, Author of "Becoming An Investor: Building Wealth By Investing In Stocks, Bonds, And Mutual Funds."

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Not a totally bad method of choosing stocks
Review: "Beating The Dow" by Michael O'Higgins offers the following simple investment strategy. You simply buy the ten highest dividend paying stocks among the Dow Industrial Averages. The Philosophy is that as the value of the stocks increase, via stock price lagging or falling below the market, the dividend yield will tend to rise. (i.e. the assumption is that dividend yield is a proxy for value. One problem is that not all Dow stocks pay out the same level of earnings, so some stocks will tend to have higher dividends.)

While I tend to be skeptical of any investment strategy that is too simple, if you must use such a simple strategy, then you could do far worse selecting the highest dividend paying stocks from the Dow. Of course, the other option is just to index your money in a mutual fund that buys the entire stock market. Vanguard Funds is the leader in such index funds. But, I like dividends.

The difficulty with simple investment strategies is that they tend to be arrived at via data mining. The proponent of the investment method asks "What worked in the past?" and then tries to draw up a canned investment method. Almost always, the proposed method then starts to lag behind in the present and future stock market performance. (the recent performance of this strategy is discussed in another person's great book review. See that.) This is not due to market efficiency or that the method is becoming well known. It just means that the method wasn't entirely valid as a predictive method.

There is the old joke about the "X investment strategy." When a computer was asked to vigorously evaluate the stock market and look for predictors of future investment success, the computer spit back the answer, "Invest in stocks whose name begins with an 'X' and whose name ends with an 'X.' " Xerox was the top performing stock over the period.

"Beating The Dow" is one of those books, if read all by itself, might mislead a new investor into an over-simplified investment strategy. Yet, you might enjoy reading it. And, as stated, you could do worse than holding the ten highest dividend-paying Dow stocks.

"Beating The Dow" also mentions what Michael O'Higgins calls the "Penulatimate Profit Prospect (PPP)" which involves buying just one stock. The Stock with the second lowest price among the ten highest yielding stocks. I consider that Penidiotic. We conservative investors do love our stock dividends, and the focus on dividend yield gets "Beating The Dow" a solid honorable mention.

Peter Hupalo, Author of "Becoming An Investor: Building Wealth By Investing In Stocks, Bonds, And Mutual Funds."

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: The numbers speak for themselves
Review: i liked reading this book from the historical point of view. it kind of tells you the names of people who started a business and how things went belly-up for a while. the investment methods presented are very basic and fun to read. i think i can trust my math, however, i am not sure how michael added up his percentages. he has tables of total returns all over the book. looking at any one of them and for example on pages 193-194, how did he come up with such cumulatives ? if he totaled each column separately and got the numbers. then the added sums are incorrect.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Beating the Dow, Still an Unbeatable Read
Review: Michael O'Higgin's investing classic holds up as well in the New Millenium as it did when it first hit book stands 10 years ago.

He maintains that it is still possible to beat the DOW by buying the 10 highest yielding stocks and tweaking your holdings each year, with correspondingly greater rates of return with a two- or five-stock selection from the group. O'Higgin's admits in the new eidtion that the strategy has been muddied by a drop in the relative importance of dividends as a part of total yield of the DOW. Dividends and payouts have lost lost out to stock buybacks, in part because dividends are taxed at a higher rate than long-term capital gains from stock sales. Changes in the DOW have also reduced the overall dividend payout. Of the most recent additions, Microsoft pays no dividend and Intel and Home Depot have nominal payouts. O'Higgin's strategy may also be less effective because it's simplicity and past returns attracted the attention of Wall Street money managers and of many, many individual investors. There is at least one web site devoted to the Dogs of the Dow and a number of similar investment strategies were profiled for several years on the Motley Fool website.

Nor is the most valuable part of O'Higgin's book his thumbnail sketches of other value strategies for beating the market with a basket of DOW stocks. Several seem downright ridiculous. I remain skeptical that investing based on presidential election cycles or end-of-year asset sales by fund managers can yield meaningful, long-term results for individual investors.

