Rating: 
Summary: The best book you could buy
Review: Harry S., Jr. Dent is fresher than a Junior Mint and chewier than a Ju Ju Bee. If you're a working girl in the oldest profession than buy this book; it'll benefit you like it did me. Come join the fun that is the ROARING 2000s!
Rating:
Summary: Hits his target one more time
Review: I find Dent to be one of the most interesting financial prophets of the 20th century. He predicted the rise of DOW when others were looking for gloom and doom. His view of demographic waves was and is on the money. I work with a finacial advisor and find value in the relationship. Dent's point about life and the value of advise speaks to me. (I have better things to with my time.) For those of you who are interested in gaining knowledge and insight in the financial markets this book is for you!
Rating: 
Summary: A big disappointment for a big fan
Review: I loved "The Great Boom Ahead" and "The Roaring 2000s", two other (and in my opinion much, much better), books by Harry Dent. These first two books really inspired me to look out at what is happening and to make informed investing decisions based on knowledge of likely trends.Most of this rather original thinking is rehashed in this new installment, without much added, other than frequent exhortations to find a financial advisor. Dent even cautions against going on the Internet and investing for oneself without the aid of a so-called objective financial advisor. I found this apparent pandering to the traditional brokerage industry to be highly ironic, given the individualistic spin, the maverick philosophy, so evident in his earlier works.
Rating:
Summary: How this guy ever got published is a lesson in itself...
Review: I read this book back in 2000 before the crash and agreed with
some of his reasoning as to the mechanics and ideas which would be implemented in the New Millenium, but disagreed with his
belief that there would be such great prosperity,as history ALWAYS repeats itself.
But alas, no one wants a pessimist. Then he came out with the "Roaring 2000's Investor", which again was creative and showed brilliance, but proved to by flawed on many levels. Now he has another book slated to come out "The Greatest Bull Market in History: 2003-2008: Investment, Business and Life Strategies - For the Great Boom Ahead and the Great Bust to Follow" If his past predictions are any indication, this title itself is already filled with hindsight and error. I can tell you there will be no sustainable bull market on any of the indexes for at least the next decade. I must admit I would like to speak with this guy. With a few real life experiences under his belt he may really hit the target, but so far the best title for a book would be "The Roaring 2000's: How to prosper by making the best seller list by publishing books that make people believe you have the answers." Lession #1: Don't put dates in the titles of your books that try to predict the future"
Rating: 
Summary: HARRY DENT DOES IT AGAIN!
Review: If you like Harry Dent's positive outlook you will appreciate the Y2K section in James L. Paris' latest book, The Christian Financial Crisis."
Rating:
Summary: Unfortunately Harry Dent is Wrong But There Is Hope
Review: In late 1999 the stock market was in a hey day. I would walk into work in the morning and my supervisor would say to me, "Ron, your stock is already up three points!" Then I came across this book by Harry Dent, and I showed it to some co-workers. At the time, this book seemed to be a revelation to us.
In the early 90s, Harry Dent predicted that in the late 90s, the stock market would hit 10,000, and we would have low inflation and low unemployment. That indeed happended, so it seemed reasonable to listen to his further prognostications. In this book, he predicts that the DOw would hit 40,000 in the year 2007, followed by a sharp bear market that would last for about 10 years.
What was his basis for predicting this? Well, lets call it the "birthrate theory." Harry Dent took a chart of birthrates, shifted it by about 44 years, and saw that this chart had a strong correlation with the ups and downs of the economy and the stock market. Why shift the birth rate chart 44 years? Because that is the age by and large where people reach their peak in earning and spending. They have reached maximum productivity--they are old enough to have learned what needs learning, and young enough before the natural decline of aging. So basically, when the group of those around 44 years old increases, so goes the theory, the stock market and the economy goes up, and when the group of those around 44 years old decreases, the market and economy is in decline. Thus that "baby boom generation" when they entered their 40s, fueled the market and economic surge of the 80s and 90s. An interesting point to be made concerning Dent's interpretaion of this data is that while people conventioanlly start the "baby boom generation" from 1945, Dent starts it a couple of years earlier, and I do think he is right, the increase in birthrates started earlier than 1945.
