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Summary: A remarkable study of how we make decisions
Review: A good history of the mathematics, economics and psychology that goes into how humans have come to control risk and face down the fear of an uncertain future. I particularly enjoyed the humanizing portrayal of the mathematics involved in risk assessment. The section on financial derivatives I think will help the public at large understand the importance and utility of these instruments, despite their ability to be abused.One drawback of the book was that the mathematics was not always presented clearly. This is the case with the discussion of regression to the mean, where we are left with an impression that it is easier to get heads after tails is tossed. The representation of Chaos Theory as a belief system and not a science subject is also troubling. Note: "Mohammedan" is a derogatory term and Omar Khayyam was Persian, not Arab.
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Summary: Remarkable
Review: Don't be fooled by the title.There is nothing against GOD or any religion.As the title says, this is a remarkable story of Risk. I think this is a must read for every math and science enthusiast out there. You will certainly look the world out there in a different angle..well at least for a few days. In the end you will feel you have gained more knowledge.
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Summary: Path out of confusion
Review: A show how complex problems of probability are, how long it took to understand more, and the way to this goal. However I question some of the conclusions on random walk or the influence of Chaos Theory. Still a very valuable guide, e.g. understanding the difference between the probability of an event and the single (unprobable ) event that can happen too.
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Summary: Will reshape the way you view the world. Guaranteed.
Review: Fascinating book. I confess I couldn't understand all of it, but nevertheless it is a compelling story of man's quest to predict how the future will unfold. Great historic vignettes. You'll be richer (figuratively and, perhaps, literally) for reading it.
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Summary: Excellent account of the evolution of quantitative risk mgmt
Review: Throughout history mankind has consistently sought better ways to quantify the events observed around us. From Fibonacci numbers, to the origins of zero, to Bernoulli's St. Petersburg Paradox and beyond, Bernstien catalogs and explains history's most significant developments in quantitative risk management theory. This book is a must read for any student of risk management or finance or anyone interested in the background of modern finance theory. Written in terms well with the grasp of the average reader, Against the Gods is an entertaining and enlightening reading experience.
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Summary: Stimulating. A great read for those in the risk business
Review: No - not a text book, but certainly not meant to be one. The author does a great job of telling the story of risk - making it interesting and enlightening along the way. I've been in the risk business for better than a decade now. I'm glad I read this work.
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Summary: A little history, a little risk management.
Review: Clearly it is not the kind of book that I expected. I thought the book would discuss the types of risks involved in financial markets. It turned out to be almost pure history, and excluded the practical applications that I was expecting. However, it is an easy read, and quite interesting at times. If you really just want to know about role of risk in our lives, this is THE book. However, if you want to really study the art of risk management and how risk theories apply to real-life situations, I don't recommend this book.
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Summary: An outstanding book about the evolution of risk.
Review: Against the Gods is an outstanding book about the evolution of risk and man's attempt to understand it. Bernstein begins with ancient times and traces the history of numbers and probability leading eventually to today's seemingly complex financial world of portfolio theory, derivatives, and risk management techniques. Readers will learn about revolutionary thinkers including John von Neumann (inventor of game theory), Isaac Newton, Harry Markowitz (grandfather of portfolio theory), and the late Fischer Black (Black Scholes option formula) among others. Readers will also find enlightening stories about game theory, fibonacci numbers, chaos theory, the bell curve, regression to the mean, and more. Yet despite all the intelligence, computer power, and sophisticated techniques, Bernstein presents us with the growing body of evidence discovered by researchers including the late Amos Tversky and others that "reveals repeated patterns of irrationality, inconsistency, and incompetence in the ways human beings arrive at decisions and choices when faced with uncertainty." Against the Gods was chosen as one of Business Week's top 10 books of the year for 1996.
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Summary: Superb Book To Learn About The History Of Risk!
Review: What a fine well researched and accurate book on risk taking, oddsmaking and gambling. A must for people interested in exploring the history of gambling, gaming and risk taking. He outlines specific philosophies and histories of the worlds' greatest math pioneers, philosophers and scienctists. This is not what you expect but you will find it far more enjoyable, interesting and a blessing to learn about the various ways gaming, risk and oddsmaking developed from theories to testing to practice to analysis to today's methods of measuring risk and gaming. Mr. Bernstein is one great writer, author and researcher to our benefit if you read his book. One of the best books ever written. Also recommended: History of Gambling
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Summary: Managing risk - creating order from chaos
Review: Not what I expected at all. Very much an accompaniment to Fermat's Last Theorem rather than the analysis of risk I was expecting. Risk from risi care meaning to dare: i.e. risk is a choice not a fate. Mathematically blending new information into old to help make better decisions. Probability: ratio of favourable outcomes to total opportunities. Odds: ratio of favourable outcomes to unfavourable outcomes. A F M Smith "Any approach to scientific inference which seeks to legitimises an answer in response to complex uncertainty is for me a totalitarian parody of a rational learning process". Order is impossible to find unless disorder is there first. Changes in stock prices - normal distribution but based on unpredictable information so stock prices move in unpredictable ways. Reality contains sets of circumstances that people had never contemplated before. Reality violated the symmetry of the bell curve regressing to means that were unstable. Consequences of decisions rather than just inputs to decisions need to be evaluated. Patterns of the past do not always reveal the path to the future. Any given instance is so unique that there are no others similar in sufficient numbers to tabulate to draw any inferences of probability of results. Whatever had a measurable probability yesterday has an unknown probability tomorrow. We are not prisoners of an inevitable future, uncertainty makes us free. As we make decisions we change the world. Whether those decisions, make things better or worse depends on us. Game theory: true source of uncertainty lies in the intentions of others.
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