The value of this book is O'Higgin's championing of value investing in general and his highlighting of the resilience of the DOW stocks in markets bull and bear. Most people aren't professional investors and lack the time and resources to profit from a strategy of active trading. If the efficient markets guys are right, then buying all 30 DOW stocks and holding on long-term will beat returns of most professionally baskets of stocks, with less risk and less payouts for taxes and trading costs to boot. Or maybe buying the highest yielders in any given year and holding. Anyway, you get the picture.

Regardless of whether you think the high-yield 10 is still capable of outgaining the overall DOW, O'Higgin's book is, to me, as valuable in 2001 as it was when I first read it in 1993.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: intro to 1 style mechanical (ie. rigid rule based) investing
Review: O'Higgins writes nicely... and identifies with specificity one generally agreeable style of mechanical stock investing... it doesn't particularly work well recently... but it is a useful text to introduce the idea of rule-based (non-emotional) trading decision making. assumptions of money management particularly out of phase with first tier thinking.. but i like the book.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Investing sensibly
Review: Some people might laugh at this book specially the brokers who make living by sucking the commision out of an average investor. What had happened in the NASDAQ in 1999 before the correction was absolutely mind blowing and this book might have looked like a bad joke i.e. advocating to invest in companies like International Paper! but now that the dotcoms are down the drain, the valuations are somewhat back on earth, the margin-debt bitten people are done crying, maybe it is time that us i.e. average investors read this book.

This book as the name says is all about investing in Dow companies, the giants of the US and global economy. The companies which I truly believe that world could come to an end but GE would still be there. The book covers all the Dow components individually along with their historical financial performance, weaknesses, strenghts and their power to stay in business by being profitable over years and years. There are many different 'low risk' investment strategies covered in this book such as 'High Yielding 5'. These are the 5 Dow stock that you pick annually based on the criteria described, HOLD it for 1 year, redo the math (barely any)and pick your 5 stocks again. You also sell some at this point that didn;t meet your criteria and pick the new ones to fill their spot.

Sounds simple, yes! and that's the way it should be. Not only you can ride out the swings of the stock market in this way but also save a ton on commisions, taxes and most importantly be less stressed.

If you read the Motley Fool, you'll notice some of their strategies are derived from O'Higgin's methods.

A must read for all investors, specially younger people like myself who want to start building the nest yesterday!

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: The easiest no brain way to make money.
Review: This book is now quite dated as far as the discussion of the individual Dow stocks, but the principals are still the same. I have never lost money doing this formula ever. In fact, I now average about 27% over the past seven years with only looking at my portfolio once a year. I now buy this book for a lot of my friends who ask me about investing when they have no experience. Adam Shaughnessy ashag@flash.net

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Beating the Dow, Still an Unbeatable Read
Review: This is a classic book describing a simple method for achieving outstanding results in the stock market by investing in a selection of five stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial average. There is one little problem. The method hasn't worked very well recently. Taking some data from the table on page 204 of the O'higgins book we see the % gain or loss of the selected five stocks compared with the Dow Jones Industrial Average: (Year, Five stocks, Dow Jones Average);(1994 8.6 4.9),(1995 30.5 36.4), (1996 27.9 28.9), (1997 20.5 24.9), (1998 12.3 17.9). The method has faied to Beat the DOW every year since 1994. My own calculations shows that this under performance continues into 2001. The Motley Fool Group has done extensive research on this method and after their initial enthusiam they have recently terminated their recommendation. Serious students of the market should buy this book. Further study of this approach may lead to new methods for "Beating the Dow".

Rating: 3 stars
Summary: Sounds too good to be true
Review: This is a classic book describing a simple method for achieving outstanding results in the stock market by investing in a selection of five stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial average. There is one little problem. The method hasn't worked very well recently. Taking some data from the table on page 204 of the O'higgins book we see the % gain or loss of the selected five stocks compared with the Dow Jones Industrial Average: (Year, Five stocks, Dow Jones Average);(1994 8.6 4.9),(1995 30.5 36.4), (1996 27.9 28.9), (1997 20.5 24.9), (1998 12.3 17.9). The method has faied to Beat the DOW every year since 1994. My own calculations shows that this under performance continues into 2001. The Motley Fool Group has done extensive research on this method and after their initial enthusiam they have recently terminated their recommendation. Serious students of the market should buy this book. Further study of this approach may lead to new methods for "Beating the Dow".


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