One objection to Dent's theory that has been made--by Dr. Shiller who wrote "Irrational Exuberance"--is that why did not this demographic birthrate theory affect other asset classes, like real estate. A reply to this objection from the basis of the birthrate theory is that it has but in a different way--that since people buy homes generally when they are in thier 20s and 30s, then you should shift the bithrate chart around 30 years for real estate. And this seems to be confirmed by the experience of the 1970s, when real estates values went up when the baby boom generation was in the 20s and 30s.
A devasting objection to Dent's theory, however, is that is has been for all intents and purposes been falsified. For the market to reach 40,000 in the year 2007 from this point today, the market would have TO HAVE AN ANNUAL RATE OF RETURN OF AT LEAST 25 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. The odds of that happening are astronomical and has no precedent in stock market history.
Dent had a chart showing the rates of return of the market by decade. He pointed out that while there has been two consecutive decades of above average market returns (for example, the 50s and 60s, and the 80s and 90s) there has never been THREE CONSECUTIVE decades of above average returns--but the exeception would be this time. Dent should have stuck with the decade analysis.
So it looks like that the period of 2000-2010 will be a decade of below average returns for the stock market, comparable to the 30s and the 70s.
This book has some value in that it can get one to think in broader historical terms about the markets. Part of the title of this review/essay is "but there is hope." As the decade analysis of the market shows, bear markets do not last forever, though they may last a decade, and then they are followed by bull markets. SO perhaps around the year 2010 a new bull market will begin and it would be a good time to be invested.
If one is interested in good investment advice, I have been following Bob Brinker lately. He has a radio show about investing heard on stations around the country. In early 2000 he told his listeners to get out of the NASDAQ and the market; Brinker was right in calling the top. He has not yet gone back into the market--thus avoiding terrible declines for his followers. Mr. Brinker, against the academic view, thinks he can "time" the market, and believes that one can make money on rallies in the general bear makret. He has not, at this time, yet given a signal when this "counter-cyclical" rally in the bear market will occur. Stay tuned.
Rating:
Summary: Unfortunately Harry Dent is Wrong But There Is Hope
Review: In late 1999 the stock market was in a hey day. I would walk into work in the morning and my supervisor would say to me, "Ron, your stock is already up three points!" Then I came across this book by Harry Dent, and I showed it to some co-workers. At the time, this book seemed to be a revelation to us.
In the early 90s, Harry Dent predicted that in the late 90s, the stock market would hit 10,000, and we would have low inflation and low unemployment. That indeed happended, so it seemed reasonable to listen to his further prognostications. In this book, he predicts that the DOw would hit 40,000 in the year 2007, followed by a sharp bear market that would last for about 10 years.
What was his basis for predicting this? Well, lets call it the "birthrate theory." Harry Dent took a chart of birthrates, shifted it by about 44 years, and saw that this chart had a strong correlation with the ups and downs of the economy and the stock market. Why shift the birth rate chart 44 years? Because that is the age by and large where people reach their peak in earning and spending. They have reached maximum productivity--they are old enough to have learned what needs learning, and young enough before the natural decline of aging. So basically, when the group of those around 44 years old increases, so goes the theory, the stock market and the economy goes up, and when the group of those around 44 years old decreases, the market and economy is in decline. Thus that "baby boom generation" when they entered their 40s, fueled the market and economic surge of the 80s and 90s. An interesting point to be made concerning Dent's interpretaion of this data is that while people conventioanlly start the "baby boom generation" from 1945, Dent starts it a couple of years earlier, and I do think he is right, the increase in birthrates started earlier than 1945.
One objection to Dent's theory that has been made--by Dr. Shiller who wrote "Irrational Exuberance"--is that why did not this demographic birthrate theory affect other asset classes, like real estate. A reply to this objection from the basis of the birthrate theory is that it has but in a different way--that since people buy homes generally when they are in thier 20s and 30s, then you should shift the bithrate chart around 30 years for real estate. And this seems to be confirmed by the experience of the 1970s, when real estates values went up when the baby boom generation was in the 20s and 30s.
