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Rating: 
Summary: A great demolition job on the forecasting profession
Review: Sherden has written a great book with only one flaw.He doesn't attempt to get too theoretical as to why prediction is hard. He just looks at the evidence and finds that it is so. None of the predictions that regularly fill newspapers, business books, government economic forecasts, stock-market guides are demonstrably better than tossing a coin. This is a crucially important message as the consequences of believing a duff forecast are enormous. Better to recognise the uncertainty and plan to be flexible. I'm surprised at the negative comments from reviewers who wanted some analytical framework to deal with all this. This smacks of those who respond to uncertainty by demanding a more precise forecast. The first step for most people is to recognise how worthless forecasting is. I work with businesses relying on forecasts and I've found Sherden's book invaluable at shifting their thinking. I don't expect Sherden to provide solutions; thats my job. The only flaw in the book is that Sherden does not differentiate enough between the predictable and the unpredictable components of the future. There is some good thinking on this in the literature on scenario planning (but Sherden's fundamental thesis stands: most important things are not inherently predictable).
Rating:
Summary: An excellent survey of the field of prediction
Review: Sherden sets out to do what no one else seems to want to -- evaluate people who make predictions based on the accuracy of their predictions. And with a few exceptions, the evaluation is very much "thumbs down." What Sherden doesn't do is tell us why people continue to believe predictions, and why billions of dollars continue to be spent based on predictions that aren't any better than throwing darts. But that's a good topic for another book. This book is absolutely required reading for anyone who wonders whether stock analysts or economists really know what the future holds. The answer is simple: they don't.
Rating:
Summary: An excellent survey of the field of prediction
Review: Sherden sets out to do what no one else seems to want to -- evaluate people who make predictions based on the accuracy of their predictions. And with a few exceptions, the evaluation is very much "thumbs down." What Sherden doesn't do is tell us why people continue to believe predictions, and why billions of dollars continue to be spent based on predictions that aren't any better than throwing darts. But that's a good topic for another book. This book is absolutely required reading for anyone who wonders whether stock analysts or economists really know what the future holds. The answer is simple: they don't.
Rating:
Summary: Make a plan,work the plan,and keep your eyes&ears open
Review: The Fortune Sellers is an extremely well researched and written book for anyone who prepares or uses forecasts. This book reviews forecasting: weather, science, stock market, population, business, and futurology. This book is essential reading for anyone who should understand the limits of predicating the future. "Make a plan, work the plan, and keep your eyes and ears open."
Rating:
Summary: Make a plan,work the plan,and keep your eyes&ears open
Review: The Fortune Sellers is an extremely well researched and written book for anyone who prepares or uses forecasts. This book reviews forecasting: weather, science, stock market, population, business, and futurology. This book is essential reading for anyone who should understand the limits of predicating the future. "Make a plan, work the plan, and keep your eyes and ears open."
Rating: 
Summary: Disappointing survey read
Review: This book is nothing more than telling you things you already know (eg: weather forcasts are not accurate, you cannot predict the stock market ect). The author does not provide any rational, framework or theory for why these things can be fortold other than some vauge references to chaos and some politically correct references to the Santa Fe Institute. A real disappointment; it is written more like a newpaper narrative of what is rather than an analysis of why it is or what it should be. I was particularly dismayed since this book was an Amazon recommendation for business books. They missed the boat on this one.
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