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The hype and market valuations surrounding certain Internet stocks may lead one to conclude that the e-commerce race is over--or nearly so. Clearly, the Internet has caught traditional companies off guard, giving the more nimble dot coms a huge head start. But the race is far from over, says Mary Modahl, a vice president at Forrester Research. In Now or Never, she argues that we are in the first year of a "ten year transition in the way consumers shop and save," and that winning in the Internet space not only requires identifying consumers that are most likely to take their shopping online, but exploiting the new and different business models made possible by online commerce. Modahl believes that conventional demographics, which segment populations according to their income and education, is a poor predictor of online behavior. As an alternative, she advances Forrester Research's work on "technographics," which measure consumers' attitudes toward technology. Forrester has found that 52 percent of the population is optimistic about technology and is "marching happily towards online shopping," and she shows how companies can better target their marketing strategies to meet this growing legion of consumers. In addition, Modahl considers the "post-Internet competitive environment," which she thinks will be "far more fluid and responsive to changes in supply and demand." Using examples of traditional industries that have had their business models turned upside down by Internet economies--newspapers, travel agencies, and brokerages--Modahl offers ways that the old guard can better cope with technology change, channel conflict, and their own inertia toward this new marketplace. Well written and presented, Now or Never is a concise distillation of Forrester Research's approach to e-commerce. Anyone whose livelihood is connected to--or threatened by--the relentless march of the Internet would do well to read and consider this book. --Harry C. Edwards
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