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Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets (Financial Times Prentice Hall Books)

Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets (Financial Times Prentice Hall Books)

List Price: $29.95
Your Price: $20.37
Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Excelent book title
Review: ...It's an excellent book that can be summed up by it's title.

If you are a trader, you can buy the book, but in the end you realize that if you just look at the front cover and trade with the trend you will do fine without reading the rest of the pages. The book contains intellectual discourse that is quite satisfying but add little to help your actual trading. The title is it.

If you are *not* a trader, and want to read an intellectual discussion on how great traders trade in general, then this is a good book to read.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Great read for all types of traders
Review: As a student of the market for decades I was blown away by this book. It is one of the top five investment books of all time. The author describes what trend following is and who the players are. It simplifies the issue of how to profit in the market. How can anyone argue with the cold hard performance numbers.

It does not give you the save all formula for trading. It does not provide the secret forumulas on how to make money. They don't exist. It does provide valuable information from existing trend followers who have been using the method for years - decades.

Its easy to read and quick to comprehend. Should be on every traders bookcase.

Well worth the money.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Gotta Read it
Review: Chapter three will change your outlook on life. Absolute returns - critical to success in the markets!

It doesn't matter what the unemployment rate is if you are the one unemployed. The performance of the S&P is inconsequential if your account is down 20%. What matters is the balance of your account on December 31st.

Through the increases of the late `90's I got caught up in analyst recommendations or the latest skirt on CNBC. I knew more about the CNBC personalities than I did about my own family.

My method of portfolio balancing was having a little of Xerox to balance out Worldcom and Yahoo. 2000 and 2001 came. My account was down 80% from its peak. The S&P was down 50% and I was down 80%. Did it matter what the S&P returned? No. I was still down 80%.

The author uses a quote from Ed Seykota - "No matter what kind of math you use, you wind up measuring volatility with your gut." Brilliant.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Just read it
Review: Every few years the geniuses is the financial press tell us that trend following is dead. In the late 1990's everyone swore that trend following was over, mind you in the midst of the largest bull TREND for Wall Street in years. This book brings clarity to a largely un-told subject. There are traders who silently profit over periods of time.

I found the chapter on Holy Grails particularly important. Buy and hold was finally tackled! Another key element in the book is absolute returns. Why compare your trading to the averages of Wall Street. Your return is your return.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Acceptance with Traders
Review: I found the following endorsements helpful:

"Michael Covel's Trend Following is a breakthrough book that captures the essence of what really makes markets tick. Diligently researched and comprehensive in scope, it will replace Market Wizards as the must-read bible for a new generation of traders."
Jonathan Hoenig
Portfolio Manager, Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC
Fox News Contributor

"Michael Covel's Trend Following: Essential."
Ed Seykota
Trend Follower for 35 years and Original Market Wizard
The Trading Tribe

"Trend Following by Michael Covel? I'm long this book."
Bob Spear
Developer of Trading Recipes Software

"Michael Covel has written the definitive book on trend following. With careful research and clear insight he has captured the essence of the most successful of all trading strategies. Michael knows his subject matter and he writes about it with passion, conviction and enthusiasm. This enjoyable and well written book is destined to become a classic."
Charles LeBeau
Technical Traders Guide to Computer Analysis of the Futures Markets

"Trend Following is an engrossing and educational journey through the principles, pitfalls, players and psychology of aggressive technical trading of the investment markets. Rich in its wisdom and historical study."
Gerald Appel
President, Signalert Corporation

Nothing fancy. No crazy promises. Just the facts. If you are a gambler, you won't like it.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Overrated
Review: I've read close to 100 trading books on various trading methods--fundamentals, technicals, options trading, etc. I trade and I would consider myself a trend follower--of sorts.

The author does make a good point--trend following is a valid and underestimated methodology. It is the method that discretionary traders like Edwards and Magee would advocate.

Trend following is based on events that the market underestimates. Price action does not follow the normal distribution, as the statisticians would have it. Events that are statistically improbable are much more frequent than chance would allow. Trend following technical analysis attempts to catch these moves.

The author underestimates the drawbacks of a strict trend-following methodology--large draw-downs, with a large percentage of losing trades. This drawback--low reliability is also a strength--most market participants are not interested in profitable system with a large number of losers. A more severe drawback--a large amount of capital is needed to trade such a system to handle the inevitable drawdowns.

He fails to address this issue by simply suggesting that if you take enough trades, eventually one will go your way and make up for your losses. Maybe so. But who would be willing to suffer draw-downs in the range of 30% or more, waiting for one or 2 big trades to come? Not many. Increased market volatility makes trend following systems profitable, but more risky.

If you examine _The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies_ you will see that most mechanical systems degrade over time. Volatility breakout systems used to be very popular. But with increased volatility, simple breakout systems give more frequent losing trades, rendering them unprofitable for the test period.

The author overestimates the performance of mechanical systems, most of which are trend following. Historical testing tells you what has happened, not what is going to happen. This was the mistake of Long Term Capital Management. Trading, like poker, is a people game played with money. It isn't a number's game (like blackjack) the quants would have you believe it is.

Trading requires you to anticipate changes in investor expectations. Technical AND fundamental analysis helps you understand the forces that are influencing market participants. Understanding fundamentals can help you filter out the frequent false signals from technical models, while technical analysis serves as an excellent risk management and timing tool.

There are many ways of profiting in the market. Trend following is one. It isn't the best one, nor is it the only one. I'd argue traders would be better served focusing on classical technical analysis (chart patterns), and then spending most of their time learning how to manage risk. You can still make money with these "old" concepts, and gain practical experience with the psychology of trading.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: It's about trading with the trend
Review: The title says it all. Trade with the trend, buy when it's low, sell when it's high. There isn't much methodology in the book. There are some bios of successful traders, stories of significant financial events. But not much on how to do it. You don't need to buy this book, all you have to do is read the appendix and remember to trade following the trend.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Trend Following Controversy
Review: This book sure has had generated some controversy! Tried to read it with an open mind. However, I was influenced by the large number of market pros and traders that endorsed it at the author's web site for the book. My conclusion? If you want someone to promise you the world with loads of instant riches, Covel is not your guy. But if you want a down to earth, incredibly well researched work, that explains Trend Following from top to bottom -- buy this book. A great quote from Ayn Rand mentioned in the book sums up the mindset you need:

"What objectivity and the study of philosophy requires is not an 'open mind,' but an active mind-a mind able and eagerly willing to examine ideas, but to examine them critically."


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