Rating: Summary: An academic's view of Wall Street Review: A Random Walk takes the reader on a path from the point of view of an academic, rather than that of a trader. That is sufficient to make this book different from most other stock market tomes. Malkiel's premise is that neither the the average investor nor the professional trader can expect to perform better that the "market" over any significant period of time. He considers market events to be random, and thus unpredictable. He offers piles of data to support his contentions, and his arguments are compelling.Yet, those who trade using technical analysis scoff at books such at this, claiming their systems consistently beat the averages. The author points to the fact that most managers of mutual funds, pensions etc. fail to perform better than index funds and Malkiel recommends that public investors place their investment money into broad based index funds. The S&P 500 Index fund is recommended, as it is unrealistic to expect fund managers to perform better. This classic has been around for 30 years and this revised edition is worth your time, especially if you have never read an earlier edition. Just be aware that many technical traders consider this to be a work of fiction.
Rating: Summary: Malkiel has an irrefutable position (paradoxically) Review: Burton G. Malkiel's "Random Walk," first published over 30 years ago, is now a classic text on investing and is surely worth anyone's time and effort. Simply written, Malkiel conveys the debate over the validity of the efficient market hypothesis with ease and effectiveness; this edition's updated comments on the dot-com craze are insightful and probably worth the price of the book themselves. While I support the view that fundamental and technical analysis generally offer very little in the way of helpful advice, I believe that Malkiel's view that no investment strategy can beat the market over the long run is, to put it simply, irrefutable. Therein, however, lies its problem. Suppose, for instance, that I have this remarkable strategy of buying and selling stocks which has earned me consistant long run returns on the market. Of course, if I tell anyone the specifics of this strategy and how wonderful it works, they will want to start using it for themselves. But then my strategy will stop working; the more people use a particular strategy, the harder it is for that strategy to continue work. Malkiel himself notes that if everyone uses the strategy of buying stocks on January 1st and selling them five days later, a simple strategy of buying on December 31st and selling on the 4th will generate consistant, long run returns. But then, if everyone adopts the new strategy, the long run returns vanish! The key to a successful investing strategy, then, is to keep it secret. Since any strategy published in Malkiel's "Random Walk" is likely to be read and studied by millions, the moment he publishes something that would refute the efficient market hypothesis, the hypothesis is again reconfirmed. Clever devil, that Malkiel. Other than that, my only problem with Malkiel's book is that he refers to countless articles and studies published in academia, but he leaves the inquiring reader clueless as to where to look for them. A simple "references" section would solve this problem (although it would easily provide further reason to justify publishing a new edition, thus earning Malkiel even more money).
Rating: Summary: Solid advice for funding your life Review: In a nutshell Malkiel's advice is to own your own home, buy no-load index funds (equities and bonds), buy international index funds, and mix your investments according to your age. You should also have medical and plain term life insurance, and cash on hand for a few months in case of an emergency. This book is a complete course in how to manage your money effectively, whether you're a millionaire or a low-income earner. It also gently but firmly chastises proponents of get-rich-quick schemes such as day traders. First, the book explains what is financial risk, and points out that everything is risky, even insured savings accounts since inflation can destroy the value of cash. Malkiel describes just how risky various investments are, and how the risk is one investment is often offset by the risk in another. Second, Malkiel describes a variety of specific investments (e.g. no load index funds, your own home, individual stocks) and suggests how individual investors should mix them, depending on their personal circumstances. For instance, an ambitious young woman in her twenties can consider aggressive high-risk high-growth funds. If they boom, she's rich, if they bust she's young enough to recover her losses through income. This would not be true of a middle-aged couple about to pay for their children's college years. "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" should be in every family's library.
Rating: Summary: All-around sound advice Review: Mr. Malkiel provides an outstanding all-in-one stock book for the educated but non-technical investor. He includes overviews of the financial, economic and psychological foundations for stock markets, as well as entertaining summaries of the history of stock markets in the world and in the U.S. Mr. Malkiel takes a sensible, long-term approach to investing with stocks and bonds, at the same time pouring cold water on various market theories. He approvingly quotes the phrase "the stock market is like a casino in which the odds are rigged in favor of the player" which is probably the best summing-up I've ever encountered when thinking about stocks. Some of his more salient and direct advice includes these gems:
* "A simple 'buy-and-hold' strategy typically makes as much or more money than technical strategies" (p 151).
* "No technical scheme whatever could work for any length of time and ...even if they did work, the schemes would be bound to destroy themselves" (p 167).
* Regularities in stock market movements are arbitraged away over time; whoever spots such a regularity would not tell everyone else, but instead would keep it to him- or herself to get rich (p 168).
* Many analysts are incompetent or are compromised by institutional conflicts of interest (pp 181, 183).