A devasting objection to Dent's theory, however, is that is has been for all intents and purposes been falsified. For the market to reach 40,000 in the year 2007 from this point today, the market would have TO HAVE AN ANNUAL RATE OF RETURN OF AT LEAST 25 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. The odds of that happening are astronomical and has no precedent in stock market history.
Dent had a chart showing the rates of return of the market by decade. He pointed out that while there has been two consecutive decades of above average market returns (for example, the 50s and 60s, and the 80s and 90s) there has never been THREE CONSECUTIVE decades of above average returns--but the exeception would be this time. Dent should have stuck with the decade analysis.
So it looks like that the period of 2000-2010 will be a decade of below average returns for the stock market, comparable to the 30s and the 70s.
This book has some value in that it can get one to think in broader historical terms about the markets. Part of the title of this review/essay is "but there is hope." As the decade analysis of the market shows, bear markets do not last forever, though they may last a decade, and then they are followed by bull markets. SO perhaps around the year 2010 a new bull market will begin and it would be a good time to be invested.
If one is interested in good investment advice, I have been following Bob Brinker lately. He has a radio show about investing heard on stations around the country. In early 2000 he told his listeners to get out of the NASDAQ and the market; Brinker was right in calling the top. He has not yet gone back into the market--thus avoiding terrible declines for his followers. Mr. Brinker, against the academic view, thinks he can "time" the market, and believes that one can make money on rallies in the general bear makret. He has not, at this time, yet given a signal when this "counter-cyclical" rally in the bear market will occur. Stay tuned.
Rating:
Summary: Unfortunately Harry Dent is Wrong But There Is Hope
Review: In late 1999 the stock market was in a hey day. I would walk into work in the morning and my supervisor would say to me, "Ron, your stock is already up three points!" Then I came across this book by Harry Dent, and I showed it to some co-workers. At the time, this book seemed to be a revelation to us.
In the early 90s, Harry Dent predicted that in the late 90s, the stock market would hit 10,000, and we would have low inflation and low unemployment. That indeed happended, so it seemed reasonable to listen to his further prognostications. In this book, he predicts that the DOw would hit 40,000 in the year 2007, followed by a sharp bear market that would last for about 10 years.
What was his basis for predicting this? Well, lets call it the "birthrate theory." Harry Dent took a chart of birthrates, shifted it by about 44 years, and saw that this chart had a strong correlation with the ups and downs of the economy and the stock market. Why shift the birth rate chart 44 years? Because that is the age by and large where people reach their peak in earning and spending. They have reached maximum productivity--they are old enough to have learned what needs learning, and young enough before the natural decline of aging. So basically, when the group of those around 44 years old increases, so goes the theory, the stock market and the economy goes up, and when the group of those around 44 years old decreases, the market and economy is in decline. Thus that "baby boom generation" when they entered their 40s, fueled the market and economic surge of the 80s and 90s. An interesting point to be made concerning Dent's interpretaion of this data is that while people conventioanlly start the "baby boom generation" from 1945, Dent starts it a couple of years earlier, and I do think he is right, the increase in birthrates started earlier than 1945.
One objection to Dent's theory that has been made--by Dr. Shiller who wrote "Irrational Exuberance"--is that why did not this demographic birthrate theory affect other asset classes, like real estate. A reply to this objection from the basis of the birthrate theory is that it has but in a different way--that since people buy homes generally when they are in thier 20s and 30s, then you should shift the bithrate chart around 30 years for real estate. And this seems to be confirmed by the experience of the 1970s, when real estates values went up when the baby boom generation was in the 20s and 30s.
A devasting objection to Dent's theory, however, is that is has been for all intents and purposes been falsified. For the market to reach 40,000 in the year 2007 from this point today, the market would have TO HAVE AN ANNUAL RATE OF RETURN OF AT LEAST 25 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. The odds of that happening are astronomical and has no precedent in stock market history.
Dent had a chart showing the rates of return of the market by decade. He pointed out that while there has been two consecutive decades of above average market returns (for example, the 50s and 60s, and the 80s and 90s) there has never been THREE CONSECUTIVE decades of above average returns--but the exeception would be this time. Dent should have stuck with the decade analysis.
So it looks like that the period of 2000-2010 will be a decade of below average returns for the stock market, comparable to the 30s and the 70s.
