Rating: 
Summary: Disappointing survey read
Review: A generic overview of the forecasting industry, the Fortune Sellers doesn't leave the reader with much strong analytical material. In the technology/sociology/futurist segment Sherden relies too heavily upon individual comments from books/articles that didn't influence many people at all beyond 15 minutes of fame. Doesn't spend enough time on differentiating btw the spheres of self-fulfilling prophecy vs. those that are out of the prognosticators control. Also, uses a strange last chapter to create a management thesis-- what? if I wanted to read organizational design theory I'd select something else.
Rating: 
Summary: Insightfull and thought provoking book
Review: As a business person dealing daily with the vagaries of the marketplace there is always a hope that someone, somewhere can tell me what the future holds. This book is a great place to start learning that NO ONE knows what the future holds. Instead, one can spend a great deal of money attempting to learn from "gurus" who will simply take your money and run. Wish there had been more suggestions in the book on how to actually plan more effectively for the future.
Rating: 
Summary: Author's reply to Mark McDonald
Review: In reference to Mr. McDonald's comment that my book is about "telling you things you already know," I would like to point out that it took me three years and about 2,000 sources to develop (and support) the conclusions in my book. My hat is off to Mr. McDonald if he already knew all this information, especially since it covers such diverse fields as meteorology, economics, demographics, and sociology. Further, my book is going to be used as part of a course at MIT's Sloan School where some leading academics thought that something new and useful could be learned from the book.
Rating: 
Summary: A welcome contribution!
Review: Mr. Sherden gives us a welcome contribution to a growing appreciation of chaotic and complex systems. I chose this book for my web site's monthly book review because of it's depth of resources and scope of disciplines addressed. The book is not a superficial debunking, and inspires a growing sensitivity to non-linear systems. Without preaching or whining, this book helps us take an openminded approach to the inherent power and limits of prognostication.
Rating:
Summary: A great demolition job on the forecasting profession
Review: Sherden has written a great book with only one flaw.He doesn't attempt to get too theoretical as to why prediction is hard. He just looks at the evidence and finds that it is so. None of the predictions that regularly fill newspapers, business books, government economic forecasts, stock-market guides are demonstrably better than tossing a coin. This is a crucially important message as the consequences of believing a duff forecast are enormous. Better to recognise the uncertainty and plan to be flexible. I'm surprised at the negative comments from reviewers who wanted some analytical framework to deal with all this. This smacks of those who respond to uncertainty by demanding a more precise forecast. The first step for most people is to recognise how worthless forecasting is. I work with businesses relying on forecasts and I've found Sherden's book invaluable at shifting their thinking. I don't expect Sherden to provide solutions; thats my job. The only flaw in the book is that Sherden does not differentiate enough between the predictable and the unpredictable components of the future. There is some good thinking on this in the literature on scenario planning (but Sherden's fundamental thesis stands: most important things are not inherently predictable).
Rating:
Summary: An excellent survey of the field of prediction
Review: Sherden sets out to do what no one else seems to want to -- evaluate people who make predictions based on the accuracy of their predictions. And with a few exceptions, the evaluation is very much "thumbs down." What Sherden doesn't do is tell us why people continue to believe predictions, and why billions of dollars continue to be spent based on predictions that aren't any better than throwing darts. But that's a good topic for another book. This book is absolutely required reading for anyone who wonders whether stock analysts or economists really know what the future holds. The answer is simple: they don't.
Rating:
Summary: An excellent survey of the field of prediction
Review: Sherden sets out to do what no one else seems to want to -- evaluate people who make predictions based on the accuracy of their predictions. And with a few exceptions, the evaluation is very much "thumbs down." What Sherden doesn't do is tell us why people continue to believe predictions, and why billions of dollars continue to be spent based on predictions that aren't any better than throwing darts. But that's a good topic for another book. This book is absolutely required reading for anyone who wonders whether stock analysts or economists really know what the future holds. The answer is simple: they don't.
Rating:
Summary: Make a plan,work the plan,and keep your eyes&ears open
Review: The Fortune Sellers is an extremely well researched and written book for anyone who prepares or uses forecasts. This book reviews forecasting: weather, science, stock market, population, business, and futurology. This book is essential reading for anyone who should understand the limits of predicating the future. "Make a plan, work the plan, and keep your eyes and ears open."
Rating:
Summary: Make a plan,work the plan,and keep your eyes&ears open
Review: The Fortune Sellers is an extremely well researched and written book for anyone who prepares or uses forecasts. This book reviews forecasting: weather, science, stock market, population, business, and futurology. This book is essential reading for anyone who should understand the limits of predicating the future. "Make a plan, work the plan, and keep your eyes and ears open."
Rating:
Summary: This book debunks futorology as modern-day charlatanism
Review: The most enjoyable aspect of this book is the way in which Sherden reveals overpaid, self-important 'gurus' like Paul Ehrlich, Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt, and Faith Popcorn (real name: Plotkin) to be little more than modern-day charlatans. Whether in the field of long-range weather forecasts, earthquake prediction, stock market upheavals, or the course of technological change, Sherden demonstrates that most futurologists do less well than a coin-flipping average. The only ones who avoid being thoroughly embarrassed by reality are those who make 'predictions' that are so vague they can be construed as meaning, well, anything at all (Nostrodamus was the past master at this, but Toffler is right up there too). Significantly, futurologists missed such key events as the advent of the PC, the rise of the Internet, and the collapse of communism. Sherden does not deny that there are ebbs and flows in the course of human events, but that is a long way from the detailed forecasts that pseudo-scientific groups such as the Club of Rome have made in the past -- and which have since caught up with them. Sherden notes that Winston Churchill (who once dabbled in futurology himself) concluded that the future was "just one damn thing after another" -- which pretty well sums it up, when you think about it. Perhaps what Sherden should look at next is astrology and the various strains of New Age futurology. He says he has no plans to write such a book but no-one, of course, can predict the future.
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