Moneyball

Rating:
Summary: Sabremetrics finally rules!
Review: As an avid fan of Bill James in the 1970s and 1980s, I have been constantly dismayed by the lack of respect given to his skilled analysis and observation of the game of baseball in his various writings over the years, including the now highly acclaimed Baseball Abstract. An interesting parallel can be drawn to another book, written on another subject almost 40 years ago, a book called Beat The Dealer by Dr. Edward Thorpe.

Dr. Thorpe, after many years of study and computer analysis, wrote his book in 1966 which factually explained how proper play and the use of card counting could defeat the casinos in the game of blackjack. It demythologized the long-held beliefs that only luck and money systems like the truly stupid Martingale could win at blackjack.

The book, which is completely and totally based in pure mathematical fact, was ignored by the "old men" of the casino business who "knew" that the house always had the edge. It took many years (and many card counters winning lots of money) for the casinos to wise up and start to fight back, often by having their own people finally read Thorpe's (and his later followers) books.

Once again, it is surprising it has taken so long for anyone in baseball to sit up and take notice of what those of us who followed sabremetrics and Bill James' analyses for many years always understood.

I agree with many of the reviews that Billy Beane is not portrayed as a particularly endearing person. However, he seems to clearly understand what the facts are here, and acts on them. This is the sign of a good manager and I expect his approach will win out in the long run. And yes, he is right, just like in blackjack, the math will win in the long run (the full season), but it is hell in the short run. Some reviewers have said that in the short run, you need to ignore what got you there and play a different game. However, my experiences in blackjack suggest the opposite, that you have to accept that the short run involves a lot of luck and hope that over the long run (even in the long run of a series of short run playoffs), that the luck will eventually even out and that playing the solid game you always do will finally bear fruit. But as someone who always played blackjack with a small bankroll, I know the variance sure plays havoc with your mind and can tempt you to go the wrong way.

One more point. Someone said they hoped that every manager in baseball is made to read this book. For the Oakland A's sake, I hope not, but even if they are, I doubt it will make much difference. Thorpe's book was widely available to read by anyone for many years, and even the casino bosses I talked to who read it would simply tell you that it was wrong. I expect that if every "old man" in baseball read this book, most would say it was something to be laughed at. It will take a generation to change this and in the meantime, I hope Oakland (and others) can ride the results to the bank (and the World Series).

Rating:
Summary: Very interesting and a bit misunderstood
Review: Some people seem to think Moneyball is mostly about Billy Beane being a genius, and as such there has been some backlash from those who don't see him that way. I don't think that's what the book is really about - it's about how a smart guy (Beane) figured out how to stay competitive with less money to spend than the competition. Essentially, Beane figured out what types of players are undervalued and spent his money there. It's hard to argue with the results in the regular season, although the team hasn't won in the playoffs.

Moneyball also talks about Bill James, my favorite baseball writer. James labored for years developing theories that were mostly ignored by the baseball establishment. Now many of James' ideas (and those of other sabermetricians) are being accepted by sportwriters, broadcasters and general managers.

Moneyball isn't just about baseball. It's about business, about using new knowledge rather than discounting it, and about evaluating risk. Some of the ideas in Moneyball could be applied to other endeavors.

Rating:
Summary: Would have been 5 stars, but a few parts bored me.
Review: This book was billed as some major expose on the inner workings and mind of Billy Beane - General Manager of the Oakland A's, and how he continues to make things work with no money against teams (mostly the Yankees) with significantly larger budgets. And for the most part, that's what it did.

Did I enjoy this? Absolutely yes - I totally enjoyed parts of it (the draft day stuff, Beane's behaviour in the park). But other parts bored me. For some reason we got an entire chapter on how A's pitcher Chad Bradford grew up as a kid. That's fine and all, but I don't see how that was germaine to the book. I also was a bit bored about Beane's time in the minors and what his life was like as a player. Yeah, I understand it's background to why he does what he does now, but quite frankly, it bored me.

But once the book got out of that, it was wonderful! Lots of insight into how a major league general manager's mind works - or at least Beane's. I agree there's something to sabremetrics (sp?) and it certainly seems to work for him. What I took away from this is that he seemed a bit naieve to think his way is the only way to do things, though. Running has it's uses. I get the impression that if he could, Beane would have every run scored on a bases loaded walk. :)

However, that's a lot of nitpicking on my part - the book is an enjoyable read. Provided you enjoy the "business" of baseball. If you don't enjoy the biz side of the sport, you probably wouldn't enjoy this book.

