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Summary: History does not repeate itself, but it does rhyme - S.C.
Review: "Is it possible, then, that two entirely different methods and theories can lead to exactly the same prediction? Absolutely not ..."So writes another reviewer in a failed attempt to refute the amazing re-discovery by Strauss&Howe of the generational archetypes that are hardwired into the human psyche and that help propel the psycho/social/spiritual development of the species. The authors have laid out a template for understanding the underlying rhythms of human history that has enormous predictive value for what we can expect the next 25 years to feel like at every level of human experience. I have given this book as a gift now for 3 years and the responses are totally polarized; either people accept the ideas having an "Ah Ha!" experience or reject them (like the reviewer above) without any serious argument to refute the hypothesis. When two entirely different methods or theories lead to identical conclusions, that is just the time when you should wake up and realize that an underlying truth has been uncovered! Human history beats to a rhythm as reliable as that of a human heart. Jung first wrote of the "collective unconscious" and now Strauss&Howe describe how it manifests in human history over each human lifetime. This is a must read for anyone looking to make sense of the world, for today and tomorrow.
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Summary: Not at all what it purports to be....
Review: "The Fourth Turning, an American Prophecy", by William Strauss and Neil Howe, is a Gordian knot of glib, facile generalization, intellectually dishonest, and riddled with pungent strands of self-loathing (read: Boomer Bashing). This book is simply another tiresome exercise in NeoCon, crypto-ideology. How unfortunate for us all of us that it was Strauss and Howe who thought to trot out the dusty old "cycles of history" scheme for this generation, because readers should know that, in spite of the clumsy polemic and shoddy prose in this book, (I would insert an example here, but there are just too many to choose from) there really may be something valuable in the "cycles of history" theory. Unfortunately, you won't find much to value here; for these two authors, the "cycles" theory is simply a vehicle for conservative ideology. I seriously doubt that I will ever read either Howe or Strauss again; these boys have obviously suckled at the poisoned teats of the William Bennetts of this world for far too long to ever again create anything resembling honest scholarship. I guess we'll have to wait for another generation with a bit more intellectual integrity to come along to see if the "cycles" theory holds water.
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Summary: Charting my generation into the Crisis
Review: Some people have claimed reading this book is a waste of time and have compared the Strauss and Howe theory to "a very flaky, new-agey" prophecy. But since September 11th, this book has been in a heap of debate over whether it really gives an accurate theory. As a member of the Millennial generation, I have found the book to be the single-most original and insightful commentary on history and society. Some people think the theory makes false generational characterizations and charge the authors with not providing evidence to make such generalizations. First off, theories are designed to make sense of the world. They are based on historical trends, statistics, and years of intellectual discussion. This theory does not directly dictate how a teenager in Illinois may live her life, but it does provide a much more credible account of things to come in her life than she could have possibly imagined herself. It is insensitive and politically incorrect to suggest that the events of September 11th were "predictable." I do not think that the theory makes any indication that it was predictable; however, the way people are reacting to those events DOES support the theory. The thing that makes this occasion unique compared to major tragic events of the eighties or nineties is that the mood of the nation has changed. That mood, as the theory suggests, is propelled by the alignment of generations right now. As the generations move closer towards this alignment, more characteristics that Strauss and Howe have established will become more visible, and we will begin to see the impending crisis. What we are seeing right now is that 92% of Americans are in support of war and in support of the Bush administration. Nothing like that would have ever happened during the eighties or nineties. As far as my generation goes, I'm sure there are trends that have happened that the authors didn't consider or that were unpredictable. But figures such as the media really have made us everything we think we aren't. Even MTV, the network of "individualism," has been our prime influence of conformity in the music scene. Media has, directly or indirectly, encouraged us to be cooperative, dutiful, and optimistic. This form of passive commercialism has been shoved down our throats, and the fact that we don't even notice it demonstrates how conditioned we've become to accept what we are told. Since 1991, Strauss and Howe have accurately predicted the mood of the nation. Their theory is also supported by 400 years of American history. I would highly suggest this book to anyone, even skeptics, as an invaluable analysis of the American landscape.
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Summary: Excellent book
Review: This book will change the way you look at the world. Smart and prophetic.
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Summary: Try Tarot cards
Review: This is just another Nostradamic prophecy. It may have social ramifications listed, but a few of them are bound to be right no matter what happens. After all, if you asked a 100 people to guess your number between 1 and 10, about 10 of them would get it right. This is a kooky, neurotic theory of predictable future that strongly rings of some of the economic cycle prediction wonks of the 1970s. Millions of people have made prophecies...almost all of them have come out to be wrong. I heard one of the authors on the Art Bell show and there is definitely a very flaky, new-agey undercurrent to this whole thing. I should also add that there are a lot of other prophecies too in this book that turned out dead wrong. Try Tarot cards instead...after all, out of the whole pack, there are bound to be a few cards that accurately correspond.
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Summary: Many incorrect predictions - especially for my generation!
