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The 500 Year Delta: What Happens After What Comes Next

The 500 Year Delta: What Happens After What Comes Next

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Product Info Reviews

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Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Challenging if not perfect
Review:

The book does what good books should: it makes you think.

However, the authors are (1) derivative in some cases (much of their work can be found in Thomas Handy's explorations of how the world of work is changing, such as in his book, The Age of Unreason, c. 1989); (2) don't footnote/cite their statistics (eg, 12 percent of Americans trust public-interest messages from large corporations - says who?); and (3) are somewhat "new-agey" (Part Four uses subheads pulled from the Noble Truths of Buddhism, not to imply that Buddhism is a new age religion).

They criticize macroeconomics, stating "when consumers control the market equation, they can have whatever it is that they want." Huh? Consumers have unlimited resources? Since when?

A good fast skim if you are familiar with changes in the world of work. Neat trivia (list of things that existed in 1960 that no longer exist today). Wild projections for 500 years hence.

I found on my second review that I argued more with the authors (in the margins of the book) than on the first take (which was on an airplane). That said, I'm surprised the book is not on Amazon.Com's top 50 business or computing lists.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Lack Focus
Review: Good start, but lacks coherent thought.

Rating: 2 stars
Summary: Baloney warning
Review: I couldn't agree more with the reviewer from "Sodom-on-the-Bay." Beware authors whose self-esteem rests so strongly on their image as iconoclasts. Beware them particularly when they resort to "paradox" as an explanation for any line of reasoning that leaves them painted into a corner. On the other hand, these guys are trying to take a fresh look at business and marketing conundrums, and their stories often yield interesting insights which, unfortunately, they're not so great at articulating or generalizing from. Instead, they opt for sounding "deep" by claiming that the stories defy traditional analysis. A useful rule of thumb might be to skim any paragraph that deals in abstracts (high balderdash quotient there) and pay more attention to the anecdotes.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Find yourself in a day just on the other side of tomorrow!
Review: If you wonder more often these days just where you've been, where you might be going, and most important, where you are right now, here is a book that can set your course. Watts Wacker is resident futurist at SRI Consulting, a famous Stanford University spinoff. Jim Taylor directs global marketing for Gateway 2000, known for its highly successful brand of computer marketing.

"In a truly reasonable world, you could plan your way to a reasonable end... How reasonable is the world we find ourselves in today?"

As we enter the last year (or two) of the 20th Century, more and more of us are asking, "Where am I and where am I going?" If I thought I knew the answers before I read this book, I am thoroughly disabused of those answers now. The fly in grandfather's remedial ointment is the rate of change, not just change itself. Today ends at midnight; tomorrow is a different day. Trite? Not so --note the word "different" where the old saw reads "another day." But even more to point, tomorrow is already here!

"Houses stagnate in value while bundles of stock rise along a curve no one can understand. Instead of planned obsolescence, we have moved into an era of inherent obsolescence. The computer is outdated the moment we open up the box it has come in; the food processor breaks, we chuck it; the television breaks; out it goes... Real wealth is intangible, not tangible. The temporary is everywhere. And the temporary and intangible, lo and behold, are a perfect fit for the Age of Chaos."

As I look about, how can I otherwise than see that the age of chaos is not next year, nor beginning in 2001. It's here, now. The authors are right. But one need not dwell on this fact of life - rather, we look out over the horizon to use this gift of knowledge wisely. In a world in which 25 years of dedicated service to a company is suddenly terminated with or without ceremony --the "pink slip"-- what does one do about "job security?"

History teaches that there are a succession of 500-year "Deltas," relatively flat planes followed by precipitous change. We are leaving one of those deltas and entering the next one, even as we cross over into a succeeding millenium. We are entering an age of possibility - really of infinite possibility. Yesterday, although a memory, is dead. We will bury it in the chaos of this year, the next decade, and the next.

Towards the book's end there is this intriguing passage: "Twice before in this book we have asked you to find yourself in the scenarios we have created --the first of an uneasy sleeper, the second of that same uneasy sleeper's next day. Now we ask you to find yourself a last time, in a day just on the other side of tomorrow..." --end--

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Find yourself in a day just on the other side of tomorrow!
Review: If you wonder more often these days just where you've been, where you might be going, and most important, where you are right now, here is a book that can set your course. Watts Wacker is resident futurist at SRI Consulting, a famous Stanford University spinoff. Jim Taylor directs global marketing for Gateway 2000, known for its highly successful brand of computer marketing.

"In a truly reasonable world, you could plan your way to a reasonable end... How reasonable is the world we find ourselves in today?"

As we enter the last year (or two) of the 20th Century, more and more of us are asking, "Where am I and where am I going?" If I thought I knew the answers before I read this book, I am thoroughly disabused of those answers now. The fly in grandfather's remedial ointment is the rate of change, not just change itself. Today ends at midnight; tomorrow is a different day. Trite? Not so --note the word "different" where the old saw reads "another day." But even more to point, tomorrow is already here!