* "The evidence from several studies is remarkably uniform. Investors have done no better with the average mutual fund than they could have done by purchasing and holding an unmanaged broad stock index" (p 187).
* Don't ignore small cap companies: "smaller firms tend to have higher rates of return" (p 239).
* Investors should look for stocks with relatively low P/E ratios and low values relative to their book values (pp 239, 261).
* The only market-timing strategy that makes any empirical sense is to purchase stocks that have had relatively poor recent performance (p 257).
* The stock market goes through manias but is fundamentally logical (p 258).
* Your tolerance for risk should be judged by how well you can sleep at night with your portfolio (p 280).
* Zero coupon bonds can be a good investment if the tax aspects are adequately addressed (p 299).
* "I recommend low-expense bond index funds" (p 300).
* "I now believe that if an investor is to buy one U.S. index fund, the best general U.S. index to emulate is the broader Wilshire 5,000-Stock Index, not the S&P 500" (p 360).
Rating: Summary: Best alternative if you can't follow value investing Review: The book has provided the best alternative if you can't follow value investing. It indicated that security market is semi-strong and you cannot beat it easily. However, if you think that you are smart as Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett or Philip Fisher, go ahead and pick stock by yourself.
I give it four star is because it does not provide the risk on buying index fund in dollar-cost averaging method. For example, Nikkei 225 falling from 80,000 to 12,000 from 1990 to 2000. Can anyone take profit during this 10 years?
I suggest to read the book as personal financial planning category instead of investing.
Rating: Summary: Packed With Knowledge! Review: The first edition of Bernard Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street appeared in 1973, a few years after the twentieth century's first big computer technology bubble, the go-go era, popped. This, the newest and eighth edition, appears after the popping of the dot.com bubble, the last of the twentieth century's great computer technology bubbles. Investors burned in the first bubble could have been excused; after all, they didn't have Malkiel's book. But it's astounding how avidly Internet speculators threw aside all that Malkiel and others had taught them. This book belongs on every investor's bookshelf, and ought to be consulted, or at least touched to the forehead, before any investment decision. Most investment books aren't trustworthy, because their authors are salespeople who are really making a pitch instead of trying to inform you. Malkiel is disinterested. He is a teacher with the intellectual discipline of a true financial economist, and yet he writes as vividly as a good journalist. We recommend this classic: all you need to know about the market is between its covers.
Rating: Summary: Excellent Primer for Young Investors Review: The message the author makes here is IMPORTANT to young investors. Most investors are putting their money in mutual funds. Why pay high fees for marginal performance when you can pay small fees to match the market with an index fund? The point makes excellent sense for young investors.
The author makes a wonderful case and some very good points. The end of the book includes recommendations that you can use to build your portfolio. I truly enjoyed and used the information in this book.
Rating: Summary: Has Solid Information Review: This book has its rough spots, but all in all it's definitely worth the money. This book has a very comprehensive treatment of risk, reward, and diversification, and these alone make it worth reading. I dispute some things that Malkiel says. He seems emotionally attached to the efficient market theory, and no piece of evidence can make him question it. It gets a little annoying to read page after page of examples that clearly show inefficient stock pricing, only to have Malkiel "explain away" the apparent contradiction with the efficient market theory. Throughout the book he also unnecessarily insults practicioners of technical and fundamental analysis, which is probably why there are some emotionally charged negative reviews. [An earlier reviewer said that this book was geared towards women. I don't know how he infered this!] Though Malkiel did not convince me of the validity of the efficient market theory, he did convince me with this book that it is very, very difficult for anyone (professional or independent investor) to consistently beat the market averages. If you can overlook the negatives of this book you will find that there is quite a bit of excellent information.
Rating: Summary: Superb book Review: This book presents the theory that nothing can beat the S&P 500 over the long term, and then presents facts and data to back up the claim. The support backing up the claim is very strong.
You should read this book if you believe in market-timing. Why? Because it's a good argument that you're wrong. And if you are right (unlikely), then atleast it will help you build a stronger theory by being able to avoid possible pitfalls.
It's a great book, I highly recommend it.
Rating: Summary: Required Reading Review: This is actually three books in one.
The first part is a history of stock market bubbles from the 17th to the 21st century. That, in itself, is enough to make this book invaluable.
The second part is an excellent introduction to different investment and stock valuation methods.
The third part is the author's specific investment advice. It is not, as some reviewers have said, a "buy index funds" approach. It is based on asset allocation between stocks, cash, bonds, and real estate, depending on your age and risk tolerance.
While some people, who I am sure are very successful investors, look down on this "simple" asset allocation advice, in my opinion Malkiel's suggestions are right on the money for over 90% of investors. If you can get rich by investing in the stock market, good for you. This section of the book is about preserving and slowly growing your hard-earned savings, based on the amount of risk that you choose to take.
Bottom line: Read this book. It can save you thousands of dollars in bad investments.
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