Review: I can understand that generalizations about differences between the generations can have an effect on society. I also understand that the generalizations Strauss and Howe make about each generation don't apply to 100% of the people in a given generation. But the ACTUAL generalizations they make about generations, archetypes and turnings get very weird sometimes and almost sound like caricatures, and some of the generalizations are just WRONG. I can accept the Fourth Turning depiction of Boomers, Silents and GI's as accurate, but the thirteenth generation, a.k.a. Generation X, is kind of off, and as for kids MY age, they just got us flat out wrong! When The Fourth Turning was written in 1997, it predicted that some disaster would come in what is now the present decade that would quake the earth...and then it would result in a crisis just like World War II and the Great Depression. In EVERY decade something disastrous is going to happen. Just predicting that something that horrible will happen does not make these people prophetic geniuses. The mere fact that thousands of people died after foreign terrorists hijacked some U.S. planes and the World Trade Center was destroyed does not mean that the theory of a fourth turning is true and very real. Some people who are flocking to this book seem to think the theory was right all along just because a crisis happened. If the book were written in 1977 about the 1980's, there would be people insisting that the fourth turning had arrived after Chernobyl blew up, or when the Iranian hostage crisis hit the U.S. heavily, or even maybe after the stock market crash of '87. But if you actually read the book, a lot more of it is about a change in society; the 1980's and 1990's world will seem obsolete. It sounds like individualism will basically see its end. It's like after the fourth turning starts the theory goes that people will make decisions QUICKLY and call war; people won't question things. These changes in society haven't happened after the attack. The TV screens said "America United" but everyone is arguing as always and it seems the people who are getting behind America are mostly adults around the same age as the authors...the same ones who were always proud of being Americans. This brings me to by big gripes about what The Fourth Turning has to say about my generation. According to The Fourth Turning, it actually says we're more like the G.I. Generation of World War II (!) than like any of the other generations. What the book has in store for us is the worst future imaginable. In fact, I became very angry sometimes when reading how it described my generation...clean-cut, all-American, conforming to what adults say without question...just like a huge bunch of Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts. It was just WRONG! I mean, this is the generation that goes to raves and never knew a world without MTV. We're the slam-dancers in little white hemp necklaces who go through angry discipline fights with our teachers every single day! It says in The Fourth Turning: "In the next Crisis, Millennials will prove false the supposition, born of the recent Awakening and Unraveling eras, that youth is ever the age for rebellion, alienation, or cynicism." There is absolutely no reason or evidence behind the prediction...all they've got is that we're supposed to come at the same spot in this mysterious cycle as the GI's. The sentences in here get more and more angering when they claim to speak for what most of the kids in high schools (and younger) now are like: "They will vex feminists by accepting a new mystique between the sexes", and want "government regulation". The worst part of all is when they say they know how the majority of us feel about a draft and "duty": "In exchange, old Boomers will impose a new duty of compulsory service, notwithstanding those elders' own youthful draft resistance. Millennials will not oppose this because they will see in it a path to public achievement. If inducted for war, Millennials will cast aside any earlier pacifism and march to duty. Like Power Rangers, they will not be averse to militarized mass violence, just to uncontrolled personal violence - quite the opposite of Boomer youths back in the Awakening. National leaders will not hesitate to mobilize and deploy them in huge armies. Where Boomer youths once screamed against duty and discipline, Boomer elders will demand and receive both from Millennial troops". We're sick enough of having to scream about discipline and "duty" stuff from narcissistic adults every day as it is. There are thousands of people making prophecies out there, and with that many, some of them, especially the vague ones, are bound to come true. Many of these base their prophecies on physical, metaphysical, psychological, economical, sociological - whatever - cycles, this as well as others. I just want to convince you not to read a book like this that doesn't get into the full heart of the WTC tragedy accurately and gets some of the generations, especially my "Millennial" generation, totally wrong.
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Summary: Harry Truman was right
Review: "The Future is only history that hasn't been written yet"
...Truman This book is an amazing work of research, analysis and perspective. Using the cyclical seasons of our cultural and generational history to show us the probable future
rings truer than anything Naisbitt or Toffler have penned. I am impressed and enlightened by these words. It makes me wish George W. could read.
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Summary: Fourth Turning - a fascinating read!
Review: I read this book 3 years ago, then read it again twice. Gave my copy to all my friends. I found it intriguing, to say the least. My historian friends have argued the exact accuracy of associating the dates of the 'turnings' with the events described by the authors. Nevertheless, I consider it a "must read".
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Summary: Page 273 - more than prophetic
Review: Acquiring a copy of this book after Sept. 11, 2001 was EXTREMELY difficult, but I got one and read it straight through. Chilling is page 273 and its clairvoyant description of what happened in New York. Even more disturbing is what could happen after. What I like most is that this book is NOT some silly psychic prediction of the future (e.g. the inaccurate and some times completely wrong Nostradamus.) - it just observes trends in history, categorizes them, then postulates what might happen based on this "loop" we seem to be in. In the same vein would be Frank Miller's 'Give Me Liberty' graphic novel - another vivid portrayal of a "fourth turning" scenario. Read 'The Fourth Turning' for yourself, if you can find a copy.
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Summary: Vindication
Review: An editorial from a publication above smugly remarks, "...can you blame these guys for wanting to make impending peril as exciting as possible? After all, they think we are headed toward 'events on par with the Revolution, the Civil War, or World War II' in the next 20 years." 9-11-01. They were right.
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