"Houses stagnate in value while bundles of stock rise along a curve no one can understand. Instead of planned obsolescence, we have moved into an era of inherent obsolescence. The computer is outdated the moment we open up the box it has come in; the food processor breaks, we chuck it; the television breaks; out it goes... Real wealth is intangible, not tangible. The temporary is everywhere. And the temporary and intangible, lo and behold, are a perfect fit for the Age of Chaos."

As I look about, how can I otherwise than see that the age of chaos is not next year, nor beginning in 2001. It's here, now. The authors are right. But one need not dwell on this fact of life - rather, we look out over the horizon to use this gift of knowledge wisely. In a world in which 25 years of dedicated service to a company is suddenly terminated with or without ceremony --the "pink slip"-- what does one do about "job security?"

History teaches that there are a succession of 500-year "Deltas," relatively flat planes followed by precipitous change. We are leaving one of those deltas and entering the next one, even as we cross over into a succeeding millenium. We are entering an age of possibility - really of infinite possibility. Yesterday, although a memory, is dead. We will bury it in the chaos of this year, the next decade, and the next.

Towards the book's end there is this intriguing passage: "Twice before in this book we have asked you to find yourself in the scenarios we have created --the first of an uneasy sleeper, the second of that same uneasy sleeper's next day. Now we ask you to find yourself a last time, in a day just on the other side of tomorrow..." --end--

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Interesting and insightful but overly wordy
Review: In short the book could have been about 60% shorter. At times the hypothesis drawn are illuminating but very often the authors are spending entirely too much time to support their insights. My feeling is that anyone reading a book such as this doesn't necessarily need a whole lot of convincing as long as there is some sound rationale and telling examples to support the theories.

Having just completed the book I would recommend that anyone interested in picking up the book just look at the last 15 pages to get a sense of the nature of the book where the authors make predictions regarding the next 500 months and the next 500 years.

There are however some very keen insights on the power and use of technology (connectivity), tribalism, the role of corporations and government, business and social constructs, the importance of constant education, the nature of chaos, the power of the consumer... and almost all of this is addressed from primarily a marketing perspective.

There was very little that was written that I disagreed with but I feel like the same thing could have been said in many fewer words.

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Interesting and insightful but overly wordy
Review: In short the book could have been about 60% shorter. At times the hypothesis drawn are illuminating but very often the authors are spending entirely too much time to support their insights. My feeling is that anyone reading a book such as this doesn't necessarily need a whole lot of convincing as long as there is some sound rationale and telling examples to support the theories.

Having just completed the book I would recommend that anyone interested in picking up the book just look at the last 15 pages to get a sense of the nature of the book where the authors make predictions regarding the next 500 months and the next 500 years.

There are however some very keen insights on the power and use of technology (connectivity), tribalism, the role of corporations and government, business and social constructs, the importance of constant education, the nature of chaos, the power of the consumer... and almost all of this is addressed from primarily a marketing perspective.

There was very little that was written that I disagreed with but I feel like the same thing could have been said in many fewer words.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Better than Peters
Review: Like Tom Peters, the authors describe how profoundly different the workplace is today, and how new, surprising behavior can lead to success in today's chaotic business world. But in the last few things I've read by him, Peters has digressed into a self-consiously hip attitude without much underneath. Taylor and Wacker are on a quest for enlightenment in the style of the 60s and 70s -- mixing a hefty dose of spirituality in with business prescriptions/descriptions. I believe in the sincerity of these guys. They've lived through a lot, evidently, yet keep a sense of wonder and appreciation for the things we're living through as the millenium approaches.

Rating: 5 stars
Summary: Q: "What's wackier than Taylor-made? A: "Not much!"
Review: Making sense of our world, never an easy or a completed task (our pretensions regarding the latter notwithstanding!), just got substantially easier with the appearance of The 500 Year Delta. The book works on several levels, not the least of which is its utility as a survival guide to the new ways and definitions of work and relationships which await us as our separate rivers dump us into the roiling, clear-as-mud, yet nutriemt-rich waters of that Delta.The authors' uncommon sense (e.g., that corporations will have embassies, not governmets; that governments' chief values will be to effect transfer payments and provide entertainment, etc.) hit at the very foundations of our value systems. They are, nonetheless, cogently and coherently conceived and presented. Accepting their theses will lead the reader along seemingly tortuous paths, and will require several iterations of what the literary critics used to term the "willing suspension of disbelief." Those suspensions will be frequent, and some will be of serious length. Particularly challenging will be the authors' insistence that the utility of reason has played itself out, and their consigning of hierarchies to the dustbin of history. A must read for those of us in government service (an emerging oxymoron?), but not recommended for those therein in management positions!

Rating: 4 stars
Summary: Excerpted in Wired magazine
Review: Originally, I became interested in this book by reading an excerpt printed in Wired magazine. Wired only printed the glossary of the book but that was enough to pique my interest. In general, I think that is how the book should be approached. It is thought-provoking and interesting but should not be taken too seriously. It is certainly enjoyable, especially if you enjoy Wired.


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