This book has some value in that it can get one to think in broader historical terms about the markets. Part of the title of this review/essay is "but there is hope." As the decade analysis of the market shows, bear markets do not last forever, though they may last a decade, and then they are followed by bull markets. SO perhaps around the year 2010 a new bull market will begin and it would be a good time to be invested.
If one is interested in good investment advice, I have been following Bob Brinker lately. He has a radio show about investing heard on stations around the country. In early 2000 he told his listeners to get out of the NASDAQ and the market; Brinker was right in calling the top. He has not yet gone back into the market--thus avoiding terrible declines for his followers. Mr. Brinker, against the academic view, thinks he can "time" the market, and believes that one can make money on rallies in the general bear makret. He has not, at this time, yet given a signal when this "counter-cyclical" rally in the bear market will occur. Stay tuned.
Rating:
Summary: HAS HARRY PUT A DENT IN YOUR PORTFOLIO?
Review: On the cover of The Roaring 2000s Investor is an endorsement from Barron's that reads "if you're worried that the bull market is about to peter out, you might want to talk to Harry S. Dent." Then again, you may not. Published in 1999 just months before the bull market peak, Harry Dent, a self-described "economic futurist," was forecasting all sorts of fabulous things, including Dow 44,000 by 2008. (Unfortunately, even if the Dow quadruples over the next six years, we still won't get there.) On the very first page he insists that the bull market - merely weeks from the end - is fully intact and "we are seeing a vindication of the very fundamentals of baby boom earning and spending that I have been forecasting." I highlight these remarks not because Harry Dent was wrong. (In the investment forecasting business, everyone is served a helping of humble crow from time to time.) It's just that Harry Dent was wrong in the most spectacular ways. In fact, as I perused the book I couldn't help but chuckle every other page or so. And ultimately I was left wondering why I didn't reach for a Harry Dent book from time to time rather than settling for James Thurber or P.G. Wodehouse. Just listen to some of these zingers: "Your best strategy is to bet on the predictable spending and saving trends of this massive generation which will combine to drive the stock market up until 2007 or 2008." Whoops. "Many countries will continue to boom even after the United States and many other countries falter after 2009." 2009? Economists consistently fail to correctly forecast even the year ahead. Our futurist was no exception. "The technology revolution will favor internet-oriented companies." No, the internet index would decline a breathtaking 81% in the two years following his book's publication. "We could see the Dow first go as low as 10,000 to 15,000 during the down phase of the generation cycle into 2020 to 2023." Here is a man - with a straight face - who presumes to tell us now what the market will do between 2020 and 2023. I may as well predict scattered showers at your 4th of July picnic in 2012. But he goes right on making similar pronouncements. "Argentina should see moderate growth into 2015 and then stronger growth into 2025." No, Argentina was about to suffer a complete financial collapse followed by rioting and social anarchy. "We are entering the beginning of an 80-year cycle of mass customization, a cycle that will continue over the next 500 years or so." Whatever you say, Harry. After a few pages, Mr. Dent begins to sound like a man who's forgotten to take his medication. And yet his books have sold hundreds of thousands of copies. (To people interested in investing now in the colonization of space, I presume.) Some day Mr. Dent may learn that the key to investment success is not pretending to know things that can't be known, but rather understanding and controlling the things that can. But then, that practical, common sense message won't sell thousands of books. And I'll bet that's one thing Mr. Dent does understand.
Rating:
Summary: Best Summary of How to Apply Demographics to Your Life
Review: Peter Drucker has been teaching the importance of demographics to business people and investors for decades. In all this time, only Harry S. Dent, Jr. has created a practical look at the implications of demographics for each of us. In creating this book, he has moved well beyond his earlier work, and created information that each person must have. For a popular book, this is written in a way that makes it very accessible and easy to use. I highly recommend that you get this book, read it, and refer to the many wonderful summary graphs daily to remind you what questions to ask yourself about how demographics will affect your life, business, and investments. I look forward to reading future books from Mr. Dent.
As you will notice when you read the book, demographics is not fate . . . so economies do vary from what their potential is. Pay attention to the thought process rather than the conclusions.
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