Rating:
Summary: Great analysis of Baseball economics
Review: I thought this book did a great job of comparing the two divergent schools of baseball thought - the dominant "old school" approach, exemplified by the old time baseball "lifers" who know what they know because they know it, and the up-and- coming objective, statistical based analysis of the game, embodied in this book by Billy Beane. The book, slanted towards the new wave of baseball men, does a superb job of punching holes into baseball truisms and dopey practices (I particularly loved the section regarding amateur draft day - why do teams continue to throw away high draft picks and millions of dollars on untested high schoolers - high schoolers!!! - when there are so many quality college players to choose from?). But, most of all, what this book does is prove that you don't necessarily need a lot of money to win - just good management, which is something that is apparently in short supply in baseball. Every baseball owner and general manager should be required to read this book.

Rating:
Summary: Raves from a Non-Baseball Fan
Review: I am not a baseball fan nor am I much of a sports fan at all, but I loved this book. I review mainly business books and the business principles of this book are well stated, easy to understand and truly innovative. If you are in a field that tracks statistics (especially the non-profit world) this book will make you think! But be careful, it will also make you question! Moneyball gets you outside the box (scores) of baseball and if you are a decent interpreter it will help you get out the box in your profession. Highly recommended!

Rating:
Summary: ADDICTING AND GREAT!
Review: man im a student and i just moved 2 texas from oakland. This book is so addicting! i came home 7:00 PM and read until 11:00. it's so kewl and talks about all the complexities of baseball. Author add's tons of humor and cuzz words. i went 2 the 20th STRAIGHT GAME for a dollar and the book depicts tht game like no other! EXCELLENT BOOK! Now i need 2 go finish mai hw tht i havent started...

Rating:
Summary: Misleading Title, Great Book
Review: Even though I enjoyed Lewis' Liar's Poker, The New New Thing, and Money Culture, I wasn't planning to read Moneyball. I didn't really care about the economics of baseball. Then I found out that Moneyball is about the Oakland A's, computers, and statistics. I had to read it.

Lewis reveals how the A's became (and have stayed) a top team even though they have one of the smallest payrolls in baseball. Billy Beane's (the general manager) method of using massive amounts of statistical information tells him what players to draft and what plays to execute under different conditions. The scouts and even the manager have become less important than his small staff of number-crunchers.

By following certain statistically-determined rules such as "never sacrifice bunt," (the numbers show that historically, it doesn't pay off) the A's have gone to the playoffs year after year. Beane refuses to draft players out of high school, because they haven't faced enough real competition to determine, statistically, if they will be any good. It's only in college and the minor leagues that players compile meaningful stats.

Not much money in Moneyball, just great writing, and a terrific story.

Rating:
Summary: Money Ball, an excellent story of success
Review: Money Ball, by Michael Lewis, is a non-fiction story about the success of Billy Beane, the current manager of the Oakland Athletics. It tells the story of his failure trying to make it to the major leagues as a boy out of high school, and what caused his breakdown. He was one of the premiere draft prospects in the country out of high school. However, he didn't want his future from high school to be in the major leagues. He wanted to study at Stanford, but when he said he didn't want to play baseball there, his acceptance was revoked, and he ended up getting drafted into the big leagues in the first round. After struggling in the minors for years, and only starting a few games in the majors, he retired before turning thirty, and asked to work in the front office for the Oakland Athletics as an advance scout. His heart wasn't in playing baseball. "In the end, Billy proved what he had been trying to say at least since he was seventeen years old: he didn't want to play ball."- Michael Lewis. After being a scout for the Athletics for some time, Billy Beane became the manager of the team. New management caused the Athletics to go from their high payroll status to a low-budget team. He had learned that the key to running a cost efficient baseball team was to look at the players' statistics, and to look for players who had experience playing in college, even though scouts looked mostly at high school players. Billy Beane had learned from a famous sports writer, Bill James, that on-base percentage was the key statistic for baseball. From that point, Billy Beane was looking for players who had statistics to prove their worth, and the statistics he looked at were on-base percentage and slugging percentage, because Billy Beane wanted players who could get on base and hit.

The theme of the book is that, in life, you shouldn't always have to do what you're good at, you should do what you want and like to do. Billy Beane proves this by retiring as a baseball player, and going to work in the front office as a scout, because he still loved the game. His determination allowed him to quickly work his way into the manager position of the team, and from then he worked harder than ever to create a successful baseball team. This relates to my life because while I am good at punting and like to play football, I'm not really interested in going on to play in college. My friends and family are all encouraging me to play, but my heart really isn't in football.

I would definitely recommend this book to everyone, especially baseball fans, because it gives a good in-depth look into how baseball teams are run. It is especially intriguing because it shows how effectively Billy Beane runs the low-budget Oakland Athletics, which is one of the best teams in the majors currently.

Rating:
Summary: Great baseball book, but missing the point
Review: I give this book 4 stars because it was a great book to read. A real pageturner.
However, Lewis missed the biggest reason the A's were and will be successful for a few more years: starting pitching.
The single (or rather three) greatest reason the A's are winners are because of Mulder, Hudson, and Zito.
Take out these 3 players, and all the stats mentioned in the book (on base percentage, slugging, ob plus slugging, etc) are meaningless to winning. These 3 pitchers consistently kept the A's in the games while their offense patiently waited for the other team's relievers to come out.
How many teams have 3 startes that can give you anywhere between 15-20 wins a season. Many teams have 2, but probably only Yankess can match that capability (but not after this season, as they'll lose the Rocket, Wells, and probably Pettite).
I was only somewhat surprised the A's haven't gotten further in the playoffs the past few seasons. It's almost always the case the teams with strong pitching wins out in the playoffs.
I took a look at the A's team stats for year 2003, and they were in the bottom third in the key stats mentioned in the books (OB, Slugging, BB, etc)

Also, I would liked to have more info on exactly why Billy Bean failed as a big leager. How did he hit over .500 as a junior in high school, then plummet down to .300's in his senior season? Why was he never able to adjust to minor and major league pitching? Book mentioned his mental weakness as well as "every pitcher having a slider". But if he was such a gifted athlete, he should have been adjusted and learned to his major league pitching.

So will we see a trend in current GM's being replaced by Harvard grads with a knack for statistics and scoring models? I don't think anytime soon, althought it is, for me, a refreshing change of order in baseball from old-timers to new faces with modern ideas.

So while my tone in the review might seem negative, I gave it high marks since I enjoyed reading it. I didn't necessarily agree with everything in the book, but objectively, it was a fun book to read with few insights into the game I never realized before.

Rating:
Summary: on the ball
Review: This is a very readable, witty book, which on the surface is about baseball, and the application of statistical analysis (sabremetrics) to the evaluating of players and strategies (knowledge of statistics is not necessary; he doesn't get into that: it's all about people and ideas). A basic knowledge of baseball is certainly useful, as Lewis drops the names of many players and mentions certain types of plays (i.e., hit and run, sacrifice bunt, etc.) without pausing to explain them, but also probably not essential. The people, and the lively writing of Lewis, are at the center here.

Lewis nicely weaves together the personal stories of the A's general manager (GM), Billy Beane, other team execs and scouts, and the individual players who were often considered misfits by other teams for a very particular reason (a year or two too old, an odd pitching motion, etc.), but were considered bargains by the As. He gives good detail for anyone who has ever wondered how teams decide who to draft, or how a general manager negotiates player deals with other GMs (and, like Red Auerbach was for the Celtics in the 60s, is so good at picking the pockets of other teams that after a while they are reticent to deal with him). And it's very interesting how Beane, a promising high school player who could be a poster child for the failure of the old, scout-driven school, takes it upon himself to dismantle that establishment with sabremetrics.

At a deeper level, the book is about several other matters:
- how does any organization evaluate and hire people?
- how does a radically new way of approaching a business develop?
- what -- and how long -- does it take for the new method to displace the previous way of doing things, and -- more importantly -- the people who do it that way?

In the case of baseball, the development of sabremetrics -- which developed the new strategic insights based on detailed analyses of baseball's mother lode of stats -- has been ongoing for about 30 years. And the success of the Oakland As -- consistently making the playoffs with a payroll one-third of the Yankees -- is its first major test, and victory. (A few other teams, like the Red Sox, recently say they are heavily influenced by it, although paying huge dollars for 37-year-old veterans like Curt Schilling may not be the best proof.) But at most clubs the old-timers who run the game still prefer to rely on their subjective judgments.

In other fields, such as high tech, the head-in-the-sand approach taken by most baseball people would lead to the death of the company. And perhaps that is why some companies do die. Certainly plenty of studies have shown that most companies make hiring decisions in ways that -- like most baseball teams -- are highly subjective. And what other industry has the historical, objective stats on performance that baseball has to develop the strategies from? Other than, perhaps, investment banking and direct marketing, maybe none. So, few could duplicate the depth of analysis, but many could profit from the style of thinking involved.

In any case, a very enjoyable read -- I read it in a couple days over Thanksgiving -- and highly recommended.