SURVIVING THE GREAT DEPRESSION

Rating:
Summary: A Very Good Read
Review: I purchased this book sometime in 1989 and recently reread it after reading Conquer the Crash by Robert Prechter. Although Batra misses his prediction by 13 years, in many ways he just predicted the upcoming event too early. In some ways, his theory of social cyles reminds me of Prechter's Elliot Waves in the sense the both suggest a sort of determinism that revolves around the affairs of men. That's one reason that I wanted to reread Batra.

Much of what Batra offers is quite sober and gives some food for thought. I find the discussion of speculative bubbles particularly appropriate given recent events which he could not have known about 13 years ago. Back in 1989, several things were occurring (i.e. S & L debacle, recession, real estate crash) that could have resulted in a very significant downturn. According to Batra, he didn't anticipate the influx of Japanese investment in US assets in response to the Japanese central bank forcing interest rates to zero. He suggests that this increase in foreign investment averted the financial collaspe he predicted. He is correct on this point as our current account deficit up to recently has been reinvested by foreigners in US financial assets. Now with the dollar faltering against major currencies combined with near zero interest rates here, these flows have now begun to reverse. A severe economic contraction is now within the realm of possibility.

Rating:
Summary: A Very Good Read
Review: Is this merely a post-ponement? Perhaps the year 2010 should be inserted into the title?

Put 3 economists in a room and you'll get six answers, if your lucky. A good idea is to read books put forth by economists 10 years and longer in the past. You'll see how often most of them are not only misguided and incorrect, but also out on planet Mars. However, some offer good insights into cyclical trends and patterns juxtaposed with current political, technological, and societal evolution. Now, you can keep this in mind when you are reading the current books, newsletters, and magazines from economists, investment gurus, analysts, etc.

Dr. Batra covers many facts of the 1980s such as the Tax Reform Act of 1986, banking conditions, and the exportation of American labor and manufacturing jobs to LDCs among other conditions.
Covering dozens of areas in investing, here is one example of advice. He specifically advised people to liquidate tax-deferred savings such as KEOGHS and IRAs. page 178 states: "Premature withdrawal of funds in Keoghs and IRA plans may then be the safest bet in spite of various penalties, especially if they are entrusted to non-banking institutions. The next question is: what should you do with the money? Can you trust the banks at all?" ---end quote. Batra then promotes the danger of putting money in banks. Real estate is also getting ready to crumble. He did state several times, that he hoped his forecasting would turn out to be incorrect, and he (as all economists seem to do), provide the solutions via tax restructuring, monetary policy, and budget allocation.

Interesting, is that these forecasts were obviously made before the exponential growth and explosion of the Internet, which greatly transformed the economy, and markets. So....what would the economy have been like had it not been for the dot.com explosion? And, now in 2003, after that bubble has burst, will there be wage growth and middle-class job creation in the years to come....?

His "Law of Cycles" has eruditic roots. Batra, an avid reader and self-studied student of world history, international trade, politics, and humanities, noted several areas of the world and the-then present conditions that brought him to his conclusions. He did have the courage to write his beliefs (which he profited from tremendously), and write them in a very easy-to-read way for the masses, or laymen population. (Marketing?) In sum, reading economic books of the past, whether theory, or in historical factual disciplines, helps us make better decisions today, in our attempt to gauge the future.

Rating:
Summary: So...13 years later....
Review: Is this merely a post-ponement? Perhaps the year 2010 should be inserted into the title?

Put 3 economists in a room and you'll get six answers, if your lucky. A good idea is to read books put forth by economists 10 years and longer in the past. You'll see how often most of them are not only misguided and incorrect, but also out on planet Mars. However, some offer good insights into cyclical trends and patterns juxtaposed with current political, technological, and societal evolution. Now, you can keep this in mind when you are reading the current books, newsletters, and magazines from economists, investment gurus, analysts, etc.

Dr. Batra covers many facts of the 1980s such as the Tax Reform Act of 1986, banking conditions, and the exportation of American labor and manufacturing jobs to LDCs among other conditions.
Covering dozens of areas in investing, here is one example of advice. He specifically advised people to liquidate tax-deferred savings such as KEOGHS and IRAs. page 178 states: "Premature withdrawal of funds in Keoghs and IRA plans may then be the safest bet in spite of various penalties, especially if they are entrusted to non-banking institutions. The next question is: what should you do with the money? Can you trust the banks at all?" ---end quote. Batra then promotes the danger of putting money in banks. Real estate is also getting ready to crumble. He did state several times, that he hoped his forecasting would turn out to be incorrect, and he (as all economists seem to do), provide the solutions via tax restructuring, monetary policy, and budget allocation.

Interesting, is that these forecasts were obviously made before the exponential growth and explosion of the Internet, which greatly transformed the economy, and markets. So....what would the economy have been like had it not been for the dot.com explosion? And, now in 2003, after that bubble has burst, will there be wage growth and middle-class job creation in the years to come....?

His "Law of Cycles" has eruditic roots. Batra, an avid reader and self-studied student of world history, international trade, politics, and humanities, noted several areas of the world and the-then present conditions that brought him to his conclusions. He did have the courage to write his beliefs (which he profited from tremendously), and write them in a very easy-to-read way for the masses, or laymen population. (Marketing?) In sum, reading economic books of the past, whether theory, or in historical factual disciplines, helps us make better decisions today, in our attempt to gauge the future.

Rating:
Summary: This book should be subtitled "Have a Plan B"
Review: Whether you agree with Ravi Batra's theories or not, his advice on preparing for and dealing with severe economic downturns is golden. Having read this book in the 1980's, and kept the possibility of a second great depression in mind, we are successfully (emotionally and financially) dealing with a stretch of my professional husband's unemployment lasting over a year. I would recommend this book, and especially the worst-case worksheets, for anyone at risk for layoffs.

Rating:
Summary: This book should be subtitled "Have a Plan B"
Review: Whether you agree with Ravi Batra's theories or not, his advice on preparing for and dealing with severe economic downturns is golden. Having read this book in the 1980's, and kept the possibility of a second great depression in mind, we are successfully (emotionally and financially) dealing with a stretch of my professional husband's unemployment lasting over a year. I would recommend this book, and especially the worst-case worksheets, for anyone at risk